Avery Perri

Saturday’s Original Six showdown between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Montreal Canadiens has a little more bite than usual to it.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is finally rounding into form after a dreadful start to the season and can catch Montreal in the standings with a win. The Maple Leafs are favoured to win a fourth straight game despite missing goaltender Joseph Woll, who was placed on the injured reserve this morning.

Check out my Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for Dec. 6, featuring Auston Matthews and Ivan Demidov.

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Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prop picks

Best Bet: Demidov to score 1+ points (+104)

Toronto has picked up points in six of its last eight (5-2-1), but Demidov should do damage tonight.

The Leafs have been one of the worst defensive teams this season, allowing the fourth-most chances (62.88) and eighth-most shots (29.1) on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick.

And things haven’t been much better defensively during their recent eight-game heater:

• 30th in chances/60 (66.8)
• 29th in shots/60 (30.78)
• 20th in xGA/60 (3.2)

Expected goals and chances against aren’t worth squat if a team has a goalie performing well, as Toronto did with Woll. But the netminder picked up a lower-body injury on Thursday, meaning Dennis Hildeby, who has a career .896 SV%, will start.

-> Bet on Ivan Demidov against the Maple Leafs

Demidov has been on a nice run, picking up points in seven of his last eight games. That includes two assists in a 5-2 win against Toronto on Nov. 22 (which Woll started).

The rookie also plays on the top power play, so I think these odds are a steal.

Key stat: Demidov is 15-11 against this line.

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Best NHL prop picks

Matthews over 3.5 shots (-124): Matthews has been quietly producing in his last five games since returning from injury:

• 2 goals
• 5 points
• 3+ shots in every game

Toronto’s captain has cleared this mark in back-to-back contests, logging five shots against the Carolina Hurricanes on Thursday.

Carolina allows the fewest chances and shots per game, so that shot total jumps off the page.

-> Bet on Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs at NorthStar Bets

These days, Montreal is in the same boat defensively as Toronto. Since Nov. 11 (the same eight-game segment I referenced with the Leafs earlier), the Canadiens are allowing the most chances and the third-most shots on a 60-minute basis.

The Leafs are at their best when Matthews fires at will, and I think he’ll have plenty of opportunities to do exactly that tonight.

Canadiens vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET Dec. 6, 2025.

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Connor McDavid headlines Thursday’s NHL prop picks.

The pregame narrative: Sometimes you just have to play the hits. McDavid is once again on a torrid pace, sitting top five in points after a monstrous November. Elsewhere, Morgan Geekie has a chance to add to his goal total against a struggling Jordan Binnington.

Check out my NHL prop picks for Dec. 4.

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NHL prop picks

Best bet: McDavid 2+ points (+107)

There are a handful of players in the NHL that bettors can feel comfortable backing at this number, and McDavid is one of them.

The five-time Art Ross Trophy winner really hit his stride last month after a slow start (by his standards):

• October: 14 points in 12 games (4-8 vs. this line)
• November: 22 points in 14 games (8-6 vs. this line)

Edmonton’s offence is heating up again, and now McDavid gets to face a Seattle Kraken team the Oilers just beat on the road, 4-0, last Saturday.

McDavid contributed a goal and an assist in that game while playing a November-low 17:39 minutes.

-> Bet on McDavid and the Oilers tonight

The Kaken are a solid team, but they’ve gotten sketchy goaltending out of Joey Daccord recently.

The netminder posted a sub-.900 SV% in November and ranks a pedestrian 37th in Money Puck’s goals saved above expected.

Edmonton needs to get things rolling, and I expect McDavid to lead the charge at home.

Key stat: McDavid is averaging 1.5 PPG at home this year.

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NHL predictions

Geekie to score (+148): Who would have guessed Geekie would be top-five in scoring heading into December? Not me, that’s for sure.

The Boston Bruins centre has 20 goals so far, good for second entering play on Dec. 4. That’s on pace to shatter his previous career high of 33, which he set last year.

-> See Thursday’s player prop markets at NorthStar Bets

Geekie is probably due for some regression given his sky-high shooting percentage (26.7%), but I don’t think it’ll happen tonight.

The St. Louis Blues are basement dwellers for a few reasons, and Binnington is high on that list.

• 3.20 GAA (45th)
• .878 SV% (48th)

Geekie has played his last three games without Davis Pastrnak, who is injured, and that hasn’t slowed him down. He’s scored three goals in those contests

NHL prop picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 4, 2025.

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The Toronto Maple Leafs’ six-game road trip ends in Raleigh with a Thursday night showdown against the Carolina Hurricanes.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a +170 underdog as both teams search for a third straight win. The Maple Leafs have gotten solid goaltending lately out of Joseph Woll, who is expected to start tonight. At the time of writing, it’s unclear who will be in goal for the Hurricanes.

Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes SGP predictions on Dec. 4, with prop bets on Seth Jarvis and William Nylander.

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Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes SGP

Parlay: Hurricanes 60-min ML | Jarvis 1+ points | Nylander 1+ points (+310)

Hurricanes 60-minute moneyline (-121): I would love to see Brandon Bussi between the pipes for Carolina. The 27-year-old rookie is 7-1-0 with a 2.11 GAA and has cashed this bet in 62.5% of his starts.

But the Hurricanes should still dominate the Leafs even if they start an out-of-form Frederik Anderson.

-> Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes at NorthStar Bets!

You have to scroll down the page on the league-wide standings to see the gap between No. 5 Carolina (16-7-2) and No. 25 Toronto (12-11-3).

And the analytics confirm the eye test.

Corsi is an advanced statistic provided by Natural Stat Trick, which measures shot attempt differential, and these teams are on the complete opposite ends of the spectrum.

• Carolina: 1st in Corsi rate (60.12%)
• Toronto: 31st in Corsi rate (45.76%)

In October, the Hurricanes beat the Leafs, 5-4, while out-shooting them 47-20 and generating 71.77% of chances. The xG in that matchup was 5.09 to 2.23.

Nothing Toronto has done lately shows it is capable of hanging with a team like Carolina.

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Other NHL predictions

Jarvis to score 1+ points (-190): Jarvis was a surprise addition to Canada’s 4 Nations squad last year, and he seems like a lock for Milan — assuming the stadium gets built.

The 23-year-old winger has 15 goals (10th in NHL) and 22 points in 25 games.

That puts him on pace to break his career highs in both categories, and the shocking part is that he only has one power-play point so far.

-> Don’t miss out — make your own SGP here!

Jarvis had at least 19 PP points in each of the last two seasons, so bettors should expect some positive regression there.

But I’m confident he can get the job done at even strength tonight, given Toronto’s defensive deficiencies.

Nylander to score 1+ points (-225): This leg massively boosts the parlay’s payout from +128 to +310 thanks to some negative correlation.

Nylander is on pace for his first 100-point campaign and ranks 10th in points (32) despite missing four games due to injury/illness.

The winger was held off the stat sheet on Tuesday against the Florida Panthers, but he’d logged a point in 17 of 18 games before that. Toronto lost 10 of those contests, including seven in regulation.

Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes SGP made at 9:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 4, 2025.

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An all-Canadian matchup between the Winnipeg Jets and Montreal Canadiens serves as the backbone of today’s NHL parlay picks.

The pregame narrative: Both squads are struggling north of the border, and there’s value to be had in taking the over at Bell Centre. Elsewhere, I’m looking for the Dallas Stars to cover as puck-line underdogs against the New Jersey Devils.

Check out the full +314 NHL parlay predictions Dec. 3, featuring a prop pick on San Jose Sharks forward Will Smith.

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NHL parlay predictions Dec. 3

Parlay: Jets/Canadiens over 6 goals | Stars +1.5 | Smith 1+ point (+314)

Jets/Canadiens over 6 goals (-121): Montreal has lost seven of its last 10 games, and Winnipeg has dropped five of its last six. Someone is going to grab a win tonight, but I don’t want to pick a side.

That’s because both teams are dealing with goaltending issues.

• Montreal played and lost 5-2 last night with Sam Montembeault in net. That means Jakub Dobes is likely to start. He has a 3.22 GAA and .888 SV%.

• Dobes has started in nine straight games with 7+ goals scored.

• Conner Hellebuyck is out for Winnipeg. Backup netminders Eric Comrie and Thomas Milic both have sub-.900 SV%’s and GAA’s above 3.10.

• Winnipeg has at least pushed on this total in six of seven games since Hellebuyck’s injury.

-> Don’t miss out — take the over in Montreal here!

These are two good offensive teams with plenty of star power up and down the lineup. I expect this to turn into a track meet.

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Other picks

Stars +1.5 (-265): This pick feels pretty safe given Dallas’ current form.

The Stars are 10-3 in their last 13 games, covering a +1.5 puckline in each of the losses. In that span, they’re averaging a blistering 4.07 goals per game.

For some added context, the league-leading team in goals/game is the Colorado Avalanche at 4.08. No other team sits above 3.62.

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New Jersey is a good team, but is missing Jack Hughes for the foreseeable future.

The Devils have only won by two-plus goals once in their last 12 games.

Smith 1+ points (-157): Macklin Celebrini is the face of San Jose’s franchise, but Smith is pretty good, too.

The second-year forward is on pace for an 82-point campaign and has been tearing it up alongside Celebrini at 5v5.

Smith has five goals and six points in his last three games and has cashed this bet in six of his last eight.

The Sharks are home underdogs against the Washington Capitals tonight, but I still expect San Jose’s young guns to contribute.

Washington is on a back-to-back and is playing its fourth game in six nights.

NHL parlay predictions made at 11:20 a.m. on Dec. 3, 2025.

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