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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 28: Back James Harden, Mark Williams and AJ Green

James Harden headlines Friday’s NBA Cup prop betting predictions.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Harden has been vintage this season and has a Grade-A matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Elsewhere, I’m looking for Mark Williams and AJ Green to capitalize on light rebounding and 3-point totals, respectively.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 28.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 28

Best bet: Harden over 26.5 points (-120)

Harden looks ageless in season No. 19.

The Beard ranks 11th in scoring (27.9/game) and fifth in assists (8.4/game) while playing a monster 35.6 minutes a night.

His 30.4% usage rate ranks 13th out of NBA players with more than 10 games played.

-> Bet on James Harden vs. the Grizzlies tonight!

Kawhi Leonard is back in the Los Angeles Clippers’ lineup, which should take some scoring pressure off Harden. But the Grizzlies are a dreadful matchup for Kawhi and a perfect one for Harden (stats via Fantasy Pros):

PGs vs. MEM: 28.9 PPG (third-most)
SFs vs. MEM: 21.3 PPG (sixth-fewest)

Jaren Jackson Jr., aka the “Block Panther”, should make life difficult for Leonard. I expect Harden to pick things up and provide a ton of scoring from the perimeter.

Memphis has the sixth-worst 3-point defence in the NBA (37.3%), and Harden is attempting 10.1 threes a night.

Key stat: Harden is 5-1 against this line in his last six games.

Best NBA picks

Williams over 8.5 rebounds (-134): This seems like a very attainable line for Williams, who is off to a solid first season with the Phoenix Suns.

The big man is averaging 8.9 rebounds per game, ranking top 20 in offensive and defensive rebounds per 36 minutes, according to Basketball Reference.

Williams is coming off a season-high 16-rebound performance, and corralled 11 in the game before that.

-> Bet on Suns vs. Thunder here!

His Suns are huge road underdogs against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but I honestly expect this game to remain close.

Phoenix has been competitive so far and is a stellar 13-6-0 ATS.

Williams will have a plus matchup against an OKC team which ranks 27th in offensive rebounding rate. The Suns are a top-10 team in defensive rating, so I don’t think the Thunder will be automatic from the floor tonight.

NBA player prop predictions

Green over 2.5 threes (-138): Green is your stereotypical 3-and-D role player. The undrafted guard pretty much exclusively fires from deep — and he’s very good at it.

Green is averaging 3.1 makes on 6.5 attempts per game (48.0%).

He takes 90% of shots from 3-point range, which ranks in the 99th percentile for all wing players, per Cleaning the Glass.

This is Green’s first year starting, meaning he’s seen a serious uptick in minutes. With Giannis Antetokounmpo questionable, I envision a big role for him tonight.

-> B et on Friday’s 11-game NBA Cup slate

But even if Giannis is in, Green should be involved in the game plan. The Bucks take on a New York Knicks team with the fifth-worst 3-point defence (37.9%) in the NBA.

Green cleared this line against New York in October and is 14-5 against it on the season.

NBA prop picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on Nov. 28, 2025.

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Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks Nov. 28: Bet on Carlson to produce, Ovechkin to score

The Washington Capitals host the Toronto Maple Leafs for a 5:00 p.m. ET start on Black Friday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto got back in the win column during Auston Matthews’ return on Wednesday, but still sits near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Washington has been hot, winning five of its last six games, and is favoured to keep things rolling at home.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks for the game on Nov. 28, featuring Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson.

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Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks

Best Bet: Carlson to score a point (+110)

I want no part of the Maple Leafs tonight, and put little stock into Wednesday’s 2-1 victory.

Toronto has still lost seven of its last nine games while giving up 3.67 goals per game. And it would’ve lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets, too, if Joseph Woll hadn’t turned away 35 of 36 shots faced.

Expecting a repeat performance out of the young netminder is unreasonable.

The Maple Leafs give up the fifth-most chances (63.29) and second-most shots (30.79) on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick.

Their defence is sieve-like, and now they’re catching a Capitals team heating up heading into the holidays.

-> Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Capitals at NorthStar Bets

Washington is averaging 5.4 goals in its last five games, and Carlson has been at the forefront of that production. The defenceman has eight points in that stretch and is 4-1 against this line.

Carlson plays top-pairing minutes and isn’t afraid to shoot the puck. That means he can find the stat sheet with a tip-in or a teammate burying his rebound.

Key stat: Carlson is 9-2 against this line in his last 11 games.

Best NHL prop picks

Ovechkin to score (+137): In a perfect world, Carlson slides one over to Ovechkin, and the Great 8 puts it under the bar. We’ve seen it happen over 100 times, so why not tonight?

Ovechkin is the greatest goalscorer ever, and he hasn’t lost his touch after de-throning Wayne Gretzky.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on Ovechkin to score now!

He’s scored seven goals in his last seven games, putting a slow start to the season in the rearview. In that stretch, Ovi leads Washington in scoring chances (19), is second in xG (3.01) and third in shots (17), per Natural Stat Trick.

Toronto is giving up the most goals per game in the Eastern Conference (3.61), so this is a Grade-A matchup for him to stay hot.

Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Nov. 28, 2025.

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Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks Nov. 28: Bet on Carlson to produce, Ovechkin to score

The Washington Capitals host the Toronto Maple Leafs for a 5:00 p.m. ET start on Black Friday.

The pregame narrative: Toronto got back in the win column during Auston Matthews’ return on Wednesday, but still sits near the bottom of the Eastern Conference. Washington has been hot, winning five of its last six games, and is favoured to keep things rolling at home.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks for the game on Nov. 28, featuring Alex Ovechkin and John Carlson.

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Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks

Best Bet: Carlson to score a point (-106)

I want no part of the Maple Leafs tonight, and put little stock into Wednesday’s 2-1 victory.

Toronto has still lost seven of its last nine games while giving up 3.67 goals per game. And it would’ve lost to the Columbus Blue Jackets, too, if Joseph Woll hadn’t turned away 35 of 36 shots faced.

Expecting a repeat performance out of the young netminder is unreasonable.

The Maple Leafs give up the fifth-most chances (63.29) and second-most shots (30.79) on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick.

Their defence is sieve-like, and now they’re catching a Capitals team heating up heading into the holidays.

-> Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Capitals at NorthStar Bets

Washington is averaging 5.4 goals in its last five games, and Carlson has been at the forefront of that production. The defenceman has eight points in that stretch and is 4-1 against this line.

Carlson plays top-pairing minutes and isn’t afraid to shoot the puck. That means he can find the stat sheet with a tip-in or a teammate burying his rebound.

Key stat: Carlson is 9-2 against this line in his last 11 games.

Embed: #121669

Best NHL prop picks

Ovechkin to score (+125): In a perfect world, Carlson slides one over to Ovechkin, and the Great 8 puts it under the bar. We’ve seen it happen over 100 times, so why not tonight?

Ovechkin is the greatest goalscorer ever, and he hasn’t lost his touch after de-throning Wayne Gretzky.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on Ovechkin to score now!

He’s scored seven goals in his last seven games, putting a slow start to the season in the rearview. In that stretch, Ovi leads Washington in scoring chances (19), is second in xG (3.01) and third in shots (17), per Natural Stat Trick.

Toronto is giving up the most goals per game in the Eastern Conference (3.61), so this is a Grade-A matchup for him to stay hot.

Maple Leafs vs. Capitals prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Nov. 28, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Nov. 28: Back James Harden, Mark Williams and AJ Green

James Harden headlines Friday’s NBA Cup prop betting predictions.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Harden has been vintage this season and has a Grade-A matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies tonight. Elsewhere, I’m looking for Mark Williams and AJ Green to capitalize on light rebounding and 3-point totals, respectively.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Nov. 28.

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NBA prop picks Nov. 28

Best bet: Harden over 26.5 points (-110)

Harden looks ageless in season No. 19.

The Beard ranks 11th in scoring (27.9/game) and fifth in assists (8.4/game) while playing a monster 35.6 minutes a night.

His 30.4% usage rate ranks 13th out of NBA players with more than 10 games played.

-> Bet on James Harden vs. the Grizzlies tonight!

Kawhi Leonard is back in the Los Angeles Clippers’ lineup, which should take some scoring pressure off Harden. But the Grizzlies are a dreadful matchup for Kawhi and a perfect one for Harden (stats via Fantasy Pros):

PGs vs. MEM: 28.9 PPG (third-most)
SFs vs. MEM: 21.3 PPG (sixth-fewest)

Jaren Jackson Jr., aka the “Block Panther”, should make life difficult for Leonard. I expect Harden to pick things up and provide a ton of scoring from the perimeter.

Memphis has the sixth-worst 3-point defence in the NBA (37.3%), and Harden is attempting 10.1 threes a night.

Key stat: Harden is 5-1 against this line in his last six games.

Embed: #121665

Best NBA picks

Williams over 8.5 rebounds (-139): This seems like a very attainable line for Williams, who is off to a solid first season with the Phoenix Suns.

The big man is averaging 8.9 rebounds per game, ranking top 20 in offensive and defensive rebounds per 36 minutes, according to Basketball Reference.

Williams is coming off a season-high 16-rebound performance, and corralled 11 in the game before that.

-> Bet on Suns vs. Thunder here!

His Suns are huge road underdogs against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but I honestly expect this game to remain close.

Phoenix has been competitive so far and is a stellar 13-6-0 ATS.

Williams will have a plus matchup against an OKC team which ranks 27th in offensive rebounding rate. The Suns are a top-10 team in defensive rating, so I don’t think the Thunder will be automatic from the floor tonight.

NBA player prop predictions

Green over 2.5 threes (-134): Green is your stereotypical 3-and-D role player. The undrafted guard pretty much exclusively fires from deep — and he’s very good at it.

Green is averaging 3.1 makes on 6.5 attempts per game (48.0%).

He takes 90% of shots from 3-point range, which ranks in the 99th percentile for all wing players, per Cleaning the Glass.

This is Green’s first year starting, meaning he’s seen a serious uptick in minutes. With Giannis Antetokounmpo questionable, I envision a big role for him tonight.

-> Bet on Friday’s 11-game NBA Cup slate

But even if Giannis is in, Green should be involved in the game plan. The Bucks take on a New York Knicks team with the fifth-worst 3-point defence (37.9%) in the NBA.

Green cleared this line against New York in October and is 14-5 against it on the season.

NBA prop picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on Nov. 28, 2025.

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Bears vs. Eagles Week 13 NFL best bet: Fade Chicago’s offence on Black Friday

The Philadelphia Eagles host the Chicago Bears for a matinee on Black Friday.

The pregame narrative: Chicago has won eight of its last 10 games and leads the NFC North heading into this matchup. But the Bears have had a comfortable schedule, and now they’ll test their mettle as 7-point road underdogs against the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Check out my Bears vs. Eagles picks for Nov. 28.

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Bears vs. Eagles best bet

Best Bet: Chicago under 17.5 points (-120)

Are the Bears legit? Time will tell, but I’m not exactly sold on their resume.

Chicago has a -3 point differential despite its 8-3 record, with just one win against a team currently over .500. That came against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, a team with many more questions than answers.

-> Bet on Bears vs. Eagles now at Northstar Bets!

I think Caleb Williams will have a really tough time moving the ball agianst Philadelphia’s defence.

The Eagles are allowing the eighth-fewest points per game (20.5) and have held opponents to a measly 13.3 PPG following their Week 9 bye.

That includes limiting both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to under 10 points.

Philly ranks fourth in defensive EPA per play in that span and eighth on the season, per RBSDM.com.

NFLweather.com also projects a chance of rain and 14 mph winds, which could hamper both offences’ ability to move the ball effectively through the air.

Both teams rank inside the top 10 in run play percentage, so poor passing conditions shouldn’t bother either coaching staff. Plenty of running should theoretically mean more time chewed off the clock and fewer possessions.

Key stat: Philadelphia has held its last three home opponents to 16.6 PPG.

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Best NFL Week 13 prop bets: Back Jaylen Warren, Cade Otton and Tyler Shough

We’re looking for diamonds in the rough for this week’s NFL prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Jaylen Warren and the Pittsburgh Steelers should lean heavily on the run game against the Buffalo Bills. Elsewhere, Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton has a Grade-A matchup and a modest receiving total.

Check out my top NFL Week 13 prop bets, featuring a best bet on New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough.

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NFL Week 13 prop bets

Best bet: Shough over 20.5 completions (-108)

This pick is far from sexy. But I see value in backing a rookie QB on a 2-9 team in a game that should fade into the background during Sunday’s 1 p.m. slate.

The Miami Dolphins have won three straight and are 5.5-point home favourites against New Orleans.

Miami’s offence can put up points, and its defence has been great at stopping the run lately. Check out how that unit ranks over the last five weeks, with stats provided by RBSDM.com:

2nd in EPA per rush (-0.267)
26th in EPA per dropback (+0.167)

Conventional wisdom suggests the Saints will have to throw the ball if they’re down. And they should have better success moving the ball through the air, anyway.

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Add in the fact that Alvin Kamara is likely sidelined, and this all adds up to Kellen Moore drafting a pass-happy game plan.

Last week, Shough was asked to do exactly that and smashed this total.

He completed 30 of 43 passes against the Atlanta Falcons for 243 yards. The game before, he fell just shy of this line (19-for-27, 282 yards, 2 TDS) in a win over the Carolina Panthers.

The second-rounder from Louisville can move the ball, and I expect him to be active this week.

Key stat: New Orleans has the seventh-highest passing play percentage in the NFL (60.03%).

Best NFL picks

Warren over 62.5 rushing yards (-118): If this game were in Orchard Park, I would probably steer clear of backing Warren.

But Buffalo’s offence has some ugly home/road splits and should struggle to go nuclear with two of its starting tackles (Dion Dawkins, questionable and Spencer Brown, out) potentially sidelined.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on NFL Week 13!

That means Pittsburgh won’t have to be overly pass-happy. Not that it tends to do that anyway.

Warren toted the ball 18 times last week for 68 yards with Mason Rudiolph at QB. In the previous two weeks, with Aaron Rodgers under centre, he had 10 carries for 62 yards and 14 carries for 70 yards.

Buffalo’s defence ranks 31st in EPA per rush in the last five weeks and 31st in yards per rush (5.3) on the season.

Otton over 34.5 receiving yards (-114): Otton commands a bunch of targets, and he faces an Arizona Cardinals defence that gets torched by tight ends.

Arizona is allowing the ninth-most yards per game to TEs (58.5)

Its linebackers have allowed a 113.1 passer rating to opposing QBs, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to RotoWire.

Otton has a 16.7% target share, which ranks in the 85th percentile for all tight ends. He is 5-2 against this line in his last seven games, averaging 52.6 yards per contest.

NFL prop bets made at 2:39 p.m. ET on Nov. 27, 2025.

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Best NFL Week 13 prop bets: Back Jaylen Warren, Cade Otton and Tyler Shough

We’re looking for diamonds in the rough for this week’s NFL prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Jaylen Warren and the Pittsburgh Steelers should lean heavily on the run game against the Buffalo Bills. Elsewhere, Tampa Bay Buccaneers tight end Cade Otton has a Grade-A matchup and a modest receiving total.

Check out my top NFL Week 13 prop bets, featuring a best bet on New Orleans Saints quarterback Tyler Shough.

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NFL Week 13 prop bets

Best bet: Shough over 20.5 completions (-114)

This pick is far from sexy. But I see value in backing a rookie QB on a 2-9 team in a game that should fade into the background during Sunday’s 1 p.m. slate.

The Miami Dolphins have won three straight and are 5.5-point home favourites against New Orleans.

Miami’s offence can put up points, and its defence has been great at stopping the run lately. Check out how that unit ranks over the last five weeks, with stats provided by RBSDM.com:

2nd in EPA per rush (-0.267)
26th in EPA per dropback (+0.167)

Conventional wisdom suggests the Saints will have to throw the ball if they’re down. And they should have better success moving the ball through the air, anyway.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets for all NFL Week 13 betting markets

Add in the fact that Alvin Kamara is likely sidelined, and this all adds up to Kellen Moore drafting a pass-happy game plan.

Last week, Shough was asked to do exactly that and smashed this total.

He completed 30 of 43 passes against the Atlanta Falcons for 243 yards. The game before, he fell just shy of this line (19-for-27, 282 yards, 2 TDS) in a win over the Carolina Panthers.

The second-rounder from Louisville can move the ball, and I expect him to be active this week.

Key stat: New Orleans has the seventh-highest passing play percentage in the NFL (60.03%).

Embed: #121621

Best NFL picks

Warren over 62.5 rushing yards (-114): If this game were in Orchard Park, I would probably steer clear of backing Warren.

But Buffalo’s offence has some ugly home/road splits and should struggle to go nuclear with two of its starting tackles (Dion Dawkins, questionable and Spencer Brown, out) potentially sidelined.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on NFL Week 13!

That means Pittsburgh won’t have to be overly pass-happy. Not that it tends to do that anyway.

Warren toted the ball 18 times last week for 68 yards with Mason Rudiolph at QB. In the previous two weeks, with Aaron Rodgers under centre, he had 10 carries for 62 yards and 14 carries for 70 yards.

Buffalo’s defence ranks 31st in EPA per rush in the last five weeks and 31st in yards per rush (5.3) on the season.

Otton over 34.5 receiving yards (-114): Otton commands a bunch of targets, and he faces an Arizona Cardinals defence that gets torched by tight ends.

Arizona is allowing the ninth-most yards per game to TEs (58.5)

Its linebackers have allowed a 113.1 passer rating to opposing QBs, which is the worst mark in the NFL, according to RotoWire.

Otton has a 16.7% target share, which ranks in the 85th percentile for all tight ends. He is 5-2 against this line in his last seven games, averaging 52.6 yards per contest.

NFL prop bets made at 2:39 p.m. ET on Nov. 27, 2025.

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Bears vs. Eagles Week 13 NFL picks: Fade Chicago’s offence, back Barkley on Black Friday

The Philadelphia Eagles host the Chicago Bears for a matinee on Black Friday.

The pregame narrative: Chicago has won eight of its last 10 games and leads the NFC North heading into this matchup. But the Bears have had a comfortable schedule, and now they’ll test their mettle as 7-point road underdogs against the reigning Super Bowl champions.

Check out my Bears vs. Eagles picks for Nov. 28, featuring a prop bet on Saquon Barkley.

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Bears vs. Eagles picks

Best Bet: Chicago under 17.5 points (-114)

Are the Bears legit? Time will tell, but I’m not exactly sold on their resume.

Chicago has a -3 point differential despite its 8-3 record, with just one win against a team currently over .500. That came against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, a team with many more questions than answers.

-> Bet on Bears vs. Eagles now at Northstar Bets!

I think Caleb Williams will have a really tough time moving the ball agianst Philadelphia’s defence.

The Eagles are allowing the eighth-fewest points per game (20.5) and have held opponents to a measly 13.3 PPG following their Week 9 bye.

That includes limiting both the Green Bay Packers and Detroit Lions to under 10 points.

Philly ranks fourth in defensive EPA per play in that span and eighth on the season, per RBSDM.com.

NFLweather.com also projects a chance of rain and 14 mph winds, which could hamper both offences’ ability to move the ball effectively through the air.

Both teams rank inside the top 10 in run play percentage, so poor passing conditions shouldn’t bother either coaching staff. Plenty of running should theoretically mean more time chewed off the clock and fewer possessions.

Key stat: Philadelphia has held its last three home opponents to 16.6 PPG.

Embed: #121629

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Top NFL prop prediction

Barkley over 2.5 receptions (-132): Barkley has had a tough time running between the tackles this year, but he’s still an elite playmaker in space.

Case in point: He only managed 22 yards on 10 carries against the Dallas Cowboys last week while turning seven catches into 52 yards.

Barkley should get his fair share of carries, but I expect him to be active as a pass-catcher again.

On the season, he is 7-3 against this line.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on Barkley and other Week 13 player prop here!

Chicago’s defence ranks 22nd in EPA per play and just gave up six catches for 30 yards to Pittsburgh Steelers RB Kenneth Gainwell. The week before, Aaron Jones also cleared this line.

Bears vs. Eagles picks made at 1:14 p.m. on Nov. 27, 2025.

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Bengals vs. Ravens Week 13 SGP predictions: Bet on Derrick Henry, fade Chase Brown in +360 SGP

Joe Burrow makes his return in the final game of this year’s NFL Thanksgiving slate.

The pregame narrative: Burrow has been sidelined since Week 2 with turf toe, and will have to come out firing. The Cincinnati Bengals (3-8) need to run the table for a chance at the playoffs, and that means winning as 7-point road underdogs against the Baltimore Ravens (6-5).

Check out my Bengals vs. Ravens predictions, featuring running backs Derrick Henry and Chase Brown.

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Bengals vs. Ravens predictions

SGP: Bengals +14.5 | Henry to score | Brown under 54.5 rushing yards (+360)

Bengals +14.5 (-345): I like Cincinnati’s chances of covering the standard spread, despite my two prop picks working against the Bengals.

And thanks to some negative correlation, adding this heavily-teased leg boosts the SGP from +160 to +360. Well worth it, in my opinion.

Baltimore’s offence hasn’t looked great since Lamar Jackson returned from injury. The typically mobile quarterback has rushed for an average of just 18 yards in the last four games.

Don’t get me wrong, the Ravens should score against the Bengals’ horrible defence, but I expect Burrow and Co. to return the favour.

-> Bet on the Thanksgiving Day tripleheader!

Joe Flacco had the Bengals averaging 27.2 PPG, and they covered this spread in all but one of his starts.

Burrow threw for nine TD passes in two games against the Ravens last year. Cincinnati lost both of those contests, but it was by a combined four points.

Expect a typical AFC North thriller.

Embed: #121598

Thanksgiving Day SGP picks

Henry to score (-215): Let’s loop back on Cincinnati’s defence:

32nd in PPG (32.7)
32nd in yards per game (415.8)
32nd in RBSDM.com’s EPA per play (+0.188)
31st in rushing yards per game (156.0)

Baltimore should have plenty of red-zone opportunities. And with Jackson banged up, I expect Henry to get the vast majority of touches.

-> Go to full NFL touchdown scorer markets here.

The 6-foot-2, 250 pound battering ram scored two TDs last week and is sneakily up to the fifth-most rushing TDs this season (nine).

He also scored in both games against the Bengals last year.

Brown under 54.5 rushing yards (-115): Cincinnati’s best route to winning this game is to attack Baltimore’s secondary with Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins.

That’s partially because of how elite the WR tandem is, and partially because of how good Baltimore’s run defence has been since its Week 7 bye.

The Ravens’ defence ranks first in EPA per rush and second in rush success rate since then (five games).

Brown has logged over 200 rushing yards in his last two games, but he was horrible earlier this season and fell under this line in both games versus the Ravens last year.

In those contests he averaged a measly 3.52 YPA.

Bengals vs. Ravens predictions made at 1:35 p.m. on Nov. 26, 2025.

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Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets predictions Nov. 26: Take the over, back Nylander to score

Blue Jackets vs. Maple Leafs predictions

The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a tailspin, and carry their road losing streak into a matchup against the Columbus Blue Jackets.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has lost seven of its last eight games, including three straight on the road. The Blue Jackets have already beaten the Leafs twice this year, and are slight favourites for Round 3. Auston Matthews was spotted at practice this week, but it’s unclear if he’ll play tonight.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets predictions for the game on Nov. 26, featuring a prop bet on

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Editor’s note: Auston Matthews confirmed he will be returning to the lineup tonight.

Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets predictions

Best Bet: Over 6.5 goals (-115)

We’re long past the proverbial panic button stage in Toronto.

The Leafs are dead last in the Eastern Conference and are giving up the second-most goals per game (3.73) in the NHL.

I don’t expect a reversal, at least not in the near future.

Toronto is giving up the fourth most chances (66.3) and shots (30.6) on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick. And it’s practically icing Morgan Rielly plus an AHL blue line right now with Chris Tanev and Brandon Carlo sidelined.

Joseph Woll has done a decent job of mitigating the damage, but still has a 3.27 GAA thanks to the sheer number of shots he faces.

-> Bet on tonight’s Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets matchup now!

Still, I think taking the over on this total is safer than backing Columbus.

We’ve seen the Leafs outscore their defensive issues a few times this year, and Matthews’ possible return could be a much-needed shot in the arm.

But even if the captain remains out, Nylander and John Tavares are capable of driving the bus.

Columbus isn’t much better defensively, either, allowing the seventh-most chances (62) and third-most shots (30.72) on a 60-minute basis.

This should be a shootout.

Key stat: Toronto has gone over this total in 14 of its last 17 games.

Best NHL prop picks

Nylander to score (+125): Nylander is one of the best players on the planet when he feels like putting it all together. I’m hoping tonight is one of those nights.

The Swedish winger has 10 goals and 29 points so far, and is on pace for a fourth-straight 40-goal season.

-> Bet on Nylander to score at NorthStar Bets

He has seven goals in his last 10 games and two in his last three, so we’re backing him while he’s hot.

Columbus, as mentioned, doesn’t have the best defensive track record. Nylander failed to score against the Blue Jackets last Thursday but did have a team-high six shots and led all forwards in ice time (21:50).

I like his chances of finding the score sheet tonight.

Maple Leafs vs. Blue Jackets predictions made at 11:30 a.m. ET Nov. 26, 2025.

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