Avery Perri

Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.

NFL divisional round TD picks: Anytime touchdown scorer predictions on Adams, Cook and Barner

NFL divisional round TD picks

One running back, one tight end, and one wide receiver are featured in these NFL divisional round TD picks.

The pregame narrative: James Cook led the league in rushing yards and can be had at a fair price to score against the Denver Broncos. Elsewhere, Davante Adams should feast in the red zone against the Chicago Bears.

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Check out my top NFL divisional round TD picks, featuring a play on Seattle Seahawks tight end AJ Barner.

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NFL divisional round TD picks

Best bet: Cook to score (-134)

Cook didn’t get much recognition as an Offensive Player of the Year candidate — but he should have:

  • 3rd in carries (309)
  • 1st in rush yards (1,621)
  • 5th in touchdowns (14)

The fourth-year back is a legitimate bell cow, and his 5.2 YPC was second among those qualified by ESPN (min. 6.25 attempts/game).

That rare blend of usage and efficiency makes Cook a TD threat on a weekly basis.

Jacksonville bottled up Cook in the wild-card round, but the Jags hadn’t allowed a 75-yard rusher all season, so I’ll cut the RB some slack.

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Denver also owns an elite defence, but it wasn’t top-tier during the season’s home stretch. Following its Week 12 bye, the Broncos ranked 12th in EPA per play and gave up 21.5 PPG.

Cook also ran for 120 yards and a touchdown against Denver in the playoffs last year.

Key stat: Cook has 10 TDs in nine road games this year.

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NFL touchdown scorer bets

Adams to score (-138): Adams is one of the league’s top red zone threats. He led all WRs and TEs in these categories within the 10-yard line:

  • Targets (23)
  • Receptions (11)
  • Touchdowns (11)

The veteran didn’t score in Los Angeles’ wild-card match against the Carolina Panthers, but he did log 72 yards while catching five of 13 targets.

That puts any worry about his lingering hamstring injury to bed.

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Now, on to L.A.’s matchup.

Chicago’s red zone defence has been brutal lately. The Bears have allowed touchdowns on 75% of their opponents’ trips inside the 20-yard line over the last three games.

Last week, Jordan Love threw for four touchdowns in a hard-fought loss. And in the regular season, the Bears allowed the third-most touchdowns to opposing wideouts (20).

Adams should get his at Soldier Field.

NFL anytime TD prediction

Barner to score (+160): Barner is a star in the making.

The sophomore tight end does everything well and is practically always on the field. He played in 78% of Seattle’s offensive snaps this year, with no other tight end on the team cresting 30%.

Barner’s 14.9% target share ranks in the 81st percentile among tight ends, according to Rotowire.

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He scored seven TDs during the regular season and has a solid matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

San Francisco’s linebackers (the position group that typically covers tight ends) have allowed an 83.1 passer rating to opposing QBs, which ranks in the 29th percentile.

I expect the Niners to be overly-focused on stopping Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which should hopefully create some space for Barner to do damage.

NFL divisional round TD picks made at 1:15 p.m. ET on Jan. 14, 2026.

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NFL divisional round TD picks: Anytime touchdown scorer predictions on Adams, Cook and Barner

NFL divisional round TD picks

One running back, one tight end, and one wide receiver are featured in these NFL divisional round TD picks.

The pregame narrative: James Cook led the league in rushing yards and can be had at a fair price to score against the Denver Broncos. Elsewhere, Davante Adams should feast in the red zone against the Chicago Bears.

Check out my top NFL divisional round TD picks, featuring a play on Seattle Seahawks tight end AJ Barner.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to bet on the NFL playoffs!

NFL divisional round TD picks

Best bet: Cook to score (-117)

Cook didn’t get much recognition as an Offensive Player of the Year candidate — but he should have:

  • 3rd in carries (309)
  • 1st in rush yards (1,621)
  • 5th in touchdowns (14)

The fourth-year back is a legitimate bell cow, and his 5.2 YPC was second among those qualified by ESPN (min. 6.25 attempts/game).

That rare blend of usage and efficiency makes Cook a TD threat on a weekly basis.

Jacksonville bottled up Cook in the wild-card round, but the Jags hadn’t allowed a 75-yard rusher all season, so I’ll cut the RB some slack.

-> Go to full Bills vs. Broncos prop markets

Denver also owns an elite defence, but it wasn’t top-tier during the season’s home stretch. Following its Week 12 bye, the Broncos ranked 12th in EPA per play and gave up 21.5 PPG.

Cook also ran for 120 yards and a touchdown against Denver in the playoffs last year.

Key stat: Cook has 10 TDs in nine road games this year.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on NFL wild-card weekend!

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NFL touchdown scorer bets

Adams to score (-117): Adams is one of the league’s top red zone threats. He led all WRs and TEs in these categories within the 10-yard line:

  • Targets (23)
  • Receptions (11)
  • Touchdowns (11)

The veteran didn’t score in Los Angeles’ wild-card match against the Carolina Panthers, but he did log 72 yards while catching five of 13 targets.

That puts any worry about his lingering hamstring injury to bed.

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Now, on to L.A.’s matchup.

Chicago’s red zone defence has been brutal lately. The Bears have allowed touchdowns on 75% of their opponents’ trips inside the 20-yard line over the last three games.

Last week, Jordan Love threw for four touchdowns in a hard-fought loss. And in the regular season, the Bears allowed the third-most touchdowns to opposing wideouts (20).

Adams should get his at Soldier Field.

NFL anytime TD prediction

Barner to score (+180): Barner is a star in the making.

The sophomore tight end does everything well and is practically always on the field. He played in 78% of Seattle’s offensive snaps this year, with no other tight end on the team cresting 30%.

Barner’s 14.9% target share ranks in the 81st percentile among tight ends, according to Rotowire.

-> See full NFL playoff prop markets

He scored seven TDs during the regular season and has a solid matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

San Francisco’s linebackers (the position group that typically covers tight ends) have allowed an 83.1 passer rating to opposing QBs, which ranks in the 29th percentile.

I expect the Niners to be overly-focused on stopping Jaxon Smith-Njigba, which should hopefully create some space for Barner to do damage.

NFL divisional round TD picks made at 1:15 p.m. ET on Jan. 14, 2026.

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Raptors vs. Pacers picks Jan. 14: Prop predictions on Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram

Raptors vs. Pacers picks

The Indiana Pacers host the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday with a win streak on the line.

The pregame narrative: Indiana’s NBA Finals hangover has hit like a Mack Truck, but the Eastern Conference basement-dwellers have won their last three games while playing solid defence. The Raptors are 2-0 against the Pacers this year, and are 2.5-point road favourites tonight.

Check out my Raptors vs. Pacers picks for Jan. 14, featuring Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram.

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Raptors vs. Pacers picks

Best bet: Barnes over 8.5 rebounds (-143)

Barnes is averaging 8.3 boards per game and has an outsized opportunity with Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett sidelined.

-> Bet on Scottie Barnes tonight!

Who’s going to clean the glass for Indiana?

I’m certainly not worried about “Jay Huff,” the 7-foot-1 starting centre who is averaging more 3-point attempts (4.0) than rebounds (2.7) in January.

Pascal Siakam holds the highest rebounding total of any Pacer at 6.5, but Barnes is just as big and seven years younger.

Look for the Raptors’ top dog to be active tonight.

Key stat: Barnes is 5-1 against this line in his six games against the Pacers, averaging 10.5 rebounds per game.

Raptors prop predictions

Ingram under 1.5 threes (+137): Ingram is on a dry spell from 3-point land, going 0-for-4 in his last two contests.

He only played 11 minutes before exiting with an injury against the Charlotte Hornets on Jan. 7, but he has still gone under 1.5 threes in six of his last eight games (with a 25.6 3PT%).

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This isn’t a great matchup for Ingram to find his beyond-the-arc scoring touch.

The Pacers have the second-best 3-point defence in the NBA (34.4%) and the third-worst mid-range defence (48.6%), per Cleaning the Glass.

Ingram isn’t a big 3-point shooter to begin with, taking 74% of his shots inside the arc, and he’s better off going inside to do damage.

Case in point: He scored 45 points across two games vs. the Pacers this year despite shooting 1-for-6 from deep. Expect a similar game plan on Wednesday.

Raptors vs. Celtics picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on Jan. 14, 2026.

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Knicks vs. Kings SGP predictions Jan. 14: Bet on Russell Westbrook and Karl-Anthony Towns at +320

Knicks vs. Kings SGP

Wednesday’s late-night NBA slate features a matchup between the New York Knicks and Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: New York has lost four of six games since the calendar turned. Sacramento has won back-to-back games as a home underdog. Still, it’s the Knicks who are laying 10.5 points on the road this evening.

Check out my Knicks vs. Kings SGP predictions for Jan. 14, featuring Karl-Anthony Towns and Russell Westbrook.

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Knicks vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Knicks -9.5 | Town 10+ rebounds | Westbrook 2+ threes (+320)

Knicks -9.5 (-143): Sacramento’s last two games:

  • Dec. 12: 12-point win over the Los Angeles Lakers as +9.5 underdogs
  • Dec. 11: 13-point win over the Houston Rockets as +14.5 underdogs

Backing New York might seem scary after those outings, but I can’t ignore Sacramento’s larger body of work. The Kings are 10-30 with six double-digit losses in their last nine games.

On top of that, they rank 29th in offensive rating and net rating this season, per NBA.com.

-> Build your Knicks vs. Kings SGP at NorthStar Bets

The Knicks are a much more talented roster with no injuries on their ledger, and they just picked up a nine-point win over the Trail Blazers in Portland on Sunday.

Domantas Sabonis and Keegan Murray remain sidelined for the home side, and I don’t see a third-straight underdog story playing out.

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NBA SGP legs

Towns 10+ rebounds (-420): Losing Sabonis, who led the NBA in rebounding over the last three seasons, has been tough on Sacrameneto.

  • The Kings are 28th in rebounding rate since Sabonis went down with an injury on Dec. 16.
  • Over the last 30 days, they are giving up the second-most rebounds per game to oppsing centres (16.0), per Fantasy Pros.

Towns is averaging the second-most rebounds per game (11.4). He has reached this milestone in eight of his last 10 games and 28 of 36 games on the season.

-> Back Knicks’ superstar Karl-Anthony Towns vs. Kings

I like KAT to reach 12 rebounds at -121 as a standalone play, but I’ll tease that mark down for this SGP.

Westbrook 2+ threes (-132): Finaly, I want to back Westbrook from 3-point land. That statement would be scoffed at just a few years ago.

The veteran guard is averaging 1.9 threes on 5.6 attempts per game (34.5%). That’s the most makes since the 2016-17 season, when he won MVP.

Westbrook is coming off a two-game tear, where he went 2-0 against this line and shot 7-of-14 from beyond the arc.

He should stay hot against a Knicks team with the sixth-worst 3-point defence (37.2%) in the NBA.

Knicks vs. Kings SGP made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Jan. 14, 2026.

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Raptors vs. Pacers picks Jan. 14: Prop predictions on Scottie Barnes, Brandon Ingram

Raptors vs. Pacers picks

The Indiana Pacers host the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday with a win streak on the line.

The pregame narrative: Indiana’s NBA Finals hangover has hit like a Mack Truck, but the Eastern Conference basement-dwellers have won their last three games while playing solid defence. The Raptors are 2-0 against the Pacers this year, and are 2.5-point road favourites tonight.

Check out my Raptors vs. Pacers picks for Jan. 14, featuring Scottie Barnes and Brandon Ingram.

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Raptors vs. Pacers picks

Best bet: Barnes to record a double-double (+114)

This is mainly a play on Barnes to record 10 points and 10 rebounds, but the good thing is that he’s also capable of reaching double-digit assists.

-> Bet on Scottie Barnes tonight!

The forward has three 10-assist games in his last eight contests, and two triple-doubles.

But back to the rebounding. Barnes is averaging 8.3 boards per game and has an outsized opportunity with Jakob Poeltl and RJ Barrett sidelined.

Who’s going to clean the glass for Indiana?

I’m certainly not worried about “Jay Huff,” the 7-foot-1 starting centre who is averaging more 3-point attempts (4.0) than rebounds (2.7) in January.

Pascal Siakam holds the highest rebounding total of any Pacer at 6.5, but Barnes is just as big and seven years younger.

Look for the Raptors’ top dog to be active tonight.

Key stat: Barnes has five double-doubles in his last six games against the Pacers, falling one assist shy in the outlier.

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Raptors prop predictions

Ingram under 1.5 threes (+112): Ingram is on a dry spell from 3-point land, going 0-for-4 in his last two contests.

He only played 11 minutes before exiting with an injury against the Charlotte Hornets on Jan. 7, but he has still gone under 1.5 threes in six of his last eight games (with a 25.6 3PT%).

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This isn’t a great matchup for Ingram to find his beyond-the-arc scoring touch.

The Pacers have the second-best 3-point defence in the NBA (34.4%) and the third-worst mid-range defence (48.6%), per Cleaning the Glass.

Ingram isn’t a big 3-point shooter to begin with, taking 74% of his shots inside the arc, and he’s better off going inside to do damage.

Case in point: He scored 45 points across two games vs. the Pacers this year despite shooting 1-for-6 from deep. Expect a similar game plan on Wednesday.

Raptors vs. Celtics picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on Jan. 14, 2026.

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Trail Blazers vs. Warriors SGP predictions Jan. 13: Bet on Curry and Clingan in +330 wager

Trail Blazers vs. Warriors SGP

The Golden State Warriors are massive home favourites against the Portland Trail Blazers on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: Portland has won seven of its last nine games but is without Deni Avdija (back), with Jerami Grant (achillies) listed as doubtful. Golden State is 13-6 at home and is laying 10.5 points as Steph Curry looks to stay red-hot in 2026.

Check out my Trail Blazers vs. Warriors SGP picks for Jan. 13, featuring Curry and Donovan Clingan.

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Trail Blazers vs. Warriors SGP

Parlay: Warriors -7.5 | Curry 4+ threes | Clingan over 12.5 rebounds (+330)

Warriors -7.5 (-190): If everyone were healthy, this would probably be close to a pick’em. The Trail Blazers are 3-0 against the Warriors this year, averaging 134.0 PPG in those contests.

But Portland is banged up. Avdija (26.1) and Grant (20.0) rank first and third in points per game, with the former in pole position to win the Most Improved Player award.

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Avdija has played all 40 games leading up to this point, but he missed 10 last season. Portland went 3-7 in those contests, including a 16-point loss at Golden State.

The Warriors have the ninth-best home offensive rating in basketball, and I expect them to fill the basket tonight. Will the Blazers keep up? I doubt it.

Golden State held its own offensively in its matchups against Portland this year, averaging 124.3 PPG.

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NBA SGP legs

Curry 25+ points (-400): Curry has been on fire since returning from injury on Dec. 12 (14 games):

  • 29.9 PPG
  • 46.9 FG%
  • 39.1 3PT%

In that span, he is 12-2 against this line with six 30-point performances.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on Curry against the Trail Blazers now!

The veteran guard is still cashing in 3s at a sky-high clip and is also getting to the line around six times per game (and shooting 92.9% from the charity stripe).

Portland gives up the sixth-most points per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros. This teased-down total should be well within reach.

Clingan over 12.5 rebounds (-115): I wouldn’t be surprised if Clingan finished this game with 15-plus rebounds.

The 7-foot-2, 280-pound sophomore has already done that six times this year, and three of those outings came in his last six games.

Now, he gets to go up against an undersized Golden State team, allowing the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres.

Since Dec. 1, Clingan is averaging the fourth most rebounds (11.5) and the most rebound chances (21.8) in the NBA.

Trail Blazers vs. Warriors SGP predictions made at 1 p.m. on Jan. 13, 2026.

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Best NBA prop picks Jan. 13: Back Giannis, Wembanyama and Alexander-Walker on Tuesday

NBA prop bets Jan. 13

Canadian guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker headlines Tuesday’s NBA prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Walker has been on a roll lately and has a plus matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers. Elsewhere, look for Giannis Antetokounmpo to rack up rebounds against the shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 13, featuring a pick on Victor Wembanyama.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 13

Best bet: Alexander-Walker over 21.5 points (-106)

Alexander-Walker is having a career year and has sneaky value to claim Most Improved Player honours at +3,000.

  • 2024-25 (82 games, 10 starts): 9.4 PPG, 43.8 FG%, 38.1 3PT%
  • 2025-26 (39 games, 32 starts): 20.6 PPG, 44.5 FG%, 37.2 3PT%

The Canadian is capitalizing on his starting opportunities with the Atlanta Hawks after riding the bench for three years in Minnesota. I think he has a chance to level up again following Trae Young’s departure.

-> Full betting markets for Tuesday’s NBA slate

Alexander-Walker is averaging 21.5 PPG since Dec. 27 (Young’s last game with the Hawks) while taking 18.3 field goals and 9.8 threes per game.

That type of volume puts him in a great position to clear this number on a nightly basis.

Los Angeles has lost three straight and is playing on a back-to-back after yesterday’s contest against the Sacramento Kings.

The Lakers have the fourth-worst 3-point defence in the NBA (37.4%). That’s an area Alexander-Walker should exploit, given his shot volume from outside.

Backing the guard to go over 2.5 threes carries unplayable -157 juice, so I’ll instead opt for him to clear a modest point total.

Key stat: Alexander-Walker has cleared this mark in seven of his last eight road games.

Best NBA picks

Antetokounmpo over 10.5 rebounds (-118): Anthony Edwards (foot) and Rudy Gobert (suspension) are out for Minnesota tonight, leaving Giannis with a mouth-watering matchup.

Gobert ranks third in rebounds per game (11.4) and is a physically imposing presence at 7-foot-1, 258 pounds. Without him, Minnesota doesn’t have a single player above 6-foot-9 in its rotation.

-> Bet on Giannis in tonight’s Timberwolves vs. Bucks matchup!

Giannis is having his worst rebounding year in a while, logging 9.8 boards per game. That’s around two fewer than his 11.9 mark last season.

But the Greek Freak can still put up huge rebounding totals from time to time and has succeeded in this matchup recently (with Gobert often playing).

He has cleared this total in five of his last six games vs. the T-wolves while averaging 13.2 rebounds per game.

NBA player prop predictions

Wembanyama 2+ threes (-130): The Oklahoma City Thunder have lost seven games this year, and three were to the San Antonio Spurs.

Wembanyama was on a minutes restriction in each of those contests and shot a combined 4-for-5 from deep. We’re going to need more 3-point volume tonight to clear this line, which I think is doable.

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He is averaging 5.5 three-point attempts in January, up from 3.0 in December.

OKC, surprisingly, has an awful 3-point defence. It is allowing the third-most 3s per game (14.6) at the third-highest clip (37.5%).

NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 12, 2026.

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Best NBA prop picks Jan. 13: Back Giannis, Wembanyama and Alexander-Walker on Tuesday

NBA prop bets Jan. 13

Canadian guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker headlines Tuesday’s NBA prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Walker has been on a roll lately and has a plus matchup against the Los Angeles Lakers. Elsewhere, look for Giannis Antetokounmpo to rack up rebounds against the shorthanded Minnesota Timberwolves.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 13, featuring a pick on Victor Wembanyama.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 13

Best bet: Alexander-Walker over 20.5 points (-117)

Alexander-Walker is having a career year and has sneaky value to claim Most Improved Player honours at +3,000.

  • 2024-25 (82 games, 10 starts): 9.4 PPG, 43.8 FG%, 38.1 3PT%
  • 2025-26 (39 games, 32 starts): 20.6 PPG, 44.5 FG%, 37.2 3PT%

The Canadian is capitalizing on his starting opportunities with the Atlanta Hawks after riding the bench for three years in Minnesota. I think he has a chance to level up again following Trae Young’s departure.

-> Full betting markets for Tuesday’s NBA slate

Alexander-Walker is averaging 21.5 PPG since Dec. 27 (Young’s last game with the Hawks) while taking 18.3 field goals and 9.8 threes per game.

That type of volume puts him in a great position to clear this number on a nightly basis.

Los Angeles has lost three straight and is playing on a back-to-back after yesterday’s contest against the Sacramento Kings.

The Lakers have the fourth-worst 3-point defence in the NBA (37.4%). That’s an area Alexander-Walker should exploit, given his shot volume from outside.

Backing the guard to go over 2.5 threes carries unplayable -157 juice, so I’ll instead opt for him to clear a modest point total.

Key stat: Alexander-Walker has cleared this mark in seven of his last eight road games.

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Best NBA picks

Antetokounmpo over 10.5 rebounds (-124): Anthony Edwards (foot) and Rudy Gobert (suspension) are out for Minnesota tonight, leaving Giannis with a mouth-watering matchup.

Gobert ranks third in rebounds per game (11.4) and is a physically imposing presence at 7-foot-1, 258 pounds. Without him, Minnesota doesn’t have a single player above 6-foot-9 in its rotation.

-> Bet on Giannis in tonight’s Timberwolves vs. Bucks matchup!

Giannis is having his worst rebounding year in a while, logging 9.8 boards per game. That’s around two fewer than his 11.9 mark last season.

But the Greek Freak can still put up huge rebounding totals from time to time and has succeeded in this matchup recently (with Gobert often playing).

He has cleared this total in five of his last six games vs. the T-wolves while averaging 13.2 rebounds per game.

NBA player prop predictions

Wembanyama 2+ threes (-110): The Oklahoma City Thunder have lost seven games this year, and three were to the San Antonio Spurs.

Wembanyama was on a minutes restriction in each of those contests, and shot a combined 4-for-5 from deep. We’re going to need more 3-point volume tonight to clear this line, which I think is doable.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on tonight’s NBA prop markets!

He is averaging 5.5 three-point attempts in January, up from 3.0 in December.

OKC, surprisingly, has an awful 3-point defence. It is allowing the third-most 3s per game (14.6) at the third-highest clip (37.5%).

NBA prop picks made at 9:45 a.m. ET on Jan. 12, 2026.

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Hornets vs. Jazz SGP predictions Jan. 10: Back Brandon Miller and Kon Knueppel on Saturday

Hornets vs. Jazz SGP

The Charlotte Hornets visit the shorthanded Utah Jazz to close out Saturday’s NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Utah’s leading scorer, Lauri Markkanen, is out tonight with a scheduled rest day. On the other side, Charlotte gets back rookie centre Ryan Kalkbrenner, who has missed the last 10 games with an elbow injury. The Hornets are 4.5-point favourites as of noon E.T.

Check out my Hornets vs. Jazz SGP predictions for Jan. 10, featuring Kon Knueppel and Brandon Miller.

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Hornets vs. Jazz predictions

Parlay: Hornets moneyline | Knueppel 4+ threes | Miller 4+ rebounds (+310)

Hornets moneyline (-180): I think there is serious blowout potential tonight.

Charlotte is turning a corner, with an exciting young core and a competent head coach. The Hornets are 4-6 in their 10 games, but those losses came by an average of 4.6 points.

They are playing teams tough night in and night out, and the same can’t be said about Utah.

-> Build your Hornets vs. Jazz SGP at NorthStar Bets

The Jazz are 1-5 in their last six games, losing three of those contests by double digits.

Without Markkanen and Ace Bailey (hip), I can’t see Utah scoring enough points to keep this one close. Jusuf Nurkic (toe) is also questionable, and his absence would lead to a massive size mismatch in the paint for Kalkbrenner.

The Hornets beat the Jazz by 23 points in Charlotte earlier this year with Nurkic, Bailey and Markkanen playing.

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NBA SGP legs

Knueppel 4+ threes (-103): Cooper Flagg has pulled ahead in the Rookie of the Year race, but Knueppel is still within shouting distance of his Duke Blue Devils teammate.

The sharpshooting guard has been lights out from beyond the arc this year:

  • The rookie is averaging 3.6 threes on 8.4 attempts a night.
  • That 42.7% three-point rate is the third-highest of any player taking 7.0+ threes per game.

-> Back Rookie of the Year candidate Kon Knueppel on Saturday

Knueppel has gone under this mark in four of his last five, but that doesn’t worry me. He still shot 39.5% from deep in that span, and hit four-plus 3s in six straight games before that.

Utah has the fourth-worst 3-point defence in the NBA (37.2%).

Miller 4+ rebounds (-245): Finally, I want to back Miller on the glass.

The third-year forward is averaging 4.2 rebounds per game and has reached this milestone in four straight games.

Utah is lacking size across the board and has struggled to hold opposing rebounders in check lately. It ranks 19th in rebounding rate over the last 10 games.

The Jazz will be even worse off if Nurkic, who averages 9.8 rebounds, misses a second straight game.

Miller isn’t a giant by NBA standards, but is big enough at 6-foot-7 to capitalize on a mismatch.

Hornets vs. Jazz SGP made at 3:45 p.m. ET on Jan. 10, 2026.

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Texans vs. Steelers wild-card SGP predictions: Bet on Watt and Rodgers to help Pittsburgh advance

Texans vs. Steelers picks

The NFL wild-card round concludes in Pittsburgh on Monday Night Football, with the Steelers looking for their first playoff win in a decade.

The pregame narrative: Aaron Rodgers led the Steelers to a 4-1 record down the stretch to keep the season (and potentially his career) alive. Now, Pittsburgh is a slight home underdog against a Houston Texans team that has won 10 straight games heading into the postseason.

Check out my Texans vs. Steelers picks, featuring predictions on Rodgers and T.J. Watt.

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Texans vs. Steelers picks

SGP: Steelers moneyline | Rodgers 175+ passing yards | Watt to record a sack (+425)

Steelers moneyline (+140): Backing Houston might seem like a no-brainer. The Texans own the league’s top scoring defence and haven’t lost since Nov. 2.

But I love Pittsburgh as a home underdog.

The Steelers’ defence is humming right now, holding opponents to 19.6 PPG in their last five. In that span, they beat the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens (twice).

-> Bet on NFL wild-card weekend!

That unit should wreak havoc against C.J. Stroud, who has very suspect road splits:

  • The Texans went 1-3 against playoff teams on the road this year. Stroud had four TDs and six INTs in those games.
  • Stroud’s career road splits (214 passing yards/game, 85.5 passer rating) are much worse than his home splits (258.9 passing yards/game, 101.2 passer rating).

I fully trust Rodgers to out-duel his counterpart with DK Metcalf back in the fold.

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Texans vs. Steelers prop prediction

Rodgers 175+ passing yards (-230): Only two players, Cam Heyward and Chris Bowell, remain from Pittsburgh’s 2016 roster when it toppled the Kansas City Chiefs to reach the AFC Championship game.

This squad isn’t flush with playoff-winning pedigree, save for Rodgers, who secured a Super Bowl title with the Green Bay Packers in 2011, coincidentally, against the Steelers.

I say the veteran does his part to get Pittsburgh into the divisional round.

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Rodgers went 11-5 against this milestone, throwing for at least 224 yards in all four of Pittsburgh’s wins down the stretch. He went under it against the Cleveland Browns, but was missing Metcalf.

Houston’s defence is fierce, and the Steelers will need to implement a balanced attack to move the ball.

Veterans like Marquez-Valdez Scantling and Adam Theilin have gotten reps down the stretch, and it feels like Pittsburgh’s offence is peaking at the right time.

SGP prediction: T.J. Watt pick

Watt to record a sack (+106): Watt didn’t record a sack in the final three games of the season, and had just seven on the year.

The 31-year-old is no longer a mainstay in Defensive Player of the Year conversations, but he’s no pushover and should feast in this matchup.

After all, Houston’s offensive line is its achillies heel.

  • According to ESPN, the Texans are 30th in pass-block win rate (56%) and 32nd in run-block win rate (68%).
  • PFF had the offensive line ranked as the No. 27 unit following Week 18.

-> Bet on Watt to record a sack on MNF

Texans vs. Steelers picks made at 11:30 a.m. on Jan. 10, 2025.

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