Avery Perri

Sunday’s NBA prop picks feature a fade on the league’s hottest player, James Harden.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Harden has been the lone bright spot on a Los Angeles Clippers team which has lost eight of its last 10 games. But he’s worth fading in Kawhi Leonard’s expected return against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 23, featuring picks on Mark Williams and Luka Doncic.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 23

Best bet: Harden under 24.5 points (-125)

Right now, it seems like Harden is the only guy standing between the Oklahoma City Thunder and the potential No. 1 overall pick.

OKC has L.A.’s first-rounder this year, and the Clippers are an outright mess sans The Beard.

Harden is averaging 31.7 PPG this month and scored a season-high 55 points last night. He’s gone over this line in five straight games, so why fade him?

-> Fade James Harden vs. the Cavaliers tonight!

The 36-year-old guard has done everything for L.A., which will eventually wear on him:

• Harden shot inefficiently in two back-to-backs so far (7-of-25 vs. PHI; 7-of-17 vs. OKC).

• Last year, Harden shot 39.0% from the field and 30.0% from deep in 12 games with no rest.

On top of that, Leonard is expected to return from a nine-game injury absence. That will take some pressure off Harden to score, allowing him to facilitate more.

Harden is averaging 32.0 points without Leonard and 23.0 points with him, taking six fewer shots per game when the Claw is in the lineup.

Cleveland is also holding opposing point guards to the fifth-fewest PPG, per Fantasy Pros. This seems like a logical night for some regression.

Key stat: Harden is 0-4 against this line vs. the Cavs since joining L.A.

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Best NBA picks

Williams over 8.5 rebounds (-114): Spoiler alert: The San Antonio Spurs are a much worse rebounding team without Victor Wembanyama in the mix.

• With Wembanyama: 4th in rebounding rate, 7th in offensive rebounding rate
• Without Wembanyama: 23rd in rebounding rate, 29th in offensive rebounding rate

Williams is a big body on a solid Phoenix Suns team, and I expect him to be active on the glass this evening.

The 7-foot-1, 240-pound centre is averaging 8.2 rebounds this year and put up 10.2 last year with the Charlotte Hornets.

-> Bet on Sunday’s 8-game NBA slate

He doesn’t play as much as I would like — just 25.2 minutes/game — but should make the most of those opportunities against a middling Spurs lineup.

NBA player prop predictions

Doncic 4+ threes (+100): The Los Angeles Lakers might have LeBron James back in the mix, but everyone knows Doncic is the captain now.

The slimmed-down Slovenian has been on a tear this year, leading the league in scoring (34.6 PPG) while ranking second in 3-point volume (10.9 attempted 3s/game).

Doncic hasn’t been very efficient from deep, but that doesn’t matter to me.

-> Back Doncic against Utah on Sunday!

Doncic is 6-5 against this line overall, going 2-for-10 from deep against the Utah Jazz, tonight’s opponent, on Thursday.

Utah has the sixth-worst perimeter defence in basketball, so expect a better performance.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 23, 2025.

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The Houston Rockets host the Denver Nuggets for a heavyweight NBA Cup matchup on Friday.

The pregame narrative: Houston (10-3) and Denver (11-3) are among the Western Conference elites, ranking second and third, respectively, in league-wide net rating. The Rockets are slightly favoured as they search for a sixth-straight win.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Rockets SGP predictions for Nov. 21, featuring Kevin Durant and Nikola Jokic.

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Nuggets vs. Rockets predictions

Parlay: Rockets -2.5 | Durant 20+ points | Jokic 2+ threes (+325)

Rockets -2.5 (-106): You could make a solid argument for either team to win this matchup. I want to side with the hotter team, which is also playing at home.

• The Rockets are 9-1 in their last 10 games. In that span, they are leading the league in offensive rating (123.5) and are second in net rating (+12.9).

• Houston has beaten a slew of playoff contenders by double-digits, including the Toronto Raptors, Boston Celtics and Cleveland Cavaliers.

-> Build your Nuggets vs. Rockets SGP at NorthStar Bets

The Nuggets are 8-2 in their last 10 games, mind you, while ranking fifth in offensive rating (120.9) and sixth in net rating (+9.9). So, as mentioned, there isn’t much separating these teams.

Still, I like Houston’s scoring depth with Durant, Amen Thompson, Alperen Sengun and Jabari Smith Jr. all capable of having big nights.

And for what it’s worth, two of Denver’s three losses have come on the road.

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NBA SGP legs

Durant 20+ points (-385): Durant has been nearly automatic against this milestone for the better part of two decades.

• The future Hall of Famer started averaging 25.0 PPG in his 2008-09 sophomore season, and hasn’t looked back since.

• Durant is averaging 25.5 PPG in his first 13 games with the Rockets, going 11-2 against this line.

I could end the analysis there, but this should also be a nice matchup for KD.

Denver owns the second-best 3-point defence (31.8%), per Cleaning the Glass, but ranks 20th in defending the mid-range (43.4%) and the rim (68.3%).

Durant doesn’t rely heavily on the deep ball and can do a ton of damage inside the arc.

-> Back Durant and Jokic on Friday night

Jokic 2+ threes (-143): Houston defends the mid-range well but has a leaky perimeter defence. That bodes well for Jokic, who is on a tear from 3-point land in November.

• 2.3 threes/game
• 4.9 attempts/game
• 2+ threes in 6 of 9 games

On the season, Jokic is averaging a 29.1-point triple-double while shooting 40.0% from deep. That doesn’t seem fair, but the Serbian is truly a unicorn.

Jokic has cleared this mark in three of his last five games against Houston while shooting 43.5% beyond the arc.

Nuggets vs. Rockets predictions made at 1:12 p.m. ET Nov. 21, 2025.

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Friday’s nine-game NBA Cup slate is loaded with prop betting opportunities.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Derik Queen is having an impressive rookie campaign, and I’m backing him to do it all against the Dallas Mavericks. Elsewhere, Donovan Clingan should capitalize on a size advantage in San Francisco.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 21, featuring a prediction on Boston Celtics shooting guard Anfernee Simons.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 21

Best bet: Queen over 25.5 PRA (-124)

Is Queen’s “Baby Jokic” nickname on Basketball Reference a little much? Probably, but the rookie centre did his best impression against the real thing in Denver on Wednesday:

• 30 points
• 9 rebounds
• 4 assists

He credited that success to the return of Zion Williamson, who helped space the floor, allowing for cleaner looks:

“Z’s presence and Trey Murphy’s presence out there is huge … having them out there, the Nuggets keep an eye on him and they trust me to play my game.”

-> Bet on Derik Queen vs. the Mavericks at NorthStar Bets!

Queen has only played 58 minutes with Williamson so far, but the Pelicans have an incredible +24.2 net rating when they share the court, per NBA.com

Now, that duo will face a Mavericks team that gets eaten alive in the frontcourt.

The Mavericks are allowing the third-most points (25.4) and seventh-most rebounds (15.6) per game to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.

Pelicans interim head coach James Borrego should give Queen and Williamson plenty of run tonight.

Key stat: Queen is averaging 29.2 PRA in his last five games.

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Best NBA picks

Clingan over 10.5 rebounds (-105): Clingan is coming off a monster 21-rebound game and has now cleared this mark in three straight contests.

The 7-foot-2, 280-pound centre is a walking sequoia tree, and no one on Golden State’s roster stands anywhere close to that.

-> Bet on tonight’s 9-game NBA slate

Draymond Green (6-foot-6) and Jimmy Butler (6-foot-6) are the tallest players in the Warriors’ starting five. The only 7-footer who sees the court is sophomore Quinten Post, and he plays fewer than 15 minutes a night.

Clingan had eight rebounds against Golden State in October, but he got into foul trouble and only played 22 minutes in a blowout victory.

Last year, the UConn product had 15 rebounds against the Warriors in April.

NBA player prop predictions

Simons over 2.5 threes (+140): I backed Simons on this market against the Brooklyn Nets on Tuesday, and he fell just short, going 2-for-3 from deep in 26 minutes of play.

The Celtics are hosting the Nets tonight, and I’m hoping Simons shoots with a little more volume — because why shouldn’t he?

-> See tonight’s NBA prop markets

The guard is tied for the most 3s per game on Boston with Derrick White and Payton Pritchard despite taking far fewer attempts:

• Simons: 2.7 threes on 6.6 attempts (40.1%)

• Pritchard 2.7 threes on 8.1 attempts (33.1%)

• White: 2.7 threes on 8.6 attempts (30.5%)

Obviously, there’s a lot more to the game than just 3-point shooting, but Simons is as efficient as they come in terms of perimeter offence.

Brooklyn owns the second-worst 3-point defence (39.7%) in basketball, and Simons is 7-5 against this line in his last 12 games.

NBA prop picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on Nov. 21, 2025.

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