Avery Perri

Victoria Mboko is the last Canadian standing in Melbourne Park as we enter the fourth round of the Australian Open.

The pregame narrative: Mboko is a sizeable underdog against four-time Grand Slam winner and harcourt assassin Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian has won this tournament twice, while Mboko is looking to reach her first-ever Grand Slam quarterfinal.

Check out my top Australian Open fourth-round picks for Jan. 24-25 at Melbourne Park, featuring a prediction on Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien.

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Australian Open fourth-round picks

Best bet: Medvedev over 20.5 games won (-104)

Around this time last year, Tien eliminated Medvedev in the second round of the Australian Open.

That match required five sets, took four hours and 49 minutes, and was the start of a horrible year at the majors for Medvedev.

The Russian crashed out of his next three grand slams, losing in the first round at each tournament while almost inciting a riot at the U.S. Open. Fun stuff.

-> Check out the third-round Australian Open schedule

But it seems like Medvedev has found “it” after bringing on an entirely new coaching staff.

He’s a perfect 8-0 this year, with a win at the Brisbane International, and is 16-2 dating back to the Almaty Open in October.

I’m leaning with Medvedev winning this match, but I don’t want to pay the -225 juice.

This wager provides a couple of strategic benefits, all but guaranteeing a cash if Medvedev wins in four-plus sets (assuming he doesn’t lose 6-2 in the outlier). Additionally, Medvedev could go over 20.5 games in a very tight four-set match or a five-set match where he loses.

Tien has played in one five-set and one four-set match already so far, and he’s 13-2 in his last 15 matches.

This has the makings of another thriller, and I like Medvedev’s chances of racking up games regardless of how it plays out.

Key stat: Medvedev has won at least 20 games in all seven of his Grand Slam matches dating back to last year’s battle against Tien. He is 5-2 against this line in that span.

Victoria Mboko Australian Open prediction

Mboko +4.5 games (+123): Mboko rarely loses, and when she does, it’s not by a big margin.

• The Canadian is 70-16 since the start of last season, and she enters this match winning 15 of her last 17.

• Mboko already has wins over Naomi Osaka, Madison Keys, Coco Gauff, and Elena Rybakina under her belt.

-> Bet on Canadian Victoria Mboko at the Australian Open!

Sabalenka is in a different class, especially on hard courts, where she’s won all four of her Grand Slams.

The 27-year-old is in her prime and posted a 36-6 record on the surface last year — but I still don’t think this will be a demolition derby.

Sabalenka needed a double tiebreak to get past Anastasia Potapova in the third-round, showing that she is human, after all.

Mboko is red hot and has earned my respect even against the game’s best.

Australian Open fourth-round picks made at 3:30 p.m. on Jan. 23, 2026.

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Rising Canadian star Victoria Mboko can punch her fourth-round ticket at the Australian Open with a win on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Mboko has never advanced past the third round at a slam, and she is a -200 favourite over Clara Tauson. I think there’s value backing Mboko to win in straight sets. The same can be said for Taylor Fritz, who faces 40-year-old Stan Wawrinka on the men’s side.

Check out my top Australian Open third-round picks for Jan. 22 and 23 at Melbourne Park, featuring a pick on Tomas Machac.

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Australian Open third-round picks

Best bet: Fritz -2.5 sets (-137)

Wawrinka won the Australian Open in 2014 as part of a three-year tear where he also won the U.S. Open (2015) and French Open (2016) and was ranked ATP No. 3.

But that was a long time ago.

The Swissman has barely played since 2020, posting a 37-44 record over the last two seasons. And hardly any of those matches were contested on the ATP tour.

-> Check out the third-round Australian Open schedule

I have to give Wawrinka his flowers for getting to this point and triumphing in an epic five-set battle against Arthur Gea on Thursday.

It’s a good story, and an unlikely one, but Fritz should demolish the veteran in 40-degree heat with much less playing time under his belt.

Fritz has played 5:00 so far, needing 1:58 to get past his second-round opponent, Vit Kopriva. Wawrinka has played 7:53 and needed 4:33 to win his match against Gea.

Key stat: Fritz has won seven of his last nine five-set matches against opponents outside of the ATP top 100 in straight sets.

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Victoria Mboko Australian Open prediction

Mboko -1.5 sets (+128): Mboko put herself on the map last year by winning a WTA 1000 title in Montreal and the WTA 250 title in Hong Kong. Now, the 19-year-old has grand slam expectations.

-> Bet on Canadian Victoria Mboko at the Australian Open!

The Canadian has started 2026 off hot, advancing to the final at the Adelaide International before picking up two straight-set wins to begin this tournament.

She is now 54-10 on hard courts since the start of last season.

Mboko has forced an incredible 20 break points at the Australian Open so far, converting nine of them.

Tauson ranks 71st on the WTA in service games won this year (60.0%), so it’s likely Mboko will continue applying pressure on her return games.

The Dane went winless in Brisbane and Adelaide, the latter of which was a walkover after Tauson lost the first set, and needed three sets to win her second-round match at this event.

I trust the in-form Canadian to get the job done, and quickly.

Australian Open pick: Musetti vs. Machac best bet

Machac to win (+143): Machac is red-hot right now. He won the Adelaide International last week while dropping only two sets and just beat Stefanos Tsitsipas in a nail-biter.

-> Bet on Machac in the third round of the Australian Open

Overall, the Czech is 7-1 in 2026, improving his hard-court record to 187-91 (67.2%).

Lorenzo Musetti, who is favoured over Machac in the third round, is more of a clay-court specialist himself, boasting a 65.77% win rate on that surface.

On hard courts, the Italian hasn’t fared nearly as well, evidenced by his 55.4% win rate.

Machac has faced Musetti once before, on hard court in Marseille, and demolished him, 6-3, 6-2.

Australian Open third-round picks made at 10:30 a.m. on Jan. 22, 2026.

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