Alexander Bublik and Alejandro Davidovich Fokina are the focus of these Australian Open predictions.
The pregame narrative: Bublik is a massive favourite over Tomas Martin Etcheverry, while Davidovich Fokina is a slight underdog against Tommy Paul. I expect both players will punch their ticket to the fourth round on Thursday.
Check out my top Australian Open tennis predictions for Jan. 21 and 22, featuring a second-round pick on Ben Shelton.
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Australian Open tennis predictions
Best bet: Davidovich Fokina to win (+162)
I’m a big believer in Davidovich Fokina, who is on the cusp of becoming a world-class player.
The Spaniard holds a career-high ATP No. 14 ranking and went 44-26 in 2025. The only thing standing between him and the game’s elite is closing out tournaments.
Davidovich Fokina made four finals last year and lost all of them.
All of those finals were on hard courts, though, and he beat some top-end competition during those runs (Shelton, Denis Shapovalov, Casper Ruud, Taylor Fritz twice).
-> Check out the third-round Australian Open schedule
I think Davidovich Fokina can build off a strong 2025 by going deep in this tournament. That will start by getting revenge on Paul, who beat him in straight sets in Melbourne last year.
Paul had to take four months off following the U.S. Open with a foot injury. He’s 4-2 this year, but hasn’t faced the toughest competition and has yet to play a game longer than three sets.
I think Davidovich Fokina has a distinct conditioning advantage in this matchup, which should help him win extended rallies in later sets.
Paul and Davidovich Fokina rank 42nd and 49th, respectively, in serve rating. That means there should be plenty of running around and long sets.
Key stat: Davidovich Fokina is 34-20 on hard courts since the start of last year.
Australian Open pick: Bublik vs. Etcheverry best bet
Bublik -2.5 sets (+150): Bublik is coming off a career season and is 6-0 to start 2026 with a win at the Hong Kong Tennis Open. As a result, the Kazakhstani has now entered the ATP top-10 for the first time in his career.
-> Bet on Bublik in the third round of the Australian Open
He is 10-2 dating back to the Rolex Paris Masters in late October (all hard court matches), beating some big names during that stretch:
- Taylor Fritz (7-6, 6-2)
- Alex de Minaur (6-7, 6-4, 7-5)
- Lorenzo Musetti (7-6, 6-3)
Bublik secured eight of his 10 wins in straight sets.
Now, he faces Etcheverry, a clay-court specialist from Argentina with a 50.0% career win rate on outdoor hard courts, for a second time.
Bublik beat Etcheverry at a Challenger tournament in Turin (clay) last May: 6-2, 3-6, 7-5.
Ben Shelton Australian Open prediction
Shelton -2.5 sets (-154): Shelton’s second-round matchup against Aussie Dane Sweeny is a true David-versus-Goliath situation:
- Shelton (-1,600 ML): ATP No. 7, 6-foot-4
- Sweeny (+700 ML): ATP No. 182, 5-foot-7
Sweeny managed to pull off an upset against Gael Monfils in the Frenchman’s final Australian Open match on Monday by converting five of a whopping 19 break points.
He will be in much deeper water against Shelton.
-> See the latest betting lines for today’s Australian Open matches!
Monfils, at 39 years old, ranks outside of the top 82 in serve rating (that’s as far as the list goes on ATP.com). Shelton, meanwhile, is in his prime and ranks ninth.
The American has nine inches of height on Sweeny and should use that to his advantage by generating a ton of power on his serves and hitting balls well outside of the Australian’s reach.
Shelton has played five grand slam matches against players outside of the top 100. He won all of them in straight sets.
Australian Open tennis predictions made at 3:30 p.m. on Jan. 21, 2026.
