Avery Perri

Thursday’s NBA slate features just two games, including an NBA Finals rematch between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers.

The latest: Indiana is a hefty home underdog with Tyrese Haliburton, who tore his Achillies in Game 7 of the finals, sidelined. I expect Andrew Nembhard to step up in his absence, with Cason Wallace doing damage for the visitors.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 23, featuring a pick on three-time MVP Nikola Jokic when the Golden State Warriors host the Denver Nuggets.

-> Join NorthStar Bets and start betting on the NBA today!

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Nembhard over 20.5 points and assists (-121)

Oklahoma City is the league’s best defensive team, so this isn’t exactly a good matchup for Nembhard.

But I’m keen to back the Canadian in this spot. Nembhard has improved his game year-over-year and has an opportunity to take a huge leap with Haliburton out.

Nembhard averaged career highs in points (10.0) and assists (5.0) last season. Thats well under this number, but his numbers without Haliburton are much better (43 games played):

• 13.0 PPG
• 6.8 APG
• 12.1 FGA/game

-> Bet on Andrew Nembhard against the defending champs

Nembhard only shot 42.7% from the field in those non-Haliburton contests, so there’s certainly room to grow from an offensive standpoint.

As a passer, I’m hoping he can supplant some of Haliburton’s 9.2 assists per game, which ranked third in the NBA.

Key stat: Nembhard cleared this line in consecutive games to close out the finals against OKC.

Embed: #119994

Best NBA picks

Wallace over 1.5 threes (+148): This seems like solid value for Wallace, a member of OKC’s bench mob who should get staters’ minutes on Thursday.

• Isiah Joe and Jalen Williams are out. They ranked first and fourth, respectively, in 3-point attempts per game for OKC last season.

• Lu Dort, who ranked second in 3s attempted per game, is listed as questionable with an ankle sprain.

Wallace is a career 38.9% three-point shooter. He went 3-for-8 from deep on opening night while playing a career-high 42 minutes.

That game did go into double overtime, but he was one of the players Mark Daigneault leaned on down the stretch.

Jokic over 11.5 rebounds (-110): The only question with Jokic at this point is how long he will want to play in the NBA. Because if he’s on the court, good luck stopping him.

-> Bet on Nikola Jokic at NorthStar Bets

Jokic has averaged north of 11.5 rebounds in four straight seasons and ranked third in rebounds per game (12.7) last year.

He’s going to play huge minutes on a nightly basis and has a great matchup against the Warriors.

The tallest player in Golden State’s starting lineup is 6-foot-7 power forward Jonathan Kuminga.

Jokic only played this iteration of the Warriors once — that’s to say, with Jimmy Butler — and cleared this line.

NBA prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 10/23/2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!

The NBA’s opening night concludes with a marquee West Coast matchup between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles is a 3.5-point home underdog, with LeBron James (sciatica) sidelined untill mid-November. There’s still plenty of star power in this matchup, though, with Steph Curry and Luka Doncic favoured to lead their respective teams in scoring.

Check out my Warriors vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for the NBA’s season opener, featuring both star point guards.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NBA

Warriors vs. Lakers SGP predictions

SGP: Under 237.5 points | Doncic 3+ threes | Curry 6+ assists (+330)

Under 237.5 points (-305): I want to stay away from picking a side in this matchup. Instead, let’s take the under on this heavily teased total, which provides solid negative correlation with the following two prop bets.

Last season, three of the four matchups between these teams went well under this total. The lone over landed on 239 points.

LeBron played in each of those games, and the ageless superstar averaged 32.3 PPG.

The King didn’t bring much to the table defensively in his age-40 season, so his absence should make it tougher for both teams to score.

Golden State ranked seventh in defensive rating last season, and both teams sat outside of the top half of the league in pace (possessions per 48 minutes).

Expect a slog on night one.

Embed: #119964

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on the opening night of the NBA!

NBA opening night SGP picks

Doncic 3+ threes (-275): Doncic is one of the NBA’s elite deep threats, ranking top-five in 3s attempted and made per game in each of the past two seasons.

• 2023-24: 4.1 threes on 10.6 attempts (38.2%)
• 2024-25: 3.5 threes on 9.6 attempts (36.8%)

That type of volume puts this milestone in play on a nightly basis.

The Warriors are far from a plus matchup, allowing the second-fewest 3s per game to opposing point guards last season, per Fantasy Pros.

But Doncic is going to get his shots up against any team, especially with LeBron (who averaged 5.7 three-point attempts per game) sidelined.

-> Bet on Doncic and more Warriors vs. Lakers prop markets

Curry 6+ assists (+105): Curry is a bucket-getter first and foremost, and that makes his remarkably consistent passing somewhat underrated.

• The future Hall of Famer has averaged 6+ assists in three of his last four seasons and 10 of his last 13.

• Last year, Curry averaged 6.0 assists and went 42-28 against this line.

• That includes three of the four games he played agianst the Lakers.

Los Angeles gave up the fourth-most assists per game to point guards last year (9.46). Expect Curry to be active as a passer again.

Warriors vs. Lakers predictions made at 2:25 p.m. on 10/21/2025.

-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!