Avery Perri

Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.

NBA parlay picks and predictions Dec. 3: Back Ball from deep, Cavaliers to win in +341 wager

NBA parlay predictions

Two moneyline picks and a prop bet on Charlotte Hornets guard LaMelo Ball make up this NBA parlay prediction.

The pregame narrative: Ball has a solid matchup to produce from 3-point range against the New York Knicks. Elsewhere, I like the Cleveland Cavaliers to win as huge home favourites and the Los Angeles Clippers to come through as a road underdog.

Check out the full +341 NBA parlay for Dec. 3.

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NBA parlay predictions

Parlay: Ball 3+ threes | Clippers moneyline | Cavaliers moneyline (+341)

Ball 3+ threes (-177): Ball could start a masonry company with all the bricks he’s heaved this year.

The Hornets guard is averaging 2.4 threes on 8.6 attempts per game. That’s the fifth-worst 3-point percentage (28.3) in the NBA, and funnily enough, 0.1% better than his brother, Lonzo.

But LaMelo is still shooting with volume and has historically been much more efficient. I expect a regression to the mean sooner than later.

  • Ball is a career 36.0% three-point shooter.
  • He’s averaged 3.2+ threes in each of the last three seasons.
  • Last year, Ball made 3.8 threes on 11.2 attempts (33.9%).

-> Bet on LaMelo Ball from 3-point range here

The emergence of sharpshooting rookie Kon Knueppel means Ball won’t be attempting 11.2 threes a game anymore, but that shouldn’t matter against the Knicks.

New York has the sixth-worst perimeter defence in the NBA (37.5%). It’s also allowing the sixth-most 3s per game to opposing point guards (3.49), per Fantasy Pros.

Embed: #121841

Other picks

Clippers moneyline (+130): Is backing a team on the moneyline that has lost 12 of its last 14 games risky? Sure. But I like L.A.’s chances against the Atlanta Hawks.

Trae Young remains sidelined, and Kristaps Porzingis is out with an illness.

The tandem of James Harden and Kawhi Leonard should be able to keep pace with what remains of Atlanta’s scrappy starting five (Dyson Daniels, Zaccharie Risacher, Nickeil Alexander-Walker, Jalen Johnson).

Leonard has scored 30-plus in three straight while shooting well above 50.0% from the field, and Harden is having a renaissance season offensively.

-> Don’t miss out — make your own NBA parlay at NorthStar Bets

The Clippers played the Hawks earlier with Leonard and against Porzingis and only lost by three in a rockfight.

Cavaliers moneyline (-455): I’m rolling with a chalky play to close this out. The Cavaliers are 10-point home favourites against the Portland Trail Blazers, who just lost to the Toronto Raptors last night.

Portland is 3-0 ATS and 2-1 SU on no rest so far, mind you, but the wins were against the Luka Doncic-less Los Angeles Lakers and the Giannis Antetokounmpo-less Milwaukee Bucks.

Cleveland is healthy outside of Jarrett Allen and has been solid at home.

The Cavs are 8-4 at Rocket Arena with all four losses coming against teams well above .500 (Celtics, Rockets, Raptors twice).

NBA parlay predictions made at 9:21 a.m. on Dec. 3, 2025.

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MLS Cup 2025 odds and betting preview: Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami favoured to beat Vancouver Whitecaps

MLS Cup odds 2025

Lionel Messi and Inter Miami host the Vancouver Whitecaps in the MLS Cup on Saturday.

The pre-match narrative: The Herons are favoured to lift the trophy after bulldozing through the playoffs with Messi leading the charge. The Whitecaps needed a pair of shootout victories to get here, but they shouldn’t be overlooked with a resurgent Thomas Muller at the helm.

Check out our 2025 MLS Cup odds and betting preview

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MLS Cup odds 2025

MarketOdds
Inter Miami-132
Draw+320
Vancouver Whitecaps+295
Both teams to score — yes-250
Both teams to score — no+170
Over 3.5 goals+105
Under 3.5 goals-134

MLS Cup odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 2, 2025.

Go to full Inter Miami vs. Vancouver betting markets

-> Bet on Inter Miami vs. Vancouver Whitecaps Northstar Bets today!

Inter Miami vs. Vancouver Whitecaps betting preview

The favourites: Inter Miami (-132)

MLS Cups were promised when Messi joined in 2023, and now the Argentine has a chance to deliver.

Inter Miami went 19-8-7 this season, one point back of first place in the Eastern Conference. The club carried that dominance into the playoffs:

  • Round 1: Beat Nashville in best-of-three series (8-3 aggregate score)
  • Conference semis: Beat FC Cincinnati (4-0)
  • Conference finals: Beat New York City FC (5-1)

Messi leads the way with six goals and five assists in five games, while the defence has held opponents to just one goal in the past three games.

-> Don’t miss out — make your MLS Cup bets here!

The underdogs: Vancouver Whitecaps (+295)

Vancouver’s road to the final was a tad rockier.

The Whitecaps beat FC Dallas in penalties to sweep the Round 1 series and then needed penalties again to topple LAFC in the conference semis.

They took down San Diego FC 3-1 in the conference finals, though, and head into this match with just one loss in their last 13 games.

Muller, Germany’s top goalscorer and assist provider in the Champions League, has had an immediate impact.

The forward has eight goals and four assists in 11 starts for Vancouver.

Lionel Messi MLS Cup goal odds

Player to scoreOdds
Lionel Messi (MIA)-175
Luis Suarez (MIA)+135
Tadeo Allende (MIA)+155
Thomas Muller (VAN)+160
Brian White (VAN)+170

-> Bet on Lionel Messi to score!

Messi holds the shortest odds of any player to score after his recent hot streak.

Two of his teammates — Luis Suarez and Tadeo Allende — are next on the board ahead of Muller and fellow Whitecap Brian White.

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MLS Cup 2025 odds and betting preview: Lionel Messi’s Inter Miami favoured to beat Vancouver Whitecaps

MLS Cup odds 2025

Lionel Messi and Inter Miami host the Vancouver Whitecaps in the MLS Cup on Saturday.

The pre-match narrative: The Herons are favoured to lift the trophy after bulldozing through the playoffs with Messi leading the charge. The Whitecaps needed a pair of shootout victories to get here, but they shouldn’t be overlooked with a resurgent Thomas Muller at the helm.

Check out our 2025 MLS Cup odds and betting preview

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MLS Cup odds 2025

MarketOdds
Inter Miami-139
Draw+350
Vancouver Whitecaps+325
Inter Miami to lift trophy-250
Vancouver Whitecaps to lift trophy+195
Both teams to score — yes-265
Both teams to score — no+180
Over 3.5 goals-108
Under 3.5 goals-115

MLS Cup odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 2, 2025.

Go to full Inter Miami vs. Vancouver betting markets

-> Bet on Inter Miami vs. Vancouver Whitecaps Northstar Bets today!

Inter Miami vs. Vancouver Whitecaps betting preview

The favourites: Inter Miami (-250)

MLS Cups were promised when Messi joined in 2023, and now the Argentine has a chance to deliver.

Inter Miami went 19-8-7 this season, one point back of first place in the Eastern Conference. The club carried that dominance into the playoffs:

  • Round 1: Beat Nashville in best-of-three series (8-3 aggregate score)
  • Conference semis: Beat FC Cincinnati (4-0)
  • Conference finals: Beat New York City FC (5-1)

Messi leads the way with six goals and five assists in five games, while the defence has held opponents to just one goal in the past three games.

-> Don’t miss out — make your MLS Cup bets here!

The underdogs: Vancouver Whitecaps (+325)

Vancouver’s road to the final was a tad rockier.

The Whitecaps beat FC Dallas in penalties to sweep the Round 1 series and then needed penalties again to topple LAFC in the conference semis.

They took down San Diego FC 3-1 in the conference finals, though, and head into this match with just one loss in their last 13 games.

Muller, Germany’s top goalscorer and assist provider in the Champions League, has had an immediate impact.

The forward has eight goals and four assists in 11 starts for Vancouver.

Lionel Messi MLS Cup goal odds

Player to scoreOdds
Lionel Messi (MIA)-175
Luis Suarez (MIA)+135
Tadeo Allende (MIA)+155
Thomas Muller (VAN)+160
Brian White (VAN)+170

-> Bet on Lionel Messi to score!

Messi holds the shortest odds of any player to score after his recent hot streak.

Two of his teammates — Luis Suarez and Tadeo Allende — are next on the board ahead of Muller and fellow Whitecap Brian White.

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NHL anytime goal picks Dec. 2: Back Cole Caufield and Kirill Kaprizov on Tuesday

NHL goal picks Dec. 2

Kirill Kaprizov headlines Tuesday’s NHL anytime goal picks.

The pregame narrative: Kaprizov is living up to the hype as the NHL’s highest-paid player. The Russian winger is on a five-game goal streak and has a great chance to add to that total when he plays the Edmonton Oilers.

Check out my NHL goal picks for Dec. 2, featuring a play on Cole Caufield.

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NHL goal picks Dec. 2

Best Bet: Kaprizov to score (+100)

Kaprizov scores in bunches, and right now he’s got a red-hot stick.

The winger has a goal in five straight and in six of his last seven. In that span, he’s unsurprisingly leading the Minnesota Wild in the following categories, per Natural Stat Trick:

  • Goals (7)
  • Shots (34)
  • Chances (44)

He’s also second to Matt Boldy in scoring chances, high-danger chances, and xG.

I think both Kaprizov and Boldy will have a field day tonight. Edmonton is a mediocre 11-10-5 with some serious goaltending issues.

-> Bet on Kaprizov and the Wild tonight!

Stuart Skinner, who is expected to start tonight, ranks outside of the top 30 in GAA (3.00) and SV% (.885). He did log a shutout against the Seattle Kraken on Saturday, but he’d allowed 19 goals on 113 shots in the previous four games (0.831 SV%).

The larger body of work is concerning, and I expect Kaprizov and Co. to run wild.

Key stat: Kaprizov ranks fourth in goals scored (17).

NHL predictions

Caufield to score (+155): Caufield has been touted as having 40-goal upside for a while, but he’s never reached that milestone.

That seems destined to change, barring injury. The Montreal Canadiens winger has tucked 14 goals in 24 games, putting him on pace for a 47-goal campaign.

That would be 10 better than his previous high, which he set last year.

-> Wager on Caufield at NorthStar Bets

Tonight, the Canadiens host an Ottawa Senators team in the same boat as Edmonton: It can’t buy a save.

Linus Ullmark and Leevi Merilainen have identical .874 save percentages. That’s tied for 50th in a 32-team league.

Ullmark is expected to start tonight, and he ranks dead last in goals saved above expected (-9.5), per Money Puck.

NHL goal picks made at 12:52 p.m. ET on Dec. 2, 2025.

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NHL anytime goal picks Dec. 2: Back Cole Caufield and Kirill Kaprizov on Tuesday

NHL goal picks Dec. 2

Kirill Kaprizov headlines Tuesday’s NHL anytime goal picks.

The pregame narrative: Kaprizov is living up to the hype as the NHL’s highest-paid player. The Russian winger is on a five-game goal streak and has a great chance to add to that total when he plays the Edmonton Oilers.

Check out my NHL goal picks for Dec. 2, featuring a play on Cole Caufield.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NHL

NHL goal picks Dec. 2

Best Bet: Kaprizov to score (+123)

Kaprizov scores in bunches, and right now he’s got a red-hot stick.

The winger has a goal in five straight and in six of his last seven. In that span, he’s unsurprisingly leading the Minnesota Wild in the following categories, per Natural Stat Trick:

  • Goals (7)
  • Shots (34)
  • Chances (44)

He’s also second to Matt Boldy in scoring chances, high-danger chances, and xG.

I think both Kaprizov and Boldy will have a field day tonight. Edmonton is a mediocre 11-10-5 with some serious goaltending issues.

-> Bet on Kaprizov and the Wild tonight!

Stuart Skinner, who is expected to start tonight, ranks outside of the top 30 in GAA (3.00) and SV% (.885). He did log a shutout against the Seattle Kraken on Saturday, but he’d allowed 19 goals on 113 shots in the previous four games (0.831 SV%).

The larger body of work is concerning, and I expect Kaprizov and Co. to run wild.

Key stat: Kaprizov ranks fourth in goals scored (17).

Embed: #121792

NHL predictions

Caufield to score (+130): Caufield has been touted as having 40-goal upside for a while, but he’s never reached that milestone.

That seems destined to change, barring injury. The Montreal Canadiens winger has tucked 14 goals in 24 games, putting him on pace for a 47-goal campaign.

That would be 10 better than his previous high, which he set last year.

-> Wager on Caufield at NorthStar Bets

Tonight, the Canadiens host an Ottawa Senators team in the same boat as Edmonton: It can’t buy a save.

Linus Ullmark and Leevi Merilainen have identical .874 save percentages. That’s tied for 50th in a 32-team league.

Ullmark is expected to start tonight, and he ranks dead last in goals saved above expected (-9.5), per Money Puck.

NHL goal picks made at 12:52 p.m. ET on Dec. 2, 2025.

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Maple Leafs vs. Panthers SGP predictions Dec. 2: Back Knies and Bennett in +370 ticket

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers SGP

The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers meet on Tuesday night for the first time this season, with both teams needing a win.

The pregame narrative: Toronto and Florida sit 16th and 15th in the Eastern Conference entering play on Dec. 2. Both teams are only six points out of a playoff spot, though, meaning there’s plenty of time to turn things around. The Panthers are slight home favourites after dropping their last two games.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Panthers SGP predictions on Dec. 2, featuring Matthew Knies and Sam Bennett.

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Maple Leafs vs. Panthers SGP

Parlay: Panthers ML | Bennett 1+ points | Knies 1+ points (+370)

Panthers moneyline (-157): Florida has proven that it can beat Toronto when it matters.

The Panthers eliminated the Leafs from the playoffs last season en route to a second consecutive Stanley Cup title. And two years prior, they beat Toronto in five games.

This isn’t the playoffs, but both teams will be playing with an air of desperation. I trust Florida to get the job done at home even without Matthew Tkachuk and Alexander Barkov.

-> Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Panthers at NorthStar Bets!

Why? Simply put, the Panthers are playing much better hockey.

Corsi rate (an advanced statistic provided by Natural Stat Trick, which measures shot attempt differential) tells the story:

  • Florida: 3rd in Corsi rate (53.53%)
  • Toronto: 31st in Corsi rate (45.64%)

Toronto did beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 7-2 on the weekend … while being outshot 35-23. That was a somewhat lucky result, and it marked the Leafs’ first regulation win in 11 games.

Florida should win comfortably tonight.

Embed: #121780

Other NHL predictions

Bennett to score 1+ points (-113): Bennett is built for the postseason, and has a Conn Smythe trophy to prove it, but he’s on a nice little run right now.

He had just five points through the first 18 games of the season. Since then, he’s logged seven points and is 5-1 against this line.

-> Don’t miss out — make your own SGP here!

Playing Toronto in its current form means every player will have opportunities to generate chances.

Bennett centres Florida’s third line with Carter Verhaeghe and A.J. Greer. That trio has been rolling lately, generating a 59.54% Corsi rate together at 5-on-5.

Knies to score 1+ points (-157): Knies has been a bright spot on the Maple Leafs, logging 26 points in 22 games.

He registered two assists on Saturday and is now 11-3 against this line in his last 14 games. In that span, he has 17 points and four goals.

Knies is riding shotgun with Auston Matthews, who is still producing at a solid clip despite an injury absence.

The captain had five goals and nine points in November (nine games), and is -235 to find the stat sheet tonight.

Knies and Matthews both play on the top line and PP1, making the former a better value play in my eyes.

Maple Leafs vs. Panthers SGP made at 10:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 2, 2025.

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Broncos vs. Commanders Week 13 Sunday Night Football picks: Bet on Sutton to smash modest receiving total

Broncos vs. Commanders picks

The Denver Broncos carry their eight-game win streak into a Sunday Night Football matchup against the Washington Commanders.

The pregame narrative: Denver is coming off a bye to take on a Washington team without Jayden Daniels, who remains sidelined with an elbow injury. The Broncos are 5.5-point road favourites as of Friday afternoon and aim to keep pace for the AFC’s top seed.

Check out my Broncos vs. Commanders picks for Nov. 30, featuring a prop bet on Courtland Sutton.

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Broncos vs. Commanders picks

Best Bet: Sutton over 53.5 receiving yards (-118)

Denver’s offence hasn’t turned heads this season, but this line feels disrespectfully low.

  • Sutton has consistently been a favourite of Bo Nix and logged a 1,000-yard receiving season with the rookie QB at the helm last year.
  • He had 54+ receiving yards in nine of the last 11 games to close out that season (playoffs included).
  • Sutton is on pace for another 1,000-yard campaign, and is 7-4 against this line so far.

The wideout commands 20.2% of the Broncos’ team targets, which ranks in the 82nd percentile for all wide receivers in the NFL, per Rotowire. He also sees 82.5 air yards per game (85th percentile) with a 12.3 average depth of target (77th percentile).

-> Bet on Sutton to clear his receiving milestone at NorthStar Bets

So basically, Sutton is a guy who gets a ton of looks with splash play potential. That’s a recipe for success against this Commanders team.

Washington’s defence ranks dead last in RBSDM.com’s EPA per dropback and is allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to WRs (170.3).

Simply put, this line is too low.

Key stat: Sutton is 15-6 against this line in his last 21 games.

SNF over/under prediction

Over 43.5 points (-110): Denver’s offence was pretty awful heading into the bye week, averaging 16.6 PPG in its final three games. The Broncos went 3-0, so naturally, the under on this total cashed with ease.

But I’m hoping the bye week gave Sean Payton enough time to right the ship. Washington’s defence is sieve-like, allowing 32.5 PPG during its six-game losing streak.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Sunday Night Football!

But the offence looks decent enough with long-time backup Marcus Mariota under centre.

He’s accounted for eight TDs to five interceptions, and actually ranks a respectable 18th in EPA per play among QBs with 150-plus snaps.

Denver’s defence has been a little shakier on the road, and I think Mariota can do enough to keep Washington in this game.

Broncos vs. Commanders picks made at 2:40 p.m. ET Nov. 28, 2025.

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NFL Week 13 TD picks and predictions: Back Kyren Williams and Jaxon Smith-Njigba

NFL Week 13 TD picks

Two star players headline my NFL Week 13 TD picks

The pregame narrative: Three different Los Angeles Rams are minus-money to score on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. I think Kyren Williams holds the best value. Elsewhere, Jaxon Smith-Njigba should continue his Offensive Player of the Year campaign.

Check out my top NFL Week 13 TD picks

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NFL Week 13 TD picks

Best bet: Williams to score (-152)

This price jumped off the page at me. Los Angeles is a 10.5 point favourite, and I can get its RB1 to score at a playable price? Sign me up.

The Rams are a top-tier offence by several metrics:

  • Sixth in PPG (27.8)
  • Sixth in red-zone scoring percentage (65.96)
  • Sixth in RBSDM.com’s EPA per play (+0.125)
  • Ninth in YPG (358.4)

They’ve really found it following their Week 8 bye, too, going 4-0 while averaging 32.75 PPG. In that span, L.A. ranks first in EPA per play.

-> Bet on NFL Sunday prop markets

Williams isn’t a full-blown bell cow anymore with Blake Corum in the picture, but he still gets the lion’s share of carries.

This is a great spot for him to score.

Key stat: Williams has nine TDs on the season and four in his last four games (since L.A.’s bye), going 3-1 against this line.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on NFL Week 13!

NFL Week 13 touchdown bets

Smith-Njigba to score (-118): If you’re trying to contextualize how impressive Smith-Njigba’s season has been, just know he’s getting MVP chatter, sitting seventh in the odds board in a tie with Dak Prescott.

No wideout has ever won the MVP, so he’s probably a better bet to win OPOY at -110. But, I digress:

  • Smith-Njigba is on pace for 2,029 receiving yards, which would be the most ever and the first 2,000+ yard season.
  • He’s had 90+ receiving yards in 10 of 11 games.
  • The triple crown is out of sight, but JSN still ranks a respectable fourth in TDs (seven), five behind Davante Adams.

-> Bet on Smith-Njigba prop markets

The wideout has proven to be matchup proof, so I’d be happy to back him at this price against any team. But the Minnesota Vikings’ defence is middling, mainly because of how often it’s on the field.

This is expected to be a rout, and JSN should contribute. He’s cashed this bet in four straight home games.

NFL TD picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 28, 2025.

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Broncos vs. Commanders Week 13 Sunday Night Football picks: Bet on Sutton to smash modest receiving total

Broncos vs. Commanders picks

The Denver Broncos carry their eight-game win streak into a Sunday Night Football matchup against the Washington Commanders.

The pregame narrative: Denver is coming off a bye to take on a Washington team without Jayden Daniels, who remains sidelined with an elbow injury. The Broncos are 5.5-point road favourites as of Friday afternoon and aim to keep pace for the AFC’s top seed.

Check out my Broncos vs. Commanders picks for Nov. 30, featuring a prop bet on Courtland Sutton.

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL

Broncos vs. Commanders picks

Best Bet: Sutton 50+ receiving yards (-115)

Denver’s offence hasn’t turned heads this season, but this line feels disrespectfully low.

  • Sutton has consistently been a favourite of Bo Nix and logged a 1,000-yard receiving season with the rookie QB at the helm last year.
  • He had 50+ receiving yards in 10 of the last 11 games to close out that season (playoffs included).
  • Sutton is on pace for another 1,000-yard campaign, and is 7-4 against this line so far.

The wideout commands 20.2% of the Broncos’ team targets, which ranks in the 82nd percentile for all wide receivers in the NFL, per Rotowire. He also sees 82.5 air yards per game (85th percentile) with a 12.3 average depth of target (77th percentile).

-> Bet on Sutton to clear his receiving milestone at NorthStar Bets

So basically, Sutton is a guy who gets a ton of looks with splash play potential. That’s a recipe for success against this Commanders team.

Washington’s defence ranks dead last in RBSDM.com’s EPA per dropback and is allowing the second-most receiving yards per game to WRs (170.3).

Simply put, this line is too low.

Key stat: Sutton is 16-5 against this line in his last 21 games.

Embed: #121694

SNF over/under prediction

Over 43 points (-109): Denver’s offence was pretty awful heading into the bye week, averaging 16.6 PPG in its final three games. The Broncos went 3-0, so naturally, the under on this total cashed with ease.

But I’m hoping the bye week gave Sean Payton enough time to right the ship. Washington’s defence is sieve-like, allowing 32.5 PPG during its six-game losing streak.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Sunday Night Football!

But the offence looks decent enough with long-time backup Marcus Mariota under centre.

He’s accounted for eight TDs to five interceptions, and actually ranks a respectable 18th in EPA per play among QBs with 150-plus snaps.

Denver’s defence has been a little shakier on the road, and I think Mariota can do enough to keep Washington in this game.

Broncos vs. Commanders picks made at 2:40 p.m. ET Nov. 28, 2025.

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NFL Week 13 TD picks and predictions: Back Kyren Williams and Jaxon Smith-Njigba

NFL Week 13 TD picks

Two star players headline my NFL Week 13 TD picks

The pregame narrative: Three different Los Angeles Rams are minus-money to score on Sunday against the Carolina Panthers. I think Kyren Williams holds the best value. Elsewhere, Jaxon Smith-Njigba should continue his Offensive Player of the Year campaign.

Check out my top NFL Week 13 TD picks

-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NFL

NFL Week 13 TD picks

Best bet: Williams to score (-137)

This price jumped off the page at me. Los Angeles is a 10.5 point favourite, and I can get its RB1 to score at a playable price? Sign me up.

The Rams are a top-tier offence by several metrics:

  • Sixth in PPG (27.8)
  • Sixth in red-zone scoring percentage (65.96)
  • Sixth in RBSDM.com’s EPA per play (+0.125)
  • Ninth in YPG (358.4)

They’ve really found it following their Week 8 bye, too, going 4-0 while averaging 32.75 PPG. In that span, L.A. ranks first in EPA per play.

-> Bet on NFL Sunday prop markets

Williams isn’t a full-blown bell cow anymore with Blake Corum in the picture, but he still gets the lion’s share of carries.

This is a great spot for him to score.

Key stat: Williams has nine TDs on the season and four in his last four games (since L.A.’s bye), going 3-1 against this line.

Embed: #121691

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on NFL Week 13!

NFL Week 13 touchdown bets

Smith-Njigba to score (-109): If you’re trying to contextualize how impressive Smith-Njigba’s season has been, just know he’s getting MVP chatter, sitting seventh in the odds board in a tie with Dak Prescott.

No wideout has ever won the MVP, so he’s probably a better bet to win OPOY at -110. But, I digress:

  • Smith-Njigba is on pace for 2,029 receiving yards, which would be the most ever and the first 2,000+ yard season.
  • He’s had 90+ receiving yards in 10 of 11 games.
  • The triple crown is out of sight, but JSN still ranks a respectable fourth in TDs (seven), five behind Davante Adams.

-> Bet on Smith-Njigba prop markets

The wideout has proven to be matchup proof, so I’d be happy to back him at this price against any team. But the Minnesota Vikings’ defence is middling, mainly because of how often it’s on the field.

This is expected to be a rout, and JSN should contribute. He’s cashed this bet in four straight home games.

NFL TD picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on Nov. 28, 2025.

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