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Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets predictions Nov. 26: Take the over, back Nylander to score

Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a tailspin, and carry their road losing streak into a matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has lost seven of its last eight games, including three straight on the road. The Blue Jackets have already beaten the Leafs twice this year, and are slight favourites for Round 3. Auston Matthews was spotted at practice this week, but it’s unclear if he’ll play tonight.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets predictions for the game on Nov. 26, featuring a prop bet on

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Editor’s note: Auston Matthews confirmed he will be returning to the lineup tonight.

Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets predictions

Best Bet: Over 6 goals (-115)

We’re long past the proverbial panic button stage in Toronto.

The Leafs are dead last in the Eastern Conference and are giving up the second-most goals per game (3.73) in the NHL.

I don’t expect a reversal, at least not in the near future.

Toronto is giving up the fourth most chances (66.3) and shots (30.6) on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick. And it’s practically icing Morgan Rielly plus an AHL blue line right now with Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo sidelined.

Joseph Woll has done a decent job of mitigating the damage, but still has a 3.27 GAA thanks to the sheer number of shots he faces.

-> Bet on tonight’s Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets matchup now!

Still, I think taking the over on this total is safer than backing Columbus.

We’ve seen the Leafs outscore their defensive issues a few times this year, and Matthews’ possible return could be a much-needed shot in the arm.

But even if the captain remains out, Nylander and John Tavares are capable of driving the bus.

Columbus isn’t much better defensively, either, allowing the seventh-most chances (62) and third-most shots (30.72) on a 60-minute basis.

This should be a shootout.

Key stat: Toronto has gone over this total in 14 of its last 17 games.

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Best NHL prop picks

Nylander to score (+150): Nylander is one of the best players on the planet when he feels like putting it all together. I’m hoping tonight is one of those nights.

The Swedish winger has 10 goals and 29 points so far, and is on pace for a fourth-straight 40-goal season.

-> Bet on Nylander to score at NorthStar Bets

He has seven goals in his last 10 games and two in his last three, so we’re backing him while he’s hot.

Columbus, as mentioned, doesn’t have the best defensive track record. Nylander failed to score against the Blue Jackets last Thursday but did have a team-high six shots and led all forwards in ice time (21:50).

I like his chances of finding the score sheet tonight.

Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets predictions made at 11:30 a.m. ET Nov. 26, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 26: Back guards Fox, Booker and Ball go off

There are nine NBA games tonight, preceding Thursday’s league-wide off day for American Thanksgiving. I’ve got three prop bets on three of them.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Devin Booker has kept the Phoenix Suns competitive this year, and he’s got a great matchup against the Sacramento Kings. Elsewhere, look for De’Aaron Fox to keep producing with Victor Wembanyama sidelined.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 26, which include a prediction on LaMelo Ball.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 25

Best bet: Booker over 28.5 points (-130)

This is a big number, but it’s one Booker is more than capable of clearing — especially against Sacramento.

The guard is Phoenix’s clear-cut No. 1 option following the departure of Kevin Durant.

Booker is averaging 26.8 points while taking 18.8 shots a night. That 46.9 FG% isn’t super efficient, but I’m more interested in volume with this matchup.

On top of that, Grayson Allen (quadriceps) is out. He’s third in scoring (18.5/game) and FGA (13.3/game) on Phoenix.

-> Bet on Devin Booker vs. the Kings tonight!

Sacramento has the second-worst mid-range defence in basketball, allowing opponents to shoot 51.1% from that area of the court, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Booker is, and always has been, a mid-range assassin. He takes 54% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 100th percentile for all guards.

He went to work against the Kings in October, scoring 31 points on 52.6% shooting.

I expect a repeat performance tonight.

Key stat: Sacramento has the fifth-worst defensive rating (119.9) in the NBA.

Best NBA picks

Fox over 24.5 points (-118): No Wembanyama, and no Stephon Castle? No problem.

Fox has led the Spurs to a 3-1 record without Wemby and Castle, averaging 26.5 PPG and going 4-0 against this line.

-> Back De’Aaron Fox to fill the basket!

He should be leaned on again as San Antonio takes on the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Blazers are a 1.5-point home favourite, but have gotten lit up by point guards all season. They are allowing the second-most PPG to that position per Fantasy Pros.

Fox is also shooting a respectable 38.0% from deep, and Portland has a bottom-10 three-point defence (36.9%).

NBA player prop predictions

Ball over 2.5 threes (-154): I don’t usually like playing props at this price, but think it’s well worth it here.

Ball is ice cold from deep, averaging 1.6 threes on 7.8 attempts this month (20.5%). But he’s consistently putting up shots, even with the emergence of Kon Knueppel, which is key for this wager.

Last year, Ball averaged 3.8 threes on a league-high 11.2 attempts per game. I doubt he’ll finish with numbers like that, but it’s even more unlikely he’ll keep playing like this.

-> Bet on Wednesday’s 9-game NBA slate

Tonight’s matchup against the New York Knicks is a good opportunity for Ball to start trending in a positive direction.

The Knicks have a bottom-five perimeter defence (38.4%) and allow the third most 3s per game (15.2).

Ball has cashed this wager in four of his last five games against New York, averaging 4.8 threes on 45.8% shooting.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 26, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 26: Back guards Fox, Booker and Ball go off

There are nine NBA games tonight, preceding Thursday’s league-wide off day for American Thanksgiving. I’ve got three prop bets on three of them.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Devin Booker has kept the Phoenix Suns competitive this year, and he’s got a great matchup against the Sacramento Kings. Elsewhere, look for De’Aaron Fox to keep producing with Victor Wembanyama sidelined.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 26, which include a prediction on LaMelo Ball.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 25

Best bet: Booker over 28.5 points (-112)

This is a big number, but it’s one Booker is more than capable of clearing — especially against Sacramento.

The guard is Phoenix’s clear-cut No. 1 option following the departure of Kevin Durant.

Booker is averaging 26.8 points while taking 18.8 shots a night. That 46.9 FG% isn’t super efficient, but I’m more interested in volume with this matchup.

On top of that, Grayson Allen (quadriceps) is out. He’s third in scoring (18.5/game) and FGA (13.3/game) on Phoenix.

-> Bet on Devin Booker vs. the Kings tonight!

Sacramento has the second-worst mid-range defence in basketball, allowing opponents to shoot 51.1% from that area of the court, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Booker is, and always has been, a mid-range assassin. He takes 54% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 100th percentile for all guards.

He went to work against the Kings in October, scoring 31 points on 52.6% shooting.

I expect a repeat performance tonight.

Key stat: Sacramento has the fifth-worst defensive rating (119.9) in the NBA.

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Best NBA picks

Fox over 23.5 points (-130): No Wembanyama, and no Stephon Castle? No problem.

Fox has led the Spurs to a 3-1 record without Wemby and Castle, averaging 26.5 PPG and going 4-0 against this line.

-> Back De’Aaron Fox to fill the basket!

He should be leaned on again as San Antonio takes on the Portland Trail Blazers.

The Blazers are a 1.5-point home favourite, but have gotten lit up by point guards all season. They are allowing the second-most PPG to that position per Fantasy Pros.

Fox is also shooting a respectable 38.0% from deep, and Portland has a bottom-10 three-point defence (36.9%).

NBA player prop predictions

Ball over 2.5 threes (-143): I don’t usually like playing props at this price, but think it’s well worth it here.

Ball is ice cold from deep, averaging 1.6 threes on 7.8 attempts this month (20.5%). But he’s consistently putting up shots, even with the emergence of Kon Knueppel, which is key for this wager.

Last year, Ball averaged 3.8 threes on a league-high 11.2 attempts per game. I doubt he’ll finish with numbers like that, but it’s even more unlikely he’ll keep playing like this.

-> Bet on Wednesday’s 9-game NBA slate

Tonight’s matchup against the New York Knicks is a good opportunity for Ball to start trending in a positive direction.

The Knicks have a bottom-five perimeter defence (38.4%) and allow the third most 3s per game (15.2).

Ball has cashed this wager in four of his last five games against New York, averaging 4.8 threes on 45.8% shooting.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 26, 2025.

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Chiefs vs. Cowboys Week 13 SGP predictions: Back Mahomes and Lamb on Thanksgiving Day

The Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs meet for a high-stakes Thanksgiving clash in Arlington on Nov. 27.

The pregame narrative: This game is worth fighting off the tryptophan for. Dallas (5-5-1) and Kansas City (6-4) currently sit outside the playoff picture. A win would keep each team in the hunt, while a loss would be devastating. The Chiefs are 3.5-point favourites in Week 13 despite their poor road record.

Check out my Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions, featuring prop picks on Patrick Mahomes and CeeDee Lamb as part of a +310 same-game parlay.

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Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions

SGP: Cowboys +7.5 | Mahomes 20+ rushing yards | Lamb 70+ receiving yards (+310)

Cowboys +7.5 (-250): I think the Cowboys are live to win this game, and picked them as my top upset prediction for Week 13.

Why? Let me give you the Coles Notes.

Elite offence: The Cowboys’ offence ranks first in yards (387.3 YPG), second in scoring (29.1 PPG) and fifth in EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.

Key defensive additions: Dallas added five players — ILB Logan Wilson, DT Quinnen Williams, ILB DeMarvion Overshown, SS Donovan Wilson, CB Shavon Revel — following its Week 9 bye.

Two of those defenders (Wilson, Williams) were acquired by trade, and the other three returned from injuries. It’s a small two-game sample, but Dallas’ defence is 11th in EPA per play since Week 10 while allowing 18.5 PPG.

I expect the offence to put up points, and think the defence can hold Patrick Mahome and Co. in check.

The Chiefs are 1-4 on the road this year, averaging 22.2 PPG.

-> Bet on the Thanksgiving Day tripleheader!

Embed: #121579

Thanksgiving Day SGP picks

Mahomes 20+ rushing yards (-136): Dallas’ defence has bottled up two elite running backs since its bye, holding Ashton Jeanty and Saquon Barkley to 29 combined yards on 16 carries (1.8 YPA).

Kansas City’s biggest weakness, unquestionably, is its running game.

Isiah Pacheco is expected to return, but he’s failed to top 60 rushing yards in 16 straight starts. And Kareem Hunt, while reliable at the goal line, is a shell of his former self.

I can’t picture the Chiefs getting the ground game going, but I can envision Mahomes extending a few plays on his own.

The QB is 7-4 against this milestone and is averaging 28.9 rushing yards per game.

Dallas is allowing opposing QBs to rush for 24.6 yards per game. That’s the third-highest mark in the NFL, per Football Reference.

Lamb 70+ receiving yards (-157): Lastly, I’m taking the over on Lamb’s receiving total.

George Pickens is coming off a monster two-game stretch, totalling 18 catches for 290 yards and two touchdowns. But Lamb had 18 targets of his own in those games, logging nine catches for 141 yards and a TD.

Don’t fool yourself into thinking Pickens is the clear-cut No. 1 just yet.

Look at what Lamb has done in seven games so far, excluding Week 3 vs. the Chicago Bears, where he left with an ankle injury:

90.3 yards/game
6.2 catches/game
10.2 targets/game
6-1 vs. this line

Pickens has impressed, but I think the pendulum has swung too far. I’ll happily back Lamb to reach this milestone at a playable standalone price.

Chiefs vs. Cowboys predictions made at 4:10 p.m. on Nov. 25, 2025.

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Champions League Matchday 5 predictions Nov. 26: Bet on Harry Kane to score against Arsenal

A must-see match between Arsenal and Bayern Munich at Emirates Stadium highlights these Champions League predictions.

The pregame narrative: Both sides enter this contest with perfect UCL records while sitting atop their respective domestic leagues. Arsenal’s defence has been impregnable in this competition, but an old foe by the name of Harry Kane has Bayern firing on all cylinders.

Check out my best Champions League Matchday 5 predictions for Nov. 26.

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Champions League Matchday 5 predictions: Nov. 26

Best bet: Kane to score (+150)

What happens when an unstoppable force meets an immovable object? We’re about to find out.

Arsenal tops the Premier League with 29 points in 12 games. It has only conceded six goals in those contests and has been even better in the Champions League:

4-0-0 record
0 goals conceded
+11 goal differential

On the other side is Bayern Munich, which has blitzed the Bundesliga through 11 games. The Bavarians have 31 points while averaging an absurd 3.72 goals per match. Unsurprisingly, they’ve dominated in this competition as well:

4-0-0 record
14 goals scored (most)
+11 goal differential

Kane is the straw that stirs the drink for Vincent Kompany’s side, and I expect him to keep chugging.

The English striker has scored 19 goals in 15 matches across all competitions this season, including five in four UCL games.

-> Bet on Kane and Bayern Munich

Arsenal knows all too well about Kane from his days at Tottenham, when he scored 14 goals in 17 North London derbies. On top of that, the striker added a goal against Arsenal when Bayern eliminated them from the Champions League two years ago.

The Gunners’ defence is great, but it’s not perfect. It conceded a goal to Tottenham over the weekend and gave up two to Sunderland in the match before that.

Bayern is -335 to score on Wednesday, and Kane should be the man to do it.

Key stat: Kane has the fourth-highest FotMob match rating (8.54) in this competition.

Embed: #121575

-> Bet on Wednesday’s Champions League matches

Atletico Madrid vs. Inter Milan best bet

Inter Milan draw no bet (+116): Inter had its four-game winning streak snapped on Sunday when it lost the Milan derby, 1-0, to its cross-city rivals.

It was an unfortunate result for a game Simone Inzaghi’s side largely dominated:

64% possession
16-8 shot advantage
+0.9 xG

I’m confident last year’s UCL runners-up can shake that off with a road win against Atletico. The Nerazzurri are 4-0-0 in this competition, outscoring the competition 6-0 on the road (4-0 vs. Union SG, 2-0 vs. Ajax).

-> Wager on the UCL league phase at NorthStar Bets

Atletico is a much better team, and it enters on a five-game winning streak of its own.

But the Spanish side was smashed 4-0 by Arsenal earlier in the league phase and also lost 3-2 to Liverpool back in September.

A draw is in the cards, too, which is why I’m opting for this market for a little safety.

Champions League Matchday 5 predictions at 2:30 p.m. on Nov. 25, 2025.

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Stars vs. Oilers predictions Nov. 25: Back Dallas to win, fade Connor McDavid

There’s only one NHL game on Tuesday night, and it’s a Western Conference Finals rematch between the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars.

The pregame narrative: Edmonton returns home after a six-game road trip, where it went 3-3 despite some goaltending issues. The Oilers are favoured against the team they’ve eliminated from each of the past two conference finals, with Stars forward Mikko Rantanen suspended.

Check out my Stars vs. Oilers predictions for the game on Nov. 25, featuring a fade on Connor McDavid.

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Stars vs. Oilers predictions

Best Bet: Stars moneyline (+115)

It’s hard to bet against the Oilers at home, where they own a solid 5-1-2 record.

But I can’t get behind Edmonton with its goaltending issues, and the Stars are one of the league’s best road teams.

Stuart Skinner (.885 SV%) and Calvin Pickard (.851 SV%) have combined for the worst team save percentage in the NHL.

Dallas is 7-1-3 on the road, while averaging 3.54 goals per game. For context, the Carolina Hurricanes’ 3.50 goals per game rank third in the NHL.

The Stars already hit the Oilers for four goals in a victory earlier this year. I expect their offence to come through and do damage tonight, even without Rantanen.

-> Bet on Stars vs. Oilers at NorthStar Bets

Losing the big Finn to suspension is costly, but the Oilers have gotten shelled by lineups far worse than what Dallas will ice tonight.

And Edmonton is also missing some talent. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jake Walman and Kasperi Kapanen are all sidelined with injuries.

At the end of the day, I feel confident backing the team with better goaltending. And Jake Oettinger is light-years clear of Skinner or Pickard.

Key stat: The Oilers are giving up 4.3 goals per game in their last 10 games.

Best NHL prop picks

McDavid under 1.5 points (-134): McDavid is one of the best players on the planet (I would say the best if Nathan MacKinnon hadn’t hit another gear this year), but he still falls under this line more often than not.

The superstar forward has multi-point outings in 11 of 24 games (54.1% under rate), which is right in line with the implied probability of this wager (56.9%).

-> Fade McDavid on Tuesday night

Dallas is finding its form defensively, so it makes sense that bettors have to pay a little more juice on this prop. I’m happy to do so.

The Stars have allowed just 2.5 goals per game in their last 10 games. In that span, they’re ceding the seventh-fewest chances and 11th-fewest shots on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick.

Stars vs. Oilers predictions made at 11:07 a.m. ET on Nov. 25, 2025.

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Stars vs. Oilers predictions Nov. 25: Back Dallas to win, fade Connor McDavid

There’s only one NHL game on Tuesday night, and it’s a Western Conference Finals rematch between the Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars.

The pregame narrative: Edmonton returns home after a six-game road trip, where it went 3-3 despite some goaltending issues. The Oilers are favoured against the team they’ve eliminated from each of the past two conference finals, with Stars forward Mikko Rantanen suspended.

Check out my Stars vs. Oilers predictions for the game on Nov. 25, featuring a fade on Connor McDavid.

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Stars vs. Oilers predictions

Best Bet: Stars moneyline (+120)

It’s hard to bet against the Oilers at home, where they own a solid 5-1-2 record.

But I can’t get behind Edmonton with its goaltending issues, and the Stars are one of the league’s best road teams.

Stuart Skinner (.885 SV%) and Calvin Pickard (.851 SV%) have combined for the worst team save percentage in the NHL.

Dallas is 7-1-3 on the road, while averaging 3.54 goals per game. For context, the Carolina Hurricanes’ 3.50 goals per game rank third in the NHL.

The Stars already hit the Oilers for four goals in a victory earlier this year. I expect their offence to come through and do damage tonight, even without Rantanen.

-> Bet on Stars vs. Oilers at NorthStar Bets

Losing the big Finn to suspension is costly, but the Oilers have gotten shelled by lineups far worse than what Dallas will ice tonight.

And Edmonton is also missing some talent. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Jake Walman and Kasperi Kapanen are all sidelined with injuries.

At the end of the day, I feel confident backing the team with better goaltending. And Jake Oettinger is light-years clear of Skinner or Pickard.

Key stat: The Oilers are giving up 4.3 goals per game in their last 10 games.

Embed: #121570

Best NHL prop picks

McDavid under 1.5 points (-132): McDavid is one of the best players on the planet (I would say the best if Nathan MacKinnon hadn’t hit another gear this year), but he still falls under this line more often than not.

The superstar forward has multi-point outings in 11 of 24 games (54.1% under rate), which is right in line with the implied probability of this wager (56.9%).

-> Fade McDavid on Tuesday night

Dallas is finding its form defensively, so it makes sense that bettors have to pay a little more juice on this prop. I’m happy to do so.

The Stars have allowed just 2.5 goals per game in their last 10 games. In that span, they’re ceding the seventh-fewest chances and 11th-fewest shots on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick.

Stars vs. Oilers predictions made at 11:07 a.m. ET on Nov. 25, 2025.

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Clippers vs. Lakers SGP predictions Nov. 25: Back LeBron from deep, Zubac on the glass

The Battle of Los Angeles is renewed on Tuesday night, with two franchises heading in drastically different directions.

The pregame narrative: The Lakers (12-4) are humming while the Clippers (5-12) appear to be gearing up for the draft lottery — without owning their first-round pick. Kawhi Leonard is back in the lineup, but his squad is a 6.5-point road dog against LeBron James and Co.

Check out my Clippers vs. Lakers SGP predictions for Nov. 25, featuring LeBron and Ivica Zubac.

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Clippers vs. Lakers predictions

Parlay: Clippers +10.5 | LeBron 2+ threes | Zubac 10+ rebounds (+280)

Clippers +10.5 (-240): The Lakers are performing, especially at home, but I think there’s value on the Clippers on this alternate spread.

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Leonard makes a world of difference in how his team performs. The Clippers are 29-15 with him in the lineup since the start of last season (3-4 this year), covering a +10.5 spread in 86.3% of those contests.

James Harden is also playing elite ball right now, averaging north of 30 points this month while shooting 40.3% from deep.

I think that duo can keep this within reach, especially as JJ Redick navigates the best ways to use LeBron in this lineup.

The veteran forward was an ugly -14 on Sunday when L.A. failed to cover. His defence has really fallen off, and I think the Clippers can take advantage of that.

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NBA SGP legs

LeBron 2+ threes (-129): LeBron is just getting the wheels turning in his 23rd season after missing the first month with sciatic nerve discomfort.

The King has logged 30-plus minutes in both games so far, going 1-1 against this line.

I won’t put much stock into the results, but I am encouraged to see his offensive usage.

LeBron took 18 shots on Sunday (went 0-4 from deep), second only to Luka Doncic, and he should keep firing tonight against the Clippers.

L.A. is a bottom-10 team in defensive rating and has the fourth-worst perimeter defence (38.6%) in the NBA.

LeBron averaged north of two 3s per game in each of his prior seven seasons with the Lakers, and I expect him to get back to that number this year.

-> Back LeBron and Zubac on Tuesday night

Zubac 10+ rebounds (-175): This feels like a good time to back Zubac on the glass.

Deandre Ayton is out, leaving the Lakers’ frontcourt relatively undersized.

Jaxson Hayes is the lone 7-footer in the active lineup, but he plays less than 20 minutes a night. LeBron, Luka Doncic, Rui Hachimura and new signee Drew Timme all stand between 6-foot-8 and 6-foot-9, but that shouldn’t be an issue for Zubac.

The Croatian centre is averaging the most rebounds in November (12.8) and has cleared this mark in 11 of his last 14 games.

He had double-digit boards in all four games against the Lakers last year.

Clippers vs. Lakers predictions made at 10:30 a.m. on Nov. 25, 2025.

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NFL Week 13 upset picks: Back Browns with a rest advantage

NFL Week 13 kicks off with a three-pack of U.S. Thanksgiving games, and my eyes are set on one upset from that slate.

The pregame narrative: The Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs are fighting for their playoff lives, and I like the value on the former as a 3.5-point home dog. Elsewhere, look for the Cleveland Browns’ defence to make noise at home.

Check out my top NFL Week 13 upset picks below.

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NFL Week 13 upset picks

Best bet: Cowboys moneyline (+145)

Are the Cowboys back? It sure looks like it, and I want in.

Dallas scored 24 unanswered points in Week 11 to upset their divisional rival, improving to 5-5-1 while staying in the hunt for playoff seeding.

The Dak Prescott-led offence performed, as it typically does, but I was really impressed by the team’s defence. It held the Eagles to 88 second-half yards in the victory, which doesn’t seem like a fluke.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on the NFL’s Thanksgiving slate at NorthStar Bets!

Why? The Cowboys’ defence has gotten five key additions since its Week 9 bye:

ILB Logan Wilson (trade)
DT Quinnen Williams (trade)
ILB DeMarvion Overshown (return from injury)
SS Donovan Wilson (return from injury)
CB Shavon Revel (return from injury)

That’s four impact players, including both inside linebackers, stepping in to revamp what was an awful unit (Revel isn’t a starter, though he plays big minutes).

I don’t think Dallas’ defence is elite, but it looks good enough to keep Kansas City in check while the offence does its job.

Patrick Mahomes and Co. needed an overtime win to scrape by the Indianapolis Colts at home, and have been extremely underwhelming on the road.

Key stat: The Chiefs are 1-4 away from Arrowhead Stadium, averaging just 22.2 PPG.

NFL underdog prediction

Browns moneyline (+210): I backed the Browns to win in Shedeur Sanders’ debut last weekend, and they came through.

But it wasn’t Sanders’ doing at all. The defence, led by DPOY shoo-in Myles Garrett, balled out once again, holding the Las Vegas Raiders to 10 points in the loss.

Garrett added three more sacks to his gaudy total (18) and is now well on pace to break the single-season record (22.5).

He now has an absurd 13 sacks in his last four games, three of which Cleveland lost.

But two of the defeats were against Super Bowl contenders (Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots), and one was fluky as the Browns gave up two special teams TDs against the New York Jets.

-> Wager on NFL Week 13 at NorthStar Bets

I’m loving what Cleveland’s defence is cooking, and think it can wreak havoc against a San Francisco team playing at a travel and rest disadvantage.

The Niners will head East immediately after playing the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football.

At the time of writing (pre-MNF), the Niners’ offence looks largely healthy. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they picked up a couple of bumps and bruises, which could be exacerbated by Cleveland’s elite defence.

The Browns rank third in EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.

NFL upset picks made at 4:50 p.m. ET on Nov. 24, 2025.

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NFL Week 13 upset picks: Back Browns with a rest advantage

NFL Week 13 kicks off with a three-pack of U.S. Thanksgiving games, and my eyes are set on one upset from that slate.

The pregame narrative: The Dallas Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs are fighting for their playoff lives, and I like the value on the former as a 3.5-point home dog. Elsewhere, look for the Cleveland Browns’ defence to make noise at home.

Check out my top NFL Week 13 upset picks below.

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NFL Week 13 upset picks

Best bet: Cowboys moneyline (+160)

Are the Cowboys back? It sure looks like it, and I want in.

Dallas scored 24 unanswered points in Week 11 to upset their divisional rival, improving to 5-5-1 while staying in the hunt for playoff seeding.

The Dak Prescott-led offence performed, as it typically does, but I was really impressed by the team’s defence. It held the Eagles to 88 second-half yards in the victory, which doesn’t seem like a fluke.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on the NFL’s Thanksgiving slate at NorthStar Bets!

Why? The Cowboys’ defence has gotten five key additions since its Week 9 bye:

ILB Logan Wilson (trade)
DT Quinnen Williams (trade)
ILB DeMarvion Overshown (return from injury)
SS Donovan Wilson (return from injury)
CB Shavon Revel (return from injury)

That’s four impact players, including both inside linebackers, stepping in to revamp what was an awful unit (Revel isn’t a starter, though he plays big minutes).

I don’t think Dallas’ defence is elite, but it looks good enough to keep Kansas City in check while the offence does its job.

Patrick Mahomes and Co. needed an overtime win to scrape by the Indianapolis Colts at home, and have been extremely underwhelming on the road.

Key stat: The Chiefs are 1-4 away from Arrowhead Stadium, averaging just 22.2 PPG.

Embed: #121560

NFL underdog prediction

Browns moneyline (+235): I backed the Browns to win in Shedeur Sanders’ debut last weekend, and they came through.

But it wasn’t Sanders’ doing at all. The defence, led by DPOY shoo-in Myles Garrett, balled out once again, holding the Las Vegas Raiders to 10 points in the loss.

Garrett added three more sacks to his gaudy total (18) and is now well on pace to break the single-season record (22.5).

He now has an absurd 13 sacks in his last four games, three of which Cleveland lost.

But two of the defeats were against Super Bowl contenders (Baltimore Ravens, New England Patriots), and one was fluky as the Browns gave up two special teams TDs against the New York Jets.

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I’m loving what Cleveland’s defence is cooking, and think it can wreak havoc against a San Francisco team playing at a travel and rest disadvantage.

The Niners will head East immediately after playing the Carolina Panthers on Monday Night Football.

At the time of writing (pre-MNF), the Niners’ offence looks largely healthy. But I wouldn’t be surprised if they picked up a couple of bumps and bruises, which could be exacerbated by Cleveland’s elite defence.

The Browns rank third in EPA per play, per RBSDM.com.

NFL upset picks made at 4:50 p.m. ET on Nov. 24, 2025.

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