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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Australian Open predictions: Best bet and tennis odds for men’s final

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic lock horns for an epic Australian Open finale on Sunday.

The pre-match narrative: History will be made one way or another at Melbourne Park. Alcaraz needs a win to complete the career Grand Slam, and Djokovic can extend his record of 24 majors and 10 Australian Open titles with a win.

Check out my Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions and the latest tennis odds for the men’s final on Feb. 1, scheduled to take place at 3:30 a.m. ET.

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Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions

Djokovic was a huge +840 underdog heading into his semifinal against Jannik Sinner on Friday morning.

With Alcaraz already through after beating Alexander Zverev in a gruelling five-setter, it seemed like another chapter of a young, budding rivalry was ready to be written.

But Djokovic had other ideas, besting the World No. 2 to reach his first Grand Slam final since 2023.

Alcaraz is a deserving -334 favourite, but this match isn’t expected to end quickly. Get my best bet for the Australian Open final below.

-> Full betting markets for the Australian Open final

Australian Open men’s final pick

Best bet: Alcaraz over 20.5 games (-118)

I think Alcaraz will win this match, but not without a fight.

The odds indicate that, too, as Djokovic carries -225 odds to win at least one set. With that opinion, I think this is by far the best way to back Alcaraz.

If Alcaraz wins in four sets, with no tiebreakers, he would just need to pick up three games in the set he loses. If there is a tiebreaker in one of the sets that Alcaraz wins, he could even afford dropping a set 6-2 to Djokovic.

First, let me explain why Alcaraz should win.

The Spaniard was on a warpath leading up to his semifinal against Zverev, winning each match without dropping a set. He had a 2-0 lead on the German before eventually winning a 6-4, 7-5, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5 war.

-> Place your bets on Alcaraz vs. Djokovic now!

Alcaraz has now won 13 straight matches on hard court at Grand Slams dating back to last year’s Australian Open, when he lost to … Djokovic.

The Spaniard got revenge against Djokovic at the 2025 U.S. Open semifinal later that year. These two have combined for some spirited battles, and I don’t want to discount the 24-time Grand Slam winner amid his stellar play.

Djokovic will throw everything he has at Alcaraz. I see the young gun winning in four or five competitive sets.

Key stat: Alcaraz has gone over this line in five of his six Grand Slam victories.

Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions made at 12 p.m. on Jan. 30, 2026.

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Carlos Alcaraz vs. Novak Djokovic Australian Open predictions: Best bet and tennis odds for men’s final

Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic lock horns for an epic Australian Open finale on Sunday.

The pre-match narrative: History will be made one way or another at Melbourne Park. Alcaraz, 22, could become the youngest man to complete the Grand Slam. Djokovic, meanwhile, aims to extend his record of 24 majors and 10 Australian Open titles.

Check out my Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions and the latest tennis odds for the men’s final on Feb. 1, scheduled to take place at 3:30 a.m. ET.

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Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions

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Djokovic was a huge +840 underdog heading into his semifinal against Jannik Sinner on Friday morning.

With Alcaraz already through after beating Alexander Zverev in a gruelling five-setter, it seemed like another chapter of a young, budding rivalry was ready to be written.

But Djokovic had other ideas, besting the World No. 2 to reach his first Grand Slam final since 2023.

Alcaraz is a deserving favourite, but this match isn’t expected to end quickly. Get my best bet for the Australian Open final below.

-> Full betting markets for the Australian Open final

Australian Open men’s final pick

Best bet: Alcaraz over 20.5 games (-117)

I think Alcaraz will win this match, but not without a fight.

The odds indicate that, too, as Djokovic carries -230 odds to win at least one set.

That said, I think this is the best way to back Alcaraz.

If Alcaraz wins in four sets, with no tiebreakers, he would need to pick up three games in the set he loses. If there is a tiebreaker in one of the sets that Alcaraz wins, he could even afford dropping a set 6-2 to Djokovic.

First, let me explain why Alcaraz should win.

The Spaniard was on a warpath leading up to his semifinal against Zverev, winning each match without dropping a set. He had a 2-0 lead on the German before eventually winning a 6-4, 7-5, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5 war.

-> Place your bets on Alcaraz vs. Djokovic now!

Alcaraz has now won 13 straight matches on hard court at Grand Slams dating back to last year’s Australian Open, when he lost to … Djokovic.

The Spaniard got revenge against Djokovic at the 2025 U.S. Open semifinal later that year.

These two have combined for some spirited battles, and I don’t want to discount the 24-time Grand Slam winner amid his stellar play.

Djokovic will throw everything he has at Alcaraz. I see the young gun winning in four or five competitive sets.

Key stat: Alcaraz has gone over this line in five of his six Grand Slam victories.

Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions made at 12 p.m. on Jan. 30, 2026.

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Raptors vs. Magic prop picks Jan. 30: Bet on Anthony Black, Scottie Barnes on Friday

The Toronto Raptors hit the road for a meeting with the Orlando Magic on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto just returned from a West Coast road trip, losing to the New York Knicks handily on Wednesday. Now, the Raptors are in Orlando for one night before beginning a five-game homestand. They are slight 1.5-point underdogs amid this odd scheduling quirk.

Check out my Raptors vs. Magic prop picks for Jan. 30, featuring Anthony Black and Scottie Barnes.

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Raptors vs. Magic prop picks

Best Bet: Black over 1.5 threes (-130)

Black started the season as a bench player, but the third-year lottery pick out of Arkansas has found his way into the starting lineup for the last 22 games.

Mostly, it was because of Jalen Suggs missing time. Tonight, Franz Wagner is out, sliding Desmond Bane to small forward and Black to shooting guard.

Opportunities came knocking, and Black answered. Check out his stats as a starter:

18.7 points/game
2.3 threes/game
38.6 3PT%

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Black has gone 15-7 against this line since entering the starting lineup, and he’s hit multiple triples in seven of his last eight games.

In that eight-game segment, he is averaging 2.8 makes on 42.3% shooting.

Toronto is a great defensive team, with the second-best 3-point defence in the NBA. But Black is taking — and making — enough shots where that doesn’t matter to me.

Key stat: Black has attempted 7+ threes in three straight games, clearing this line each time.

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Raptors picks and predictions

Barnes over 7.5 rebounds (-143): My apologies in advance for giving out two plays with this much juice.

But Barnes has been a wrecking ball on the glass lately, so I think it’s worth it.

The power forward has cleared this mark in four of his last five games, with seven rebounds in the outlier.

Barnes has had 7+ rebounds in 14 of his last 16 games, a very solid floor to work with.

-> Bet on Scottie Barnes tonight!

Barnes recorded 11 rebounds in a game against the Magic on Dec. 29 (without Jakob Poeltl, who is also out tonight). He is now 5-1 against this line in his last six games versus Orlando and should keep the rebounds coming.

Raptors vs. Magic prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 30, 2026.

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Sabalenka vs. Rybakina Australian Open predictions and odds: Back underdog Rybakina to win women’s final

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina close out the 2026 Australian Open with a star-studded women’s final on Saturday.

The pre-match narrative: Rybakina bested Sabalenka to capture the WTA Finals last year and has yet to drop a set at Melbourne Park. But it’s Sabalenka who’s a slight favourite, searching for her fifth Grand Slam and third Australian Open title.

Check out my Sabalenka vs. Rybakina predictions and the latest tennis odds for the women’s final on Jan. 31, scheduled to take place at 3:30 a.m. ET.

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Sabalenka vs. Rybakina predictions

These finalists are basically the same age, with Sabalenka having a year on her counterpart.

If you ask me who has had the better career or who will finish with the better career, I’d say Sabalenka.

But right now, Rybakina is playing on a different level. See why I’m picking her to win as a +130 underdog.

-> Full betting markets for the Australian Open final

Australian Open women’s final pick

Best bet: Rybakina to win (+130)

I’ve picked the Kazakhstani in three straight rounds, twice to win in straight sets (over Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula), and she’s come through.

How could I get off this train in the final?

Rybakina has won 19 of her last 20 matches on hard court.

That includes wins over Swiatek (twice), Pegula (twice) and Sabalenka.

Fifteen of those 19 wins were in straight sets, including her 6-3, 7-6 win over Sabalenka in the WTA Finals.

-> Place your bets on Sabalenka vs. Rybakina now!

These two have an extensive history, tipping 8-6 in Sabalenka’s favour. But Rybakina has won four of the last five meetings against the Belarusian on hard courts.

The skill gap isn’t that big to begin with, and the red-hot Rybakina has a very solid record against the WTA’s No. 1-ranked player.

Key stat: Rybakina has won 74% of her first serve points and has only been broken eight times all tournament.

Sabalenka vs. Rybakina predictions made at 1 p.m. on Jan. 29, 2026.

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Sabalenka vs. Rybakina Australian Open predictions and odds: Back underdog Rybakina to win women’s final

Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina close out the 2026 Australian Open with a star-studded women’s final on Saturday.

The pre-match narrative: Rybakina bested Sabalenka to capture the WTA Finals last year and has yet to drop a set at Melbourne Park. But it’s Sabalenka who’s a slight favourite, searching for her fifth Grand Slam and third Australian Open title.

Check out my Sabalenka vs. Rybakina predictions and the latest tennis odds for the women’s final on Jan. 31, scheduled to take place at 3:30 a.m. ET.

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Sabalenka vs. Rybakina predictions

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These finalists are basically the same age, with Sabalenka having a year on her counterpart.

If you ask me who has had the better career or who will finish with the better career, I’d say Sabalenka.

But right now, Rybakina is playing on a different level. See why I’m picking her to win as a +143 underdog.

-> Full betting markets for the Australian Open final

Australian Open women’s final pick

Best bet: Rybakina to win (+143)

I’ve picked the Kazakhstani in three straight rounds, twice to win in straight sets (over Iga Swiatek and Jessica Pegula), and she’s come through.

How could I get off this train in the final?

Rybakina has won 19 of her last 20 matches on hard court.

That includes wins over Swiatek (twice), Pegula (twice) and Sabalenka.

Fifteen of those 19 wins were in straight sets, including her 6-3, 7-6 win over Sabalenka in the WTA Finals.

-> Place your bets on Sabalenka vs. Rybakina now!

These two have an extensive history, tipping 8-6 in Sabalenka’s favour. But Rybakina has won four of the last five meetings against the Belarusian on hard courts.

The skill gap isn’t that big to begin with, and the red-hot Rybakina has a very solid record against the WTA’s No. 1-ranked player.

Key stat: Rybakina has won 74% of her first serve points and has only been broken eight times all tournament.

Sabalenka vs. Rybakina predictions made at 1 p.m. on Jan. 29, 2026.

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Pistons vs. Suns SGP predictions Jan. 29: Back Jalen Duren and fade Cade Cunningham at +335

The shorthanded Phoenix Suns host the Detroit Pistons during Thursday’s late-night NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Devin Booker remains sidelined after suffering an ankle injury last Friday against the Atlanta Hawks. The Suns are 4.5-point home underdogs against the Eastern Conference-leading Pistons, who have won eight of their last 10.

Check out my Pistons vs. Suns SGP predictions for Jan. 29, featuring Jalen Duren and Cade Cunningham.

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Pistons vs. Suns SGP

Parlay: Pistons ML | Duren 15+ points | Cunningham under 9.5 assists (+335)

Pistons moneyline (-180): How about these Pistons? Detroit is looking like the clear-cut team to beat in the East in Year 2 of J.B. Bickerstaff’s regime, and the squad has no trouble performing away from home:

The Pistons are 15-6 on the road. That 71.4% winning percentage tops the Eastern Conference.

They also have the fourth-best road net rating (+4.3) in the NBA.

Detroit has won seven of its last 10 road games, with wins over the Lakers, Celtics, Cavaliers and Nuggets.

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Phoenix is no pushover, and I expect the Suns will turn this game into a slog without Booker. But Detroit lives in the mud, boasting the No. 2 defensive rating while playing at a middle-of-the-pack pace.

I trust the Pistons can pull out a gritty win, just like they did against the Suns on Jan. 15 (108-105).

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NBA SGP legs

Duren 15+ points (-180): Duren has elevated his game this season and has a strong case to make his first all-star team.

The fourth-year centre is averaging a career-high 17.7 PPG, and he has the sixth-highest field goal percentage in the NBA (63.1%).

He’s provided a very consistent scoring floor over his last 15 games, too:

14+ points 13 times
15+ points 11 times
18+ points 8 times

-> Back Duren vs. the Suns

Duren is living around this number on a nightly basis and has cashed this wager in three straight games against the Suns.

Cunningham under 9.5 assists (-130): Cunningham leads the NBA in assists per game (9.8) and had 11 helpers against Phoenix two weeks ago.

I want to fade him tonight, though, for a few reasons.

Phoenix allows the fifth-fewest assists per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

The Suns have allowed just 108.1 PPG in their last seven games, dating back to when they played the Pistons.

-> Full Pistons vs. Suns prop betting markets

Also, Cunningham had an uncharacteristically poor shooting performance against the Suns on Jan. 15, going 3-for-16 from the field in 39 minutes of play.

If the superstar guard can get things going as a scorer, I like his chances of falling under this lofty total.

Pistons vs. Suns SGP made at 10:50 a.m. on Jan. 29, 2026.

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Australian Open semifinal picks: Best bets for Sinner vs. Djokovic, Alcaraz vs. Zverev, Pegula vs. Rybakina

The Australian Open semifinals are set, with the four top seeds participating in the men’s draw.

The pregame narrative: Carlos Alcaraz can complete the career Grand Slam with a win in Melbourne, but he’ll need to get past Alexander Zverev to reach the final. That would likely set up another meeting with Jannik Sinner, who is a massive favourite over 10-time Australian Open champ, Novak Djokovic.

Check out my top Australian Open semifinal picks, featuring a pick on Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina.

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Australian Open semifinal picks

Best bet: Djokovic +2.5 sets (+115)

Djokovic had luck on his side in the quarterfinal, when a leg injury forced Lorenzo Musetti to retire up two sets to none.

The Italian was down in the third set, but Djokovic’s chances were cooked — even he agreed: “I don’t know what to say except that I feel really sorry for him. He was the far better player. I was on my way home tonight.”

I think the Serbian can parlay that good fortune into a semi-competitive matchup against Sinner.

-> Check out the semifinal Australian Open schedule

Djokovic didn’t have to play his fourth-round matchup, either, after Jakub Mensik withdrew with an abdominal injury.

That means the 24-time Grand Slam winner will be fresh against the ATP No. 2-ranked Italian. The extra rest should help bridge the 14-year age gap between the two greats.

Sinner has demolished everyone at this tournament, dropping just one set en route to the semis.

But Djokovic has been competitive in this matchup on hard courts recently, and I believe the veteran can find a way to win a set against his new rival.

Key stat: The Serbian has won at least one set in four of his last five hard-court matches against Sinner. That includes pushing the Italian to four sets at the Australian Open in 2024.

Top Alcaraz vs. Zverev Australian Open prediction

Zverev +6 games (-125): Is fading Alcaraz and Sinner a good idea? Time will tell, but I like the value on Zverev in this matchup.

The German is 6-6 against Alcaraz, and his most recent loss at the Cincinnati Open should be marked with an asterisk. Zverev could hardly move and fought through the injury in a 6-4, 6-3 loss.

-> Don’t miss out — place your bets for today’s Australian Open matches!

They are 2-2 against each other in Grand Slams, with Zverev going 2-1-1 against this line. That includes a win over Alcaraz at the Australian Open in 2024.

The biggest knock on Zverev is his mental game. The world No. 3 is as talented as they come, but he has never won a Grand Slam despite reaching three finals.

I don’t think he can stop another Sinner vs. Alcaraz showdown, but I expect Zverev to put up a good fight if he can keep rolling on his service games.

Zverev hit 74% of his first serves in the quarterfinal with 24 aces to one double fault.

Australian Open pick: Pegula vs. Rybakina best bet

Rybakina -1.5 sets (+105): I’ve backed Rybakina in consecutive matches, and she’s delivered. There’s no reason for me to get off this train now.

The Kazakhstani has won all five of her matches at this tournament in straight sets. Her most recent, a 7-5, 6-1 victory over Iga Swiatek, was quite a statement.

Rybakina has now won 18 of her last 19 matches on hard court.

That includes wins over Swiatek (twice), Aryna Sabalenka and Pegula.

14 of those 18 wins were in straight sets.

-> Bet on Swiatek in the quarters of the Australian Open

Pegula did win a set against Rybakina at the WTA Finals, but that doesn’t change my tune on this wager. I’ll back the hottest player in the world to keep on chugging.

Australian Open semifinal picks made at 12:50 p.m. on Jan. 28, 2026.

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Australian Open semifinal picks: Best bets for Sinner vs. Djokovic, Alcaraz vs. Zverev, Pegula vs. Rybakina

The Australian Open semifinals are set, with the four top seeds participating in the men’s draw.

The pregame narrative: Carlos Alcaraz can complete the career Grand Slam with a win in Melbourne, but he’ll need to get past Alexander Zverev to reach the final. That would likely set up another meeting with Jannik Sinner, who is a massive favourite over 10-time Australian Open champ, Novak Djokovic.

Check out my top Australian Open semifinal picks, featuring a pick on Jessica Pegula vs. Elena Rybakina.

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Australian Open semifinal picks

Best bet: Djokovic +2.5 sets (+125)

Djokovic had luck on his side in the quarterfinal, when a leg injury forced Lorenzo Musetti to retire up two sets to none.

The Italian was down in the third set, but Djokovic’s chances were cooked — even he agreed: “I don’t know what to say except that I feel really sorry for him. He was the far better player. I was on my way home tonight.”

I think the Serbian can parlay that good fortune into a semi-competitive matchup against Sinner.

-> Check out the semifinal Australian Open schedule

Djokovic didn’t have to play his fourth-round matchup, either, after Jakub Mensik withdrew with an abdominal injury.

That means the 24-time Grand Slam winner will be fresh against the ATP No. 2-ranked Italian. The extra rest should help bridge the 14-year age gap between the two greats.

Sinner has demolished everyone at this tournament, dropping just one set en route to the semis.

But Djokovic has been competitive in this matchup on hard courts recently, and I believe the veteran can find a way to win a set against his new rival.

Key stat: The Serbian has won at least one set in four of his last five hard-court matches against Sinner. That includes pushing the Italian to four sets at the Australian Open in 2024.

Top Alcaraz vs. Zverev Australian Open prediction

Zverev +6.5 games (-150): Is fading Alcaraz and Sinner a good idea? Time will tell, but I like the value on Zverev in this matchup.

The German is 6-6 against Alcaraz, and his most recent loss at the Cincinnati Open should be marked with an asterisk. Zverev could hardly move and fought through the injury in a 6-4, 6-3 loss.

-> Don’t miss out — place your bets for today’s Australian Open matches!

They are 2-2 against each other in Grand Slams, with Zverev covering this line three times. That includes a win over Alcaraz at the Australian Open in 2024.

The biggest knock on Zverev is his mental game. The world No. 3 is as talented as they come, but he has never won a Grand Slam despite reaching three finals.

I don’t think he can stop another Sinner vs. Alcaraz showdown, but I expect Zverev to put up a good fight if he can keep rolling on his service games.

Zverev hit 74% of his first serves in the quarterfinal with 24 aces to one double fault.

Australian Open pick: Pegula vs. Rybakina best bet

Rybakina -1.5 sets (+128): I’ve backed Rybakina in consecutive matches, and she’s delivered. There’s no reason for me to get off this train now.

The Kazakhstani has won all five of her matches at this tournament in straight sets. Her most recent, a 7-5, 6-1 victory over Iga Swiatek, was quite a statement.

Rybakina has now won 18 of her last 19 matches on hard court.

That includes wins over Swiatek (twice), Aryna Sabalenka and Pegula.

14 of those 18 wins were in straight sets.

-> Bet on Swiatek in the quarters of the Australian Open

Pegula did win a set against Rybakina at the WTA Finals, but that doesn’t change my tune on this wager. I’ll back the hottest player in the world to keep on chugging.

Australian Open semifinal picks made at 12:50 p.m. on Jan. 28, 2026.

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Knicks vs. Raptors picks Jan. 28: Back Toronto to win, Immanuel Quickley to score on Wednesday

The red-hot Toronto Raptors host the New York Knicks at Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has won four straight and can leapfrog New York for third place in the Eastern Conference with a win. The Knicks have a three-game winning streak of their own cooking, but they have the league’s worst road ATS record and are 1.5-point underdogs as a result.

Check out my Knicks vs. Raptors picks for Jan. 28, featuring Immanuel Quickley.

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Knicks vs. Raptors picks

Best bet: Quickley over 16.5 points (-118)

Quickley was traded from New York to Toronto alongside RJ Barrett two years ago as part of a blockbuster deal for OJ Anunoby.

I’m not calling for a “revenge game”, but I’m sure Quickley would like to stick it to his old team.

Toronto’s point guard is running hot, clearing this line in four straight games while averaging 25.3 points.

That includes a 40-point outburst against the Golden State Warriors and a 23-point game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday, when he shot 6-of-10 from deep.

-> Bet on Immanuel Quickley tonight!

Getting things going from 3-point range would certainly help Quickley clear this point total.

The Knicks allow the sixth-most 3s per game (14.2) at the eighth-highest clip (36.8%).

New York’s other defensive weakness is in the “short mid-range,” described as shots outside of the paint but inside the free-throw line, per Cleaning the Glass. The team ranks 23rd in short mid-range defence.

Quickley takes 48% of his shots from 3-point range and 31% of his shots from the short mid-range.

Key stat: Quickley is 2-2 against this line vs. New York (1-0 this year) but has shot at least 50.0% from the field in every game.

Raptors moneyline pick

Raptors moneyline (-125): There’s an old betting adage to fade teams when they arrive home after a long road trip, but I love the value on Toronto tonight.

The Raptors just went 4-1 on the West Coast, beating the reigning champion Thunder and picking up double-digit-point wins over the Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, and Golden State Warriors.

Toronto is now 9-4 since Jan. 1 with the seventh-best net rating in the NBA (+4.4).

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New York’s three-game winning streak won’t shake me off this pick. Two of those wins came against bottom-five teams (Brooklyn Nets, Sacramento Kings), and the other was a three-point win over the Philadelphia 76ers.

Before that, the Knicks had lost four straight and eight of 10.

And on the season, New York is a league-worst 6-15-0 ATS on the road.

Knicks vs. Raptors picks made at 10:28 a.m. ET on Jan. 28, 2026.

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Knicks vs. Raptors picks Jan. 28: Back Toronto to win, Immanuel Quickley to score on Wednesday

The red-hot Toronto Raptors host the New York Knicks at Scotiabank Arena on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has won four straight and can leapfrog New York for third place in the Eastern Conference with a win. The Knicks have a three-game winning streak of their own cooking, but they have the league’s worst road ATS record and are 1.5-point underdogs as a result.

Check out my Knicks vs. Raptors picks for Jan. 28, featuring Immanuel Quickley.

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Knicks vs. Raptors picks

Best bet: Quickley over 16.5 points (-117)

Quickley was traded from New York to Toronto alongside RJ Barrett two years ago as part of a blockbuster deal for OJ Anunoby.

I’m not calling for a “revenge game”, but I’m sure Quickley would like to stick it to his old team.

Toronto’s point guard is running hot, clearing this line in four straight games while averaging 25.3 points.

That includes a 40-point outburst against the Golden State Warriors and a 23-point game against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday, when he shot 6-of-10 from deep.

-> Bet on Immanuel Quickley tonight!

Getting things going from 3-point range would certainly help Quickley clear this point total.

The Knicks allow the sixth-most 3s per game (14.2) at the eighth-highest clip (36.8%).

New York’s other defensive weakness is in the “short mid-range,” described as shots outside of the paint but inside the free-throw line, per Cleaning the Glass. The team ranks 23rd in short mid-range defence.

Quickley takes 48% of his shots from 3-point range and 31% of his shots from the short mid-range.

Key stat: Quickley is 2-2 against this line vs. New York (1-0 this year) but has shot at least 50.0% from the field in every game.

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Raptors moneyline pick

Raptors moneyline (-120): There’s an old betting adage to fade teams when they arrive home after a long road trip, but I love the value on Toronto tonight.

The Raptors just went 4-1 on the West Coast, beating the reigning champion Thunder and picking up double-digit-point wins over the Portland Trail Blazers, Sacramento Kings, and Golden State Warriors.

Toronto is now 9-4 since Jan. 1 with the seventh-best net rating in the NBA (+4.4).

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New York’s three-game winning streak won’t shake me off this pick. Two of those wins came against bottom-five teams (Brooklyn Nets, Sacramento Kings), and the other was a three-point win over the Philadelphia 76ers.

Before that, the Knicks had lost four straight and eight of 10.

And on the season, New York is a league-worst 6-15-0 ATS on the road.

Knicks vs. Raptors picks made at 10:28 a.m. ET on Jan. 28, 2026.

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