Staff Writer

Best MLB prop bets June 29: Back Gunnar Henderson and Ketel Marte on Sunday

Gunnar Henderson and Ketel Marte headline Sunday’s MLB prop bets.

Today’s MLB props narrative: The Baltimore Orioles and Tampa Bay Rays’ weekend series has been loaded with offence, and I expect Henderson to keep that trend going in a favourable matchup. After that, look for Marte to do damage against a struggling righty.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for June 28, featuring a fade on J.T. Realmuto.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Marte over 1.5 total bases (-115)

Marte is hitting for average and power, and gets a struggling pitcher in a hitter-friendly ballpark. What’s not to like?

The Arizona Diamondbacks second baseman is slashing .344/.426/.656 this month with nine extra-base hits in his last 10 games.

He hit his 16th home run of the season yesterday, bringing his season-long OPS to 1.000. That would rank fourth in all of MLB had he played enough innings to qualify.

Ketel Marte three-run home run! pic.twitter.com/u6aTiUkuos
— Talkin’ Baseball (@TalkinBaseball_) June 28, 2025

Today, he goes up against Cal Quantrill, who has been a gas can for the Miami Marlins.

The righty owns a 5.56 ERA and has given up a home run in five of his last six starts. Quantrill’s 5.63 xERA and .295 xBA both rank in the fifth percentile, indicating those results have been deserved.

Marte is 3-for-11 against Quantrill with a .362 xBA and .706 xSLG.

Key stat: The switch-hitting Marte is slugging .648 against RHP this season.

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Best MLB picks

Henderson over 1.5 total bases (-113): Henderson checks every box I typically look for when backing a player on their bases prop.

Recent form: The shortstop is slashing .323/.420/.453 this month.

Favourable splits: Henderson is slugging .532 against righties (.263 vs. LHP) and .493 at home (.383 on the road).

Head-to-head matchup: Taj Bradley starts for the Rays today. Henderson is 6-for-14 against the righty with a double and a home run.

Bradley has gotten roughed up a few times this month. He gave up seven ER in 4.1 IP against the Miami Marlins on June 7 and six ER in 1.1 IP against the Orioles on June 18.

Henderson shot a double into left against Bradley in that start and added another single later in the game.

Realmuto under 0.5 hits (+143): I want a piece of Spencer Strider today, but believe his 7.5 strikeout total is a tad too high against a disciplined Philadelphia Phillies squad.

The fireballing righty is in great form right now, racking up 29 strikeouts over his last three starts. That’s raised his season-long K rate to 30.5%, which is in the 90th percentile.

Strider also issues plenty of walks, which makes Realmuto a prime fade candidate in the hits department.

Philadelphia’s catcher is hitless in four of his last five games.

Realmuto is 3-for-24 lifetime against Stirder with a 48.1% K rate.

I don’t expect Realmuto to make any solid contact, and believe his best chance of reaching the basepaths is via a walk.

Atlanta’s bullpen also owns the 10th-best ERA (3.65) in MLB. It’s not like Realmuto will be on easy street once Strider exits the game.

MLB prop picks made at 9:01 a.m. ET on 06/29/2025.

PSG vs. Inter Miami SGP predictions June 29: Bet on Paris to win in FIFA Club World Cup Round of 16

PSG meets up with Inter Miami in the FIFA Club World Cup Round of 16 on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: The Parisians are fresh off a Champions League title and are massive favourites to advance past a far inferior MLS side. Lionel Messi has been instrumental in getting the Herons to this point, but will need to turn back the clock to eliminate his old team.

Check out my PSG vs. Inter Miami SGP predictions for June 29, featuring Messi and Ousmane Dembele.

PSG vs. Inter Miami predictions

Parlay: PSG halftime/fulltime | Dembele to score | Messi under 2.5 shots (+340)

PSG halftime/fulltime (-175): I’m expecting a one-sided affair at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on Sunday.

PSG earned the title of European champions after knocking out several top-end teams en route to their blowout win in the UCL final:

Round of 16: Beat Liverpool (EPL champions)
Semifinal: Beat Arsenal (EPL runners-up)
Final: Beat Inter Milan (Serie A runners-up)

The Parisians’ title win came in a 5-0 thrashing, and PSG picked up where it left off in the FIFA Club World Cup with a 4-0 win over Atletico Madrid.

Luis Enrique’s side took a shocking loss in the following game, but that was without several starters, including Ballon d’Or contender Ousmane Dembele, in the lineup.

Inter Miami is a good team by MLS standards, but expecting it to compete against a well-oiled machine like PSG is taking things too far.

Messi is only one man, and he just turned 38 years old. I’ll side with the younger, more talented squad all day.

Go to full PSG vs. Inter Miami betting markets

Other SGP legs

Dembele to score (-122): Dembele has built a very strong case to win the Ballon d’Or.

He led PSG with 21 goals in Ligue 1 and added another eight in their Champions League campaign — and that’s not even to mention everything else he does as a playmaker and defender.

The Frenchman sat out the first three games for PSG, which means he should be fresh for this elimination stage game.

Dembele has averaged 0.87 non-penalty xG per 90 over the last 365 days. That ranks in the 98th percentile compared to positional peers in Men’s Big 5 Leagues, UCL, and UEL, per FBRef.

Messi under 2.5 shots (-120): Fading Messi is no fun, but I expect PSG to dominate possession in this fixture and keep Inter Miami backed into its own final third.

Enrique’s side employs relentless pressing tactics that force opponents to make passes and, ultimately, mistakes.

The Parisians held 73% possession against the Seattle Sounders — another MLS side — in their last game. That marked the fourth time in the last five games PSG held over 70% possession, with the outlier being against Inter Milan in the UCL Final. But even then, PSG had 60%.

If Miami can’t get the ball, Messi won’t be able to work his magic.

The Argentinian has also gone under this mark in back-to-back games against far worse teams than PSG.

PSG vs. Inter Miami predictions made at 3:30 p.m. on 06/27/2025.

MLB home run picks June 27: Back James Wood and Jackson Chourio to go yard on Friday

Every MLB team is in action on Friday, and I’ve picked two players to go deep during the loaded slate.

Today’s MLB HR narrative: James Wood has been a bright spot on a terrible Washington Nationals squad, and has a plus matchup against the hard-throwing Jose Soriano at Angels Stadium. I also expect Jackson Chourio to take advantage of the thin air at Coors Field.

Check out the best MLB home run picks for June 27.

MLB home run picks

Best bet: Wood to hit a home run (+450)

Wood is sixth in MLB in home runs (22), destroys right-handed pitching, and goes up against a guy who gives up plenty of hard contact — yeah, that’ll play.

The 22-year-old is hitless in his last two outings but was on a five-game heater before that, batting .318 with four home runs.

Wood’s numbers against righties are incredible (.280/.392/.575 slash line, 15 HR), and Soriano’s advanced metrics suggest this is a perfect matchup:

35th percentile xBA (.259)
13th percentile hard-hit rate (46.5%)
12th percentile average exit velocity (91.2).

Soriano’s main pitch is an upper-90s sinker, which he throws 51% of the time. And that is an offering Wood has seen well this season (stats vs. sinkers above 95 mph):

.338 xBA
.545 xSLG
45.5% hard-hit rate

Swish Analytics also projects the wind to blow out the left field at Angel Stadium at just under 8 mph tonight, which is a nice boost.

Key stat: Wood has a 98th percentile xSLG this season (.593).

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Best HR predictions

Chourio to hit a home run (+500): Coors Field is a notorious hitter-friendly park, and the wind is blowing out to left-centre at over 10 mph on Friday.

With that said, I’m loving Chourio’s +500 odds against an awful pitcher.

Kyle Freeland is projected to return tonight for the Colorado Rockies, and opponents have hit .387 against him at home. His 7.11 ERA at Coors Field is pretty poor, too.

The southpaw is also giving up a .494 SLG against righties, while Chourio is slugging an eye-popping .593 against lefties.

Chourio hit 21 home runs last year in a campaign which earned him third place on the NL ROTY ballot.

He also rarely takes walks, which means the ball should be put in play often and with authority.

MLB home run picks made at 1:08 p.m. ET on 06/27/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prop pick June 27: Back Jose Berrios on Friday at Fenway Park

The Toronto Blue Jays open up a three-game set at Fenway Park on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Jose Berrios starts for the Blue Jays against a sputtering Boston Red Sox squad, which has lost five in a row. Boston counters with Brayan Bello, who has struggled to keep Toronto’s bats at bay in the past.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for June 27, featuring Berrios.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best Bet: Berrios over 17.5 outs (-143)

Berrios (3.51 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) has been pretty reliable for the Blue Jays all season, and he’s really hit his stride over his last five starts.

2.03 ERA
.194 OBA
6.0+ IP four times
31% hard-hit rate

The righty’s biggest problem last year was giving up hard contact — he had a 24th percentile hard-hit rate (41.8%) in 2024 — but he’s tightened that up. For context, a 31% hard-hit rate, what Berrios has allowed since May 29, would be the 18th best mark in MLB.

And Boston doesn’t profile as the type of team that will light him up.

The Red Sox have the fifth-worst slugging percentage (.328) and worst wRC+ (56) since trading away Rafael Devers on June 15th.

Berrios has had plenty of success against this lineup before, holding Boston to a .226 batting average with a 28.1% K rate over 96 plate appearances.

He has played Boston twice this year, throwing 7.0 innings of one-run ball on April 8th and 6.2 innings of two-run ball on May 1st.

Key stat: Berrios is 6-1 against this line in his last seven starts.

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Blue Jays pick made at 10:13 a.m. ET on 06/25/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prop picks June 27: Back Jose Berrios, Addison Barger on Friday

The Toronto Blue Jays open up a three-game set at Fenway Park on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Jose Berrios starts for the Blue Jays against a sputtering Boston Red Sox squad, which has lost five in a row. Boston counters with Brayan Bello, who has struggled to keep Toronto’s bats at bay in the past.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Red Sox for June 27, featuring Berrios and Addison Barger.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best Bet: Berrios over 17.5 outs (-137)

Berrios (3.51 ERA, 1.24 WHIP) has been pretty reliable for the Blue Jays all season, and he’s really hit his stride over his last five starts.

2.03 ERA
.194 OBA
6.0+ IP four times
31% hard-hit rate

The righty’s biggest problem last year was giving up hard contact — he had a 24th percentile hard-hit rate (41.8%) in 2024 — but he’s tightened that up. For context, a 31% hard-hit rate, what Berrios has allowed since May 29, would be the 18th best mark in MLB.

And Boston doesn’t profile as the type of team that will light him up.

The Red Sox have the fifth-worst slugging percentage (.328) and worst wRC+ (56) since trading away Rafael Devers on June 15th.

Berrios has had plenty of success against this lineup before, holding Boston to a .226 batting average with a 28.1% K rate over 96 plate appearances.

He has played Boston twice this year, throwing 7.0 innings of one-run ball on April 8th and 6.2 innings of two-run ball on May 1st.

Key stat: Berrios is 6-1 against this line in his last seven starts.

Embed: #115280

Quick pick

Barger over 1.5 bases (+128): Barger has cooled off after a torrid start to the month, with just two singles in his last five games.

That said, I think he should get after Bello on Friday.

Boston’s righty has a 19th percentile xERA (4.69) and a 17th percentile xBA (.273). He’s also gotten hit harder by left-hitting batters, allowing a .275/.383/.413 slash line.

Barger’s slugging percentage against righties (.500) is notably higher than his slugging percentage against lefties (.355).

He is 4-for-8 against Bello with two doubles.

Blue Jays picks made at 10:13 a.m. ET on 06/25/2025.

MLB odds, schedule and matchups June 27: Betting notes and lines for Friday’s 15-game slate

Every MLB team is in action on Friday as a fresh batch of series begins throughout the league.

Today’s MLB narrative: Two teams leading their respective divisions, the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros, meet for a three-game set at Daikin Park. Game 1 is a pick’em, and so too is a pitchers’ duel between the Houston Texans and Seattle Mariners with Nathan Eovaldi and Logan Gilbert on the mound.

Check out the latest MLB odds for June 27 below.

MLB odds and betting insights

Houston (48-33) has been hitting the cover off the ball lately, ranking inside the top 10 for batting average, slugging percentage and wRC+ over the last 14 days. Chicago (48-33) starts rookie Cade Horton, who sports a 3.73 ERA through eight starts. The Astros are 30-13 at home this season.

Eovaldi is returning from a month-long absence and was lights out beforehand. His 1.56 ERA and 0.81 WHIP across 12 starts would lead the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. Gilbert is making his third start since returning from injury and sports a 3.12 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. This game’s 7.5 run total is the lowest of the night.

The Blue Jays (43-37) are an MLB-best 47-33 on the run line, and are locked in a pick’em against the struggling Red Sox (40-42), who have lost five straight. Brayan Bello is pitching for Boston, and Toronto has a combined .319 batting average against him in 102 plate appearances.

Kansas City (38-43) is an underdog at home in its series opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers (51-31). L.A. is fresh off a sweep of Colorado and is averaging 6.3 runs in its last 10 games. Rookie Noah Cameron is tasked with slowing down that lineup and owns a stellar 2.03 ERA.

Today’s MLB schedule

New York Mets (-150) vs. Pittsburgh Pirates (+125)
Time: 6:40 p.m.

Athletics (+200) vs. New York Yankees (-250)
Time: 7:05 p.m.

Tampa Bay Rays (-134) vs. Baltimore Orioles (+110)
Time: 7:05 p.m.

St. Louis Cardinals (-120) vs. Cleveland Guardians (+100)
Time: 7:10 p.m.

Minnesota Twins (+100) vs. Detroit Tigers (-120)
Time: 7:10 p.m.

Toronto Blue Jays (+100) vs. Boston Red Sox (-120)
Time: 7:10 p.m.

San Diego Padres (-134) vs. Cincinnati Reds (+100)
Time: 7:10 p.m.

Philadelphia Phillies (+135) vs. Atlanta Braves (-163)
Time: 7:15 p.m.

San Francisco Giants (-163) vs. Chicago White Sox (+135)
Time: 7:40 p.m.

Seattle Mariners (-112) vs. Texas Rangers (-106)
Time: 8:05 p.m.

Chicago Cubs (-110) vs. Houston Astros (-110)
Time: 8:10 p.m.

Los Angeles Dodgers (-154) vs. Kansas City Royals (+130)
Time: 8:10 p.m.

Colorado Rockies (+170) vs. Milwaukee Brewers (-209)
Time: 8:10 p.m.

Washington Nationals (+137) vs. Los Angeles Angels (-167)
Time: 8:10 p.m.

Miami Marlins (+150) vs. Arizona Diamondbacks (-182)
Time: 9:40 p.m.

MLB odds, schedule and matchups June 27: Betting notes and lines for Friday’s 15-game slate

Every MLB team is in action on Friday as a fresh batch of series begins throughout the league.

Today’s MLB narrative: Two teams leading their respective divisions, the Chicago Cubs and Houston Astros, meet for a three-game set at Daikin Park. Game 1 is a pick’em, and so too is a pitchers’ duel between the Houston Texans and Seattle Mariners with Nathan Eovaldi and Logan Gilbert on the mound.

Check out the latest MLB odds for June 27 below.

MLB odds and betting insights

Houston (48-33) has been hitting the cover off the ball lately, ranking inside the top 10 for batting average, slugging percentage and wRC+ over the last 14 days. Chicago (48-33) starts rookie Cade Horton, who sports a 3.73 ERA through eight starts. The Astros are 30-13 at home this season.

Eovaldi is returning from a month-long absence and was lights out beforehand. His 1.56 ERA and 0.81 WHIP across 12 starts would lead the majors if he had enough innings to qualify. Gilbert is making his third start since returning from injury and sports a 3.12 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. This game’s 7.5 run total is the lowest of the night.

The Blue Jays (43-37) are an MLB-best 47-33 on the run line, and are locked in a pick’em against the struggling Red Sox (40-42), who have lost five straight. Brayan Bello is pitching for Boston, and Toronto has a combined .319 batting average against him in 102 plate appearances.

Kansas City (38-43) is an underdog at home in its series opener against the Los Angeles Dodgers (51-31). L.A. is fresh off a sweep of Colorado and is averaging 6.3 runs in its last 10 games. Rookie Noah Cameron is tasked with slowing down that lineup and owns a stellar 2.03 ERA.

Today’s MLB schedule

New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

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Athletics vs. New York Yankees

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Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles

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St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cleveland Guardians

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Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers

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Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox

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San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds

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Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves

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San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago White Sox

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Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers

Embed: #115262

Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros

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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Kansas City Royals

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Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers

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Washington Nationals vs. Los Angeles Angels

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Miami Marlins vs. Arizona Diamondbacks

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Tallon Griekspoor vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime odds and best bet: Mallorca Championship semifinal tennis prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime and Tallon Griekspoor battle in the Mallorca Championship semifinal on Friday.

The pre-match narrative: Both players are in strong form ahead of Wimbledon and aim to enter the grand slam with a title under their belt. Auger-Aliassime is two wins away from securing his third ATP singles title of the season and is favoured to win on his best surface.

Check out our Griekspoor vs. Auger-Aliassime odds and my best bet for the June 27 men’s tennis match.

Griekspoor vs. Auger-Aliassime odds

Full Mallorca Championships betting markets

Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Griekspoor vs. Auger-Aliassime markets	Betting odds
Griekspoor to win	+116
Auger-Aliassime to win	-143
Griekspoor +1.5 sets	-250
Auger-Aliassime -1.5 sets	+195
Griekspoor +1.5 games	-125
Auger-Aliassime -1.5 games	-103
Over 2.5 sets	+115
Under 2.5 sets	-148
Over 25.5 games	-107
Under 25.5 games	-120

Mallorca Championships odds as of 2:48 p.m. on 06/26/2025.

Best men’s tennis pick

Best bet: Over 2.5 sets (+115)

I was bullish on Gabriel Diallo taking down Griekspoor on Thursday, but the Dutchman prevailed over the Canadian with a straight-set win.

That marked Griekspoor’s second straight victory after coming back from an injury, where he was forced to retire against Alexander Zverev in the fourth round at the French Open.

Before then, he was on a solid run, winning five of his previous six matches.

It seems conditioning isn’t an issue for Griekspoor, and the time off may have even worked in his favour. With that said, I can’t see him toppling FAA in straight sets.

The Canadian is 4-2 on grass this year and sports a 31-16 career record — his best on any outdoor surface.

Key stat: Three of Auger-Aliassime’s last four matches, all on grass, have gone the distance. This is shaping up to be another even match.

Tennis predictions made at 2:52 p.m. on 06/26/2025.

Tallon Griekspoor vs. Felix Auger-Aliassime odds and best bet: Mallorca Championship semifinal tennis prediction

Felix Auger-Aliassime and Tallon Griekspoor battle in the Mallorca Championship semifinal on Friday.

The pre-match narrative: Both players are in strong form ahead of Wimbledon and aim to enter the grand slam with a title under their belt. Auger-Aliassime is two wins away from securing his third ATP singles title of the season and is favoured to win on his best surface.

Check out our Griekspoor vs. Auger-Aliassime odds and my best bet for the June 27 men’s tennis match.

Griekspoor vs. Auger-Aliassime odds

Full Mallorca Championships betting markets

Griekspoor vs. Auger-Aliassime markets	Betting odds
Griekspoor to win	+115
Auger-Aliassime to win	-150
Griekspoor +1.5 sets	-225
Auger-Aliassime -1.5 sets	+160
Griekspoor +1.5 games	-120
Auger-Aliassime -1.5 games	-112
Over 2.5 sets	+125
Under 2.5 sets	-175
Over 24.5 games	-112
Under 24.5 games	-118

Mallorca Championships odds as of 2:48 p.m. on 06/26/2025.

Best men’s tennis pick

Best bet: Over 2.5 sets (+125)

I was bullish on Gabriel Diallo taking down Griekspoor on Thursday, but the Dutchman prevailed over the Canadian with a straight-set win.

That marked Griekspoor’s second straight victory after coming back from an injury, where he was forced to retire against Alexander Zverev in the fourth round at the French Open.

Before then, he was on a solid run, winning five of his previous six matches.

It seems conditioning isn’t an issue for Griekspoor, and the time off may have even worked in his favour. With that said, I can’t see him toppling FAA in straight sets.

The Canadian is 4-2 on grass this year and sports a 31-16 career record — his best on any outdoor surface.

Key stat: Three of Auger-Aliassime’s last four matches, all on grass, have gone the distance. This is shaping up to be another even match.

Tennis predictions made at 2:52 p.m. on 06/26/2025.

UFC 317 predictions and best bets: Take the over in Topuria vs. Oliveira, back Brandon Royval to win

Two divisional titles are on the line at UFC 317 this weekend.

The pre-fight narrative: Ilia Topuria battles Charles Oliveira for the vacant lightweight title, and the former is heavily favoured in his divisional debut. Before that, Alexandre Pantoja aims for a fourth consecutive flyweight title defence.

Check out my UFC 317 predictions for the June 28 event in Las Vegas, featuring a pick on the main event and one on Brandon Royval.

UFC 317 predictions overview

UFC 314 predictions	Odds
Royval to win	+100
Topuria vs. Oliveira over 1.5 rounds	-148

UFC 314 predictions made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 06/26/25.

Go to full UFC 317 betting markets.

UFC 317 predictions

Best Bet: Royval to win (+100)

Royval is a slight underdog against the up-and-coming Joshua Van, but I’ll gladly side with the veteran here.

Raw Dawg has fought for the flyweight belt before, losing to Pantoja by unanimous decision. That was the second time he was defeated by the current champ since 2021 — but other than that, he owns a spotless 5-0 record.

Van is taking this fight on short notice after Manel Kape was forced to withdraw with a broken foot.

The 23-year-old is on a four-fight winning streak, but has struggled to flash finishing power in the UFC. Five of his seven wins in the promotion have been by decision, with a late third-round KO mixed in.

Royval has only been knocked out once in 24 career fights and is an elite grappler, with a black belt in Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and nine submissions to his name.

Van is a classic brawler, landing a blistering 8.20 significant strikes per minute. So Royval’s path to victory here is pretty clear: utilize his reach, press in tight for knees and elbows, and capitalize on a takedown opportunity when it comes.

I also think Van might run out of steam quickly.

He fought a three-round war against Bruno Gustavo da Silva on June 7 and had another three-round bout against Rei Tsuruya the month before that. Fighting that many times in a short span should catch up to him eventually.

Key stat: Royval is 3-1 in his last four fights as an underdog.

Quick pick

Topuria vs. Oliveira over 1.5 rounds (-148): Oliveira was once the lightweight king, but he had that title taken from him after losing to Islam Makhachev at UFC 280.

Now, he has a chance to reclaim the throne against Topuria, who is one of the most exciting fighters on the promotion.

The Georgian cleaned out the featherweight division and has a perfect 16-0 record coming into this fight.

He has elite finishing skills, winning six of those by knockout and eight by submission. Still, I think he will have his hands full in securing an early finish against Oliveira.

Topuria hasn’t secured a finish in under 1.5 rounds since March of 2022 (five-fight stretch) when he knocked out Jai Herbert 1:07 into the second round.

He needed three rounds to put out Max Holloway at UFC 308 and just over 1.5 against Alexander Volkanovski, who was moving up a weight class, in the fight before that.

Oliveira’s last two fights went to a decision, and he has only been finished once since 2017 — by Makhachev.

Of course, there’s a chance Oliveira knocks out Topuria, but that’s coming in at +480. Topuria has seldom been knocked down and has an elite takedown defence (92%).