Avery Perri

Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.

NFL Week 7 TD picks and predictions: Back Saquon Barkley, Cam Skattebo on Sunday

NFL TD picks

A pair of NFC East running backs headline this week’s TD picks.

The pregame narrative: It’s been a rough two weeks for the Philadelphia Eagles, but I can’t look past Saquon Barkley’s price to score against the Minnesota Vikings. Elsewhere, expect Cam Skattebo to stay hot against a Denver Broncos team at a severe rest disadvantage.

Check out my top Week 7 NFL TD picks, featuring a pick on Los Angeles Chargers RB Keenan Allen.

NFL TD picks: Week 7

Best bet: Skattebo to score (+110)

Skattebo and Jaxson Dart have done the impossible, bringing exciting football to the Meadowlands.

The rookie duo has authored a pair of upset wins since Dart took over, with Skattebo putting together the best performance of his young career against the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football in Week 6:

  • 19 carries
  • 98 yards
  • 3 touchdowns

Do I think he’ll replicate that against Denver? Probably not.

The Broncos’ defence has held opponents to the second-fewest points (15.8) and yards (254.2) per game, so this is far from an easy matchup.

But Denver is flying back from London to play at altitude, while New York has had an extended rest following its TNF victory.

Some fatigue should set in for the defence. We just saw the Cleveland Browns get torn up by the Pittsburgh Steelers in a similar situation.

If and when New York gets into scoring territory, Skattebo will be the man who gets the ball.

Key stat: Skattebo has received all but two of the Giants’ 24 red zone carries for RBs this season.

Best NFL touchdown bets

Barkley to score (-152): Nothing has gone right lately for the Eagles, who have dropped consecutive games to the Giants and Broncos.

Barkley was particularly invisible in those games, rushing the ball a combined 18 times for 88 yards. That 4.9 YPC mark is solid, so it’s fair to wonder why he isn’t getting more touches.

Is first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo trying to placate A.J. Brown with a pass-heavy attack? Possibly.

Regardless, the Eagles should go back to what works this week, and that’s running the football down the opposition’s throat.

Barkley doesn’t have a favourable matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. But I don’t think that will matter.

The dynamic RB had at least 18 carries in every game before Week 5, and I expect him to get back to that workload on Sunday.

Barkley has still cashed this wager in four of six games after scoring 20 total TDs across the regular season and playoffs last year.

Allen to score (+137): I backed Justin Herbert to throw a pair of touchdowns this week against the Indianapolis Colts, so I may as well piggyback on that with a pick on Allen.

Indy has beaten up on some bad teams, but it let competent QBs like Matthew Stafford and Bo Nix throw for three TDs apiece. Even journeyman Jacoby Brissett went for 320 yards and two TDs last week.

Allen has the third-most red zone targets (10) in the NFL. He’s turned that into three scores and has now connected with Herbert 28 times in the end zone.

The veteran wideout has had at least seven targets every game, so I expect him to remain involved in L.A.’s offence.

NFL TD picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on 10/17/2025.

NFL Week 7 TD picks and predictions: Back Saquon Barkley, Cam Skattebo on Sunday

NFL TD picks

A pair of NFC East running backs headline this week’s TD picks.

The pregame narrative: It’s been a rough two weeks for the Philadelphia Eagles, but I can’t look past Saquon Barkley’s price to score against the Minnesota Vikings. Elsewhere, expect Cam Skattebo to stay hot against a Denver Broncos team at a severe rest disadvantage.

Check out my top Week 7 NFL TD picks, featuring a pick on Los Angeles Chargers RB Keenan Allen.

NFL TD picks: Week 7

Best bet: Skattebo to score (+100)

Skattebo and Jaxson Dart have done the impossible, bringing exciting football to the Meadowlands.

The rookie duo has authored a pair of upset wins since Dart took over, with Skattebo putting together the best performance of his young career against the Philadelphia Eagles on Thursday Night Football in Week 6:

  • 19 carries
  • 98 yards
  • 3 touchdowns

Do I think he’ll replicate that against Denver? Probably not.

The Broncos’ defence has held opponents to the second-fewest points (15.8) and yards (254.2) per game, so this is far from an easy matchup.

But Denver is flying back from London to play at altitude, while New York has had an extended rest following its TNF victory.

Some fatigue should set in for the defence. We just saw the Cleveland Browns get torn up by the Pittsburgh Steelers in a similar situation.

If and when New York gets into scoring territory, Skattebo will be the man who gets the ball.

Key stat: Skattebo has received all but two of the Giants’ 24 red zone carries for RBs this season.

Embed: #119659

Best NFL touchdown bets

Barkley to score (-129): Nothing has gone right lately for the Eagles, who have dropped consecutive games to the Giants and Broncos.

Barkley was particularly invisible in those games, rushing the ball a combined 18 times for 88 yards. That 4.9 YPC mark is solid, so it’s fair to wonder why he isn’t getting more touches.

Is first-year offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo trying to placate A.J. Brown with a pass-heavy attack? Possibly.

Regardless, the Eagles should go back to what works this week, and that’s running the football down the opposition’s throat.

Barkley doesn’t have a favourable matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. But I don’t think that will matter.

The dynamic RB had at least 18 carries in every game before Week 5, and I expect him to get back to that workload on Sunday.

Barkley has still cashed this wager in four of six games after scoring 20 total TDs across the regular season and playoffs last year.

Allen to score (+205): I backed Justin Herbert to throw a pair of touchdowns this week against the Indianapolis Colts, so I may as well piggyback on that with a pick on Allen.

Indy has beaten up on some bad teams, but it let competent QBs like Matthew Stafford and Bo Nix throw for three TDs apiece. Even journeyman Jacoby Brissett went for 320 yards and two TDs last week.

Allen has the third-most red zone targets (10) in the NFL. He’s turned that into three scores and has now connected with Herbert 28 times in the end zone.

The veteran wideout has had at least seven targets every game, so I expect him to remain involved in L.A.’s offence.

NFL TD picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on 10/17/2025.

Best NFL Week 7 prop bets: Back Quinshon Judkins, Jordan Love and Justin Herbert

NFL prop bets

Two quarterbacks and a rookie running back make up this week’s NFL prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Jordan Love and Justin Herbert are gunslingers, and I’m backing each of them to show out on the West Coast. Love takes on an Arizona Cardinals team with a porous secondary, and Herbert looks to defeat the red-hot Indianapolis Colts at home.

Check out my top Week 7 NFL prop bets, featuring a best bet on Cleveland Browns RB Quinshon Judkins.

NFL prop bets: Week 7

Best bet: Judkins over 91.5 rushing yards (-115)

The Browns have struggled to draft elite offensive talent recently, but it looks like they hit a home run with Judkins.

The Ohio State product has been a workhorse so far, averaging 16.8 attempts and 76.6 yards per game through five games.

That nets out to a tidy 4.6 yards per attempt.

Judkins struggled to get going last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers (12 carries, 36 yards), but he had 80-plus rushing yards in each of the three games before that.

Cleveland was at a severe disadvantage in its most recent contest, flying back from London to play a road game against a Pittsburgh team coming off a bye.

He should have a much better outing at home against this Dolphins squad.

Miami is giving up the most rushing yards per game (168.5) and the third-most yards per attempt (5.6).

With 50-60 mph expected wind gusts in Cleveland, both teams will want to keep the ball on the ground.

Key stat: Three of the last four straight starting RBs to play the Dolphins have cleared this line.

Best NFL picks

Love over 237.5 passing yards (-115): The biggest risk with this play, in my opinion, is that the Packers build a big enough lead where they can just run the ball.

But Green Bay’s ground attack hasn’t been amazing, and Arizona’s run defence has been strong.

  • Packers: 30th in run block win rate (69%)
  • Cardinals: 9th in run stop win rate (31%)

Josh Jacobs just churned out 93 rushing yards at 5.2 per attempt against the Cincinnati Bengals, but he’d failed to crack 4.0 yards per attempt in the four games before that.

I think the Packers will go all-in on the passing game against a Cardinals defence ranking 24th in EPA per dropback and 10th in EPA per rush.

Love has smashed this mark in consecutive games, logging 259 passing yards against the Bengals and 337 passing yards against the Dallas Cowboys.

Herbert over 1.5 passing TDs (-163): The Colts are off to a stellar 5-1 start, but I’m not sold on their secondary.

Indianapolis dominated QBs like Tua Tagovailoa, Cam Ward and Geno Smith but has gotten lit up by some better arms.

  • Bo Nix: 22-of-30, 206 yards, three passing TDs
  • Matthew Stafford: 29-for-31, 375 yards, three passing TDs

Even journeyman Jacoby Brissett managed to throw for 320 yards and two passing TDs against Indy last week.

Herbert is an elite talent and should be asked to throw the ball plenty with RBs Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton sidelined.

NFL prop bets made at 12 p.m. ET on 10/16/2025.

Best NHL anytime goal picks Oct. 17: Back Jake Guentzel and Ryan Donato to score

NHL anytime goal picks

Jake Guentzel and Ryan Donato stand out as solid anytime goal picks from Friday’s four-game NHL slate.

The pregame narrative: Guentzel had his third 40-goal campaign last season and is in a good position to do damage against the Detroit Red Wings. Elsewhere, I’m digging the plus-money value on Ryan Donato to score against the Vancouver Canucks.

Check out my NHL anytime goal picks for Oct. 17.

-> See live NHL odds for tonight’s slate!

NHL anytime goal picks

Best bet: Guentzel to score a goal (+138)

The Tampa Bay Lightning made a big decision last year by letting captain and all-time leading goalscorer Steven Stamkos walk in favour of Guentzel.

That’s the type of cold-blooded move that keeps championship windows open. Check out what each of them did last season:

  • Guentzel: 41 goals and 80 points (80 GP)
  • Stamkos: 27 goals and 53 points (82 GP)

Guentzel netted his first goal of the season on Tuesday when the Lightning played the Washington Capitals, and I’m sure there are many more to come.

-> Bet on Guentzel to score vs. Detroit at NorthStar Bets

The winger is leading Tampa Bay in xG (1.54) and high-danger chances (nine), according to Natural Stat Trick.

Detroit (3-1-0) is off to a red-hot start, beating the Florida Panthers and Toronto Maple Leafs (twice), but I’m not ready to call it a good team just yet.

John Gibson is in net tonight, and he got shelled for five goals by the Montreal Canadiens in his lone start.

Key stat: Last season, Guentzel scored 17 power-play goals, and Detroit ranked last in penalty kill percentage (70.1%).

Embed: #119639

NHL predictions

Donato to score a goal (+280): Donato is coming off a career year, netting 31 goals and 62 points with the Chicago Blackhawks. Both of those marks are practically double his previous highs.

The journeyman centre is leading Chicago in xG (2.33), scoring chances (23) and high-danger chances (eight) through five games.

With that said, I’m all over this price against a Vancouver team playing its second game in as many nights.

The Canucks are 2-2 so far and have given up 11 goals in their last three games. Thatcher Demko was in goal for a 5-3 win over the Dallas Stars yesterday, meaning Kevin Lankinen should get the call tonight.

Lankinen gave up four goals in his lone start this season and ranked 48th in goals saved above expected last season.

NHL anytime goal picks made at 10:25 a.m. ET on 10/17/2025.

Best NFL Week 7 prop bets: Back Quinshon Judkins, Jordan Love and Justin Herbert

NFL prop bets

Two quarterbacks and a rookie running back make up this week’s NFL prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Jordan Love and Justin Herbert are gunslingers, and I’m backing each of them to show out on the West Coast. Love takes on an Arizona Cardinals team with a porous secondary, and Herbert looks to defeat the red-hot Indianapolis Colts at home.

Check out my top Week 7 NFL prop bets, featuring a best bet on Cleveland Browns RB Quinshon Judkins.

NFL prop bets: Week 7

Best bet: Judkins over 92.5 rushing yards (-115)

The Browns have struggled to draft elite offensive talent recently, but it looks like they hit a home run with Judkins.

The Ohio State product has been a workhorse so far, averaging 16.8 attempts and 76.6 yards per game through five games.

That nets out to a tidy 4.6 yards per attempt.

Judkins struggled to get going last week against the Pittsburgh Steelers (12 carries, 36 yards), but he had 80-plus rushing yards in each of the three games before that.

Cleveland was at a severe disadvantage in its most recent contest, flying back from London to play a road game against a Pittsburgh team coming off a bye.

He should have a much better outing at home against this Dolphins squad.

Miami is giving up the most rushing yards per game (168.5) and the third-most yards per attempt (5.6).

With 50-60 mph expected wind gusts in Cleveland, both teams will want to keep the ball on the ground.

Key stat: Three of the last four straight starting RBs to play the Dolphins have cleared this line.

Embed: #119610

Best NFL picks

Love over 232.5 passing yards (-115): The biggest risk with this play, in my opinion, is that the Packers build a big enough lead where they can just run the ball.

But Green Bay’s ground attack hasn’t been amazing, and Arizona’s run defence has been strong.

  • Packers: 30th in run block win rate (69%)
  • Cardinals: 9th in run stop win rate (31%)

Josh Jacobs just churned out 93 rushing yards at 5.2 per attempt against the Cincinnati Bengals, but he’d failed to crack 4.0 yards per attempt in the four games before that.

I think the Packers will go all-in on the passing game against a Cardinals defence ranking 24th in EPA per dropback and 10th in EPA per rush.

Love has smashed this mark in consecutive games, logging 259 passing yards against the Bengals and 337 passing yards against the Dallas Cowboys.

Herbert over 1.5 passing TDs (-122): The Colts are off to a stellar 5-1 start, but I’m not sold on their secondary.

Indianapolis dominated QBs like Tua Tagovailoa, Cam Ward and Geno Smith but has gotten lit up by some better arms.

  • Bo Nix: 22-of-30, 206 yards, three passing TDs
  • Matthew Stafford: 29-for-31, 375 yards, three passing TDs

Even journeyman Jacoby Brissett managed to throw for 320 yards and two passing TDs against Indy last week.

Herbert is an elite talent and should be asked to throw the ball plenty with RBs Najee Harris and Omarion Hampton sidelined.

NFL prop bets made at 12 p.m. ET on 10/16/2025.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Game 3 NLCS prop picks and predictions: Back Ohtani and fade Glasnow in L.A.

Brewers vs. Dodgers picks

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers’ NLCS shifts to the West Coast for a pivotal Game 3 on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: L.A. won both games in Milwaukee and can put a stranglehold on this matchup tonight. The Dodgers are heavily favoured behind Tyler Glasnow, who is coming off a stellar performance against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Brewers haven’t announced a starter at the time of writing.

Check out my Brewers vs. Dodgers prop picks for NLDS Game 3, featuring a best bet on Shohei Ohtani.

Dodgers vs. Brewers picks

Best bet: Ohtani over 1.5 bases (+100)

Ohtani is batting just .147 this postseason and has failed to cash this prop in seven straight games.

That can’t last forever, right?

The soon-to-be MVP led MLB in total bases (391) this season, belting 55 home runs with a 1.014 OPS. I’m betting on a regression to the mean tonight.

It’s unclear who will get the ball for Milwaukee, but left-hander Jose Quintana seems like a strong choice to start the game and throw multiple innings.

Ohtani is 2-for-6 against Quintana with a pair of home runs.

After that, Jacob Misiorowski should factor in. The hard-throwing rookie has been great in the postseason and carved the Dodgers up earlier this year, striking out 12 in 6.0 IP … but Ohtani took him deep for 431 feet to begin that ballgame.

You can pull up stats for Ohtani destroying pretty much any pitcher in baseball. It’s an anomaly that he’s been so bad in the playoffs so far, meaning, in my opinion, this line has value.

Key stat: Ohtani slugged .622 at Dodger Stadium this year.

MLB best bets

Glasnow under 15.5 outs (-118): Los Angeles’ bullpen has only thrown one inning this series, after Yoshinobu Yamamoto followed up Blake Snell’s 8.0 innings, throwing a one-hit complete game.

Dave Roberts will have everybody available if Glasnow gets in trouble tonight, and I can see the righty getting an early yank.

Milwaukee’s offence was among the best in baseball this season, and I expect it to rebound in what’s essentially a must-win game.

Two hallmarks of the Brewers’ success are drawing walks and putting the ball in play. They had the fifth-highest walk rate (9.1%) and fifth-lowest K rate (20.3%) in MLB this season.

Glasnow has struggled with his command this year, owning a seventh percentile walk rate. He’s issued 16 free passes in his last 29.1 IP (five in 7.2 IP this postseason).

The righty averaged exactly 15.1 outs during the regular season, so it’s not like this is some crazy playoff-adjusted line.

Brewers vs. Dodgers picks made at 9:14 a.m. on 10/16/2025.

Brewers vs. Dodgers Game 3 NLCS prop picks and predictions: Back Ohtani and fade Glasnow in L.A.

Brewers vs. Dodgers picks

The Los Angeles Dodgers and Milwaukee Brewers’ NLCS shifts to the West Coast for a pivotal Game 3 on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: L.A. won both games in Milwaukee and can put a stranglehold on this matchup tonight. The Dodgers are heavily favoured behind Tyler Glasnow, who is coming off a stellar performance against the Philadelphia Phillies. The Brewers haven’t announced a starter at the time of writing.

Check out my Brewers vs. Dodgers prop picks for NLDS Game 3, featuring a best bet on Shohei Ohtani.

Dodgers vs. Brewers picks

Best bet: Ohtani over 1.5 bases (-107)

Ohtani is batting just .147 this postseason and has failed to cash this prop in seven straight games.

That can’t last forever, right?

The soon-to-be MVP led MLB in total bases (391) this season, belting 55 home runs with a 1.014 OPS. I’m betting on a regression to the mean tonight.

It’s unclear who will get the ball for Milwaukee, but left-hander Jose Quintana seems like a strong choice to start the game and throw multiple innings.

Ohtani is 2-for-6 against Quintana with a pair of home runs.

After that, Jacob Misiorowski should factor in. The hard-throwing rookie has been great in the postseason and carved the Dodgers up earlier this year, striking out 12 in 6.0 IP … but Ohtani took him deep for 431 feet to begin that ballgame.

You can pull up stats for Ohtani destroying pretty much any pitcher in baseball. It’s an anomaly that he’s been so bad in the playoffs so far, meaning, in my opinion, this line has value.

Key stat: Ohtani slugged .622 at Dodger Stadium this year.

Embed: #119569

MLB best bets

Glasnow under 15.5 outs (-107): Los Angeles’ bullpen has only thrown one inning this series, after Yoshinobu Yamamoto followed up Blake Snell’s 8.0 innings, throwing a one-hit complete game.

Dave Roberts will have everybody available if Glasnow gets in trouble tonight, and I can see the righty getting an early yank.

Milwaukee’s offence was among the best in baseball this season, and I expect it to rebound in what’s essentially a must-win game.

Two hallmarks of the Brewers’ success are drawing walks and putting the ball in play. They had the fifth-highest walk rate (9.1%) and fifth-lowest K rate (20.3%) in MLB this season.

Glasnow has struggled with his command this year, owning a seventh percentile walk rate. He’s issued 16 free passes in his last 29.1 IP (five in 7.2 IP this postseason).

The righty averaged exactly 15.1 outs during the regular season, so it’s not like this is some crazy playoff-adjusted line.

Brewers vs. Dodgers picks made at 9:14 a.m. on 10/16/2025.

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Toronto Raptors futures odds and predictions for 2025-26 NBA season: Picks on Brandon Ingram and Toronto to make playoffs

Raptors futures

The Toronto Raptors are gearing up for the upcoming season with their eyes set on the playoffs.

Toronto was a buyer at last year’s trade deadline, acquiring Brandon Ingram from the New Orleans Pelicans, while simultaneously tanking for a lottery pick. That positioned the squad to be competitive this season, with several contending Eastern Conference teams taking a step back with injury concerns.

Those are some of the questions worth exploring as we dive into Raptors betting markets and make our best futures predictions for the upcoming season.

-> Join NorthStar Bets & start betting on your favourite sports today!

Raptors futures markets

Raptors futuresBetting odds
Over 38.5 wins-121
Under 38.5 wins-110
To reach the playoffs – Yes+100
To reach the playoffs – No-127
To win the Atlantic Division+1,600
Odds to win NBA Finals+15,000

Raptors futures odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET on 10/14/2025.

Toronto is fresh off what I’ll describe as the “most ethical” tank of all time.

The Raptors went 30-52 — good for the seventh-worst record in basketball — while covering the spread in 59.3% of games, second to only the Oklahoma City Thunder.

How did the basketball gods reward their efforts? By having Toronto slide out of the top-five into the ninth draft spot.

The team used that pick on Collin Murray-Boyles, a standout power forward from the South Carolina Gamecocks.

-> Bet on Raptors futures markets at NorthStar Bets

It also marked Masai Ujiri’s last draft as team president, as the 2019 NBA Championship architect was let go, with Bobby Webster staying put as the general manager.

Toronto’s lineup should be competitive enough on paper.

Scottie Barnes headlines the group with Ingram, Immanuel Quickley, RJ Barrett and Jakob Poeltl — all capable NBA players — rounding out the starting roster.

Still, the Raps are long shots to win their division, with the odds skewing ever so slightly toward them missing the playoffs.

Raptors futures prediction

Embed: #118948

Best bet: Raptors to make the playoffs (+100)

I think Toronto is well-positioned to secure a playoff spot this year.

The Raptors have five studs in their starting lineup, with a bench that got a ton of experience down the stretch as those starters were often rested or held out due to injuries.

Barnes is a stat-stuffing extraordinare, averaging well over 30 PRA in the last two seasons.

He hasn’t developed into the offence-first player Toronto would have probably liked, but is still only 24 years old, and now gets a bona fide bucket-getter in Ingram to play off of.

-> Bet on the Raptors to make the NBA playoffs

Barrett and Quickley are capable of putting up big numbers on a nightly basis, and Poeltl quietly led the Raptors in win shares per 49 minutes (.158) last season.

And I’m very bullish on a bench featuring Jamal Shead, Gradey Dick, Murray-Boyles, Ja’Kobe Walter and Jonathan Mogbo.

With the NBA’s play-in tournament, basically any team is alive to make the postseason.

Toronto was only eliminated from the playoffs on April 1 last year, despite its horrible record. It should easily cruise up a few spots actually intending to win games this year.

Brandon Ingram futures prediction

Prediction: Ingram to average over 22.5 points (+150)

There are plenty of mouths to feed on Toronto’s offence. But Ingram was brought in and extended for a specific reason — to get buckets.

Think of the 6-foot-8, 190-pound small forward as a Kevin Durant lite. He has a solid handle, does tons of damage in the midrange, and has respectable 3-point shooting splits.

-> Bet on Brandon Ingram futures at NorthStar Bets

Let’s look at what he did over six seasons with the New Orleans Pelicans:

  • 23.0 PPG
  • 47.2 FG%
  • 37.2 3PT%

Ingram has ranked in the 99th percentile of all NBA players in mid-range shot attempts over the last three seasons, per Cleaning the Glass.

Last year, Toronto ranked in the 19th percentile for mid-range shot frequency and 29th percentile for 3-point shot frequency.

That’s not a sustainable way to play in today’s NBA, and I’m bullish on Ingram filling that void nicely.

Note: Player needs to play at least 50 games for the bet to stand. Play-in tournament games and the NBA Cup Final are not taken into consideration.

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Predators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks Oct. 14: Back Matthews, Marchessault to clear shot totals

Maple Leafs picks

The Toronto Maple Leafs are back in action for a third time in four days, this time hosting the Nashville Predators on Tuesday at Scotiabank Arena.

The pregame narrative: Toronto dominated play against the Detroit Red Wings yesterday, but came away with zero points in a brutal last-minute loss. The Leafs are favoured to get back in the win column tonight, with Cayden Primeau likely to make his debut in goal.

Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks for Oct. 14, featuring predictions on Auston Matthews and Jonathan Marchessault.

Maple Leafs picks vs. Predators

Best bet: Matthews over 3.5 shots (-138)

Leafs fans are accustomed to Matthews dominating out of the gate, so it’s a little disheartening to see him with just one goal (on an empty net) so far.

But it’s not for a lack of effort. Check out what the captain did during Toronto’s recent home-and-home with the Detroit Red Wings:

  • Saturday: Six shots (12 attempts), 0.62 xG
  • Monday: Eight shots (14 attempts), 0.9 xG

The goals will come soon enough, and I think backing Matthews to score tonight at -107 is a fine play.

But I just can’t look past this meagre shot total.

Matthews blew by this mark in consecutive games, and faces a Nashville team which has allowed the sixth-most shots on a 60-minute basis so far (30.67), per Natural Stat Trick.

Key stat: Matthews is 7-1 against this line in his last eight games vs. the Predators.

Best NHL prop predictions

Marschaessault over 2.5 shots (+105): I’m not sure what the Maple Leafs are going to get out of Primeau, who was brutal in the NHL last season but elite with the Laval Rocket after being sent to the AHL in December.

The netminder posted a 1.96 GAA and .927 SV% with the Montreal Canadiens’ affiliate in 26 games.

One thing I do know is that the Maple Leafs give up a ton of chances.

Toronto gave up the fourth-most chances (62.88) and eighth-most shots (29.1) on a 60-minute basis last season, and returned each of its starting defencemen.

Marschaessault is off to a hot start with the Preds, netting two goals and an assist through three games.

He cleared this total in back-to-back contests and ranks second on the squad in shot attempts (16) so far.

Maple Leafs picks made at 11:26 a.m. ET 10/14/2025.

Dodgers vs. Brewers Game 2 NLCS prop picks and predictions: Fade Pages, Chourio on Tuesday

Dodgers vs. Brewers picks

Baseball fans are treated to an elite pitcher’s duel in Game 2 of the NLCS.

The pregame narrative: Yoshinobu Yamamoto gets the ball for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who are slightly favoured to take a commanding 2-0 series lead. Freddy Peralta has dominated L.A.’s active lineup and will attempt to defend home turf for the Milwaukee Brewers.

Check out my Dodgers vs. Brewers prop picks for NLDS Game 2, featuring fades on Andy Pages and Jackson Chourio.

Dodgers vs. Brewers picks

Best bet: Pages under 0.5 hits (+110)

I think there’s a ton of value fading Pages tonight, given his current form and history against Peralta.

The Dodgers’ outfielder is hitless in his last four games and is batting just 0.037 (1-for-27) in the playoffs.

In that span, he’s struck out six times and has a 24% hard-hit rate. For context, Jacob Wilson ranked 246th out of 251 qualified batters with a 24.7% hard hit rate this season.

Pages is an elite defender, ranking in the 96th percentile for fielding run value, so I’m confident he’ll be in the starting lineup tonight.

That said, Dave Roberts may pull him from the game if L.A. needs offence as he did against the Philadelphia Phillies in Game 3 of the NLDS.

Peralta has been lights out this season, posting a 2.70 ERA and 1.08 WHIP, and has dominated Pages in a small sample size.

Key stat: Pages is 0-for-7 against Peralta with a 0.076 xBA in those at-bats.

MLB best bets

Chourio under 0.5 hits (+150): Chourio has cooled off after a nuclear start to the postseason, going 0-for-6 with three Ks in his last two games.

The 21-year-old centre fielder has pronounced lefty/righty splits and should struggle with Yamamoto’s pitch mix.

  • Vs. LHP: .343/.389/.584
  • Vs. RHP: .245/.280/.422

Yamamoto ranks in the 89th percentile or better in xERA, xBA and K rate.

The Japanese phenom leans heavily on a four-seam/splitter combo against right-hitting batters, throwing those two pitches roughly 54% of the time.

Chourio is batting .237 against those offerings from righties this season (.238 xBA).

Dodgers vs. Brewers picks made at 9:40 a.m. on 10/14/2025.