Staff Writer

Pirates vs. Dodgers SGP picks Aug. 10: Back Skenes and Cruz in +400 ticket

Paul Skenes gets the ball tonight when the Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The pregame narrative: Dominating a matchup like this could go a long way in Skenes’ NL Cy Young bid. L.A. is an offensive juggernaut but I still expect the rookie to clear his strikeout total in what should be a tight game.

Check out the full Pirates vs. Dodgers SGP picks for the Aug. 10 matchup.

Pirates vs. Dodgers SGP picks

Go to full Pirates/Dodgers betting markets.

Parlay: Skenes over 6.5 strikeouts + Dodgers +1.5 + Cruz over 0.5 hits(+420)

Skenes over 6.5 strikeouts (-137): Skenes is coming off one of his worst outings of the season.

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He gave up two earned runs and only struck out four batters in 5.1 IP against the Arizona Diamondbacks. Yeah … if that’s the floor there’s no wonder this kid is third in Cy Young odds.

Anyhow, I can forgive the low strikeout total.

Arizona has the sixth-lowest K rate this season (20.2%) and the third-lowest since the all-star break (18.3%).

Los Angeles, meanwhile, has the fourth highest K rate since the midsummer classic (26.1%).

Skenes has already faced the Dodgers once and he fanned eight in 5.0 IP. That was in the middle of an eight-game stretch where he cleared this total each time out.

His 32.3% K rate ranks in the 94th percentile on Baseball Savant and he’s 11-3 against this line on the year.

Other parlay picks

Dodgers +1.5 (-195): I like L.A. to keep this close even with Skenes doing his thing.

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The Dodgers are 36-21 at home this year, covering this line in 70.17% of those games. They’ll have their own rookie, River Ryan, on the mound and he’s been sensational through three starts.

Ryan has a 1.72 ERA and L.A. is 3-0 when he’s got the ball.

That’s a small sample size but he was also great in the minors this year, sporting a 2.22 ERA with an 11.8 K/9 rate.

Skenes is 6-1 as a starter but Pittsburgh has failed to cover as 1.5-run favourites in five of his last seven starts.

Cruz over 0.5 hits (-190): Cruz is another player Pirates fans should be hyped about.

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The 25-year-old, 6-foot-7 shortstop has the tools to be great even if he is streaky at the plate. Streaky can be a bad thing, but right now, he’s red-hot.

Cruz is batting .500 in August and has six hits in his last two games.

He really struggles to hit left-handed pitching but is batting a solid .288 against righties, which Ryan is.

Picks as of 1:16 p.m. on 08/10/2024.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks props Aug. 10: Bet on Bryce Harper to get after Zac Gallen

The Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks square off in the desert tonight.

The pregame narrative: Aaron Nola gets the ball for Philadelphia opposite a struggling Zac Gallen. I’m fading Gallen’s strikeout total and am backing Bryce Harper to record multiple bases.

Check out my Phillies vs. Diamondbacks props for Aug. 10.

Phillies vs. Diamondbacks props

Go to full Phillies/Diamondbacks betting markets.

Best Bet: Harper over 1.5 bases (+120)

Embed: #91214

Harper has his swagger back.

The two-time MVP was lost coming out of the all-star break, going just 6-for-56 (.107 BA) in his first 13 games following the festivities.

But you can’t keep a player like that down for long.

Harper is batting .367 over his last seven games with three doubles and two home runs. He cleared this prop last night with his 26th home run of the season and went 3-for-4 the game before that.

He should stay hot against a sputtering Gallen.

Arizona’s righty was a Cy Young finalist last year but he’s fallen off lately. Gallen has a 5.35 ERA across his last seven starts and his strikeout numbers are on a sharp decline (more on that later).

Moreover, Harper is 8-for-17 against Gallen with a double and two home runs (.471 batting average, .882 SLG).

Key stat: Harper has a .339 batting average in 65 games against the Diamondbacks in his career, according to StatMuse.

Quick pick

Gallen under 5.5 strikeouts (-139): The Phillies have been getting carved up by righties lately but Gallen is in a bad place, too.

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His 8.6 K/9 rate is the lowest of his career and he’s gone under this number in seven of his last 10 starts.

In that span, the only time Gallen recorded seven-plus strikeouts was against the lowly Oakland Athletics. He barely scraped by this number against the Pittsburgh Pirates and Washington Nationals and has posted four or fewer Ks in five of his last seven.

All of that’s to say he’s not a big swing-and-miss arm right now.

And even when he was, Philadelphia gave Gallen a tough time. The righty has a paltry 19.2% K rate in a huge 120 plate apperance sample size against this lineup.

MLB picks made at 11:11 a.m. ET 08/09/2024.

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Best MLB prop bets Aug. 10: Bet on Seiya Suzuki, Rafael Devers and Zach Neto

I’m backing two hitters to score and one to rake in today’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Zach Neto and Seiya Suzuki are both having solid rookie campaigns and are good bets to cross the plate tonight. Elsewhere, Rafael Devers is primed to hit for power against a struggling righty.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 10.

MLB prop bets

Visit today’s full MLB markets

Best Bet: Neto to score (+100)

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Angels fans haven’t had much to cheer about this year but Neto is one of the bright spots.

The 23-year-old rookie shortstop has been on a roll since the all-star break, batting .318 with a 1.006 OPS. He’s scored 15 runs in that 20-game span, clearing this prop five times in his last six outings.

Neto’s season-long numbers aren’t as impressive … unless you look at his splits against lefties.

In 71 plate appearances, he’s slashing .423/.461/.582. That’s nearly a 200-point increase from his batting average versus righties (.226).

And tonight he gets the worst lefty in baseball, Patrick Corbin.

The 35-year-old is having a miserable, and likely to be final, season. His 5.88 ERA and 1.52 WHIP rank dead last among qualified pitchers while his .307 xBA is in Baseball Savant’s first percentile.

Neto has been thriving out of L.A.’s No. 2 spot and I expect him to score again tonight.

Key stat: Neto has a .500 OBP with three home runs in his last six games.

Quick picks

Suzuki to score (-124): Suzuki is six years Neto’s senior but is a rookie all the same.

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The five-time NBP all-star has been having a nice season with the Chicago Cubs, batting .270 with an .826 OPS. He’s reached base safely in 12 of his last 14 games, scoring 10 runs in that span.

Suzuki’s .378 OBP is the highest of all Cubs since the all-star break (min. 20 plate appearances).

Chris Flexen gets the ball for the White Sox in today’s Crosstown Classic and he’s struggling.

The righty has a 5.53 ERA and just allowed seven hits and six earned runs in 1.2 innings to the Minnesota Twins.

Devers over 1.5 bases (-124): Devers went 0-for-4 last night but I expect him to bounce back in style.

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The third baseman has been on a tear post-all-star break, batting .325 with 14 extra-base hits in 19 games. He’s cleared this mark in seven of his last 10 outings.

Spencer Arrighetti is on the bump for the Houston Astros and that works in our favour. The rookie righty has a 5.33 ERA and 1.52 WHIP over 98.0 innings pitched.

Devers is batting .331 with a 1.112 OPS versus RHP this year.

Picks made at 9:32 a.m. ET on 08/10/2024.

USA vs. France Olympic men’s basketball prop bet: Back LeBron James in the gold medal game

Team USA is a huge favourite over France in the gold-medal game and I expect its most decorated player to shine.

The pregame narrative: LeBron James is on the cusp of a third gold medal. He’s led the United States in assists this tournament and is a good bet to clear his total on Saturday.

Check out our USA vs. France prop bet for the Olympic men’s basketball gold medal game on Aug. 10.

USA vs. France prop bet

Go to full USA/France betting markets

Best Bet: James over 8.5 assists (+110)

LeBron is still the gold standard, even at 39 years old.

The veteran put up a 16-point triple-double to help the United States escape disaster against Serbia in the semifinal. He played a team-high 32 minutes and was instrumental in engineering the team’s 13-point fourth-quarter comeback.

In the quarterfinals, LeBron also cleared this line with nine assists agianst Brazil. And that was in a blowout where he played just 17 minutes.

France has the home crowd at its back and some supremely talented players. I expect this game to be closer than the 17-point spread indicates.

That means the King should be playing closer to 30 minutes than 20 and that means he’ll have plenty of opportunities to dish out helpers to his all-star studded cast.

LeBron is tied with Nikola Jokic for the most assists per game this tournament (8.2). He’s cleared this mark in three of five games and is primed to do that again.

Key stat: LeBron’s 8.3 assists per game was the fourth-best mark in the NBA last year.

Picks made at 3:00 p.m. ET on 08/09/2024.

USA vs. France Olympic men’s basketball props: Back LeBron James in the gold medal game

Team USA is a huge favourite over France in the gold-medal game and I expect its most decorated player to shine.

The pregame narrative: LeBron James is on the cusp of a third gold medal. He’s led the United States in assists this tournament and is a good bet to clear his total on Saturday. I’m also fading Bam Adebayo’s rebound total.

Check out our USA vs. France props for the Olympic men’s basketball gold medal game on Aug. 10.

USA vs. France props

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

USA vs. France props	Odds	Bet now ⬇️
James over 8.5 assists	-112	Add to betslip
Adebayo under 4.5 rebounds	-143	Add to betslip

Go to full USA/France betting markets

Best Bet: James over 8.5 assists (-112)

LeBron is still the gold standard, even at 39 years old.

The veteran put up a 16-point triple-double to help the United States escape disaster against Serbia in the semifinal. He played a team-high 32 minutes and was instrumental in engineering the team’s 13-point fourth-quarter comeback.

In the quarterfinals, LeBron also cleared this line with nine assists agianst Brazil. And that was in a blowout where he played just 17 minutes.

France has the home crowd at its back and some supremely talented players. I expect this game to be closer than the 17-point spread indicates.

That means the King should be playing closer to 30 minutes than 20 and that means he’ll have plenty of opportunities to dish out helpers to his all-star studded cast.

LeBron is tied with Nikola Jokic for the most assists per game this tournament (8.2). He’s cleared this mark in three of five games and is primed to do that again.

Key stat: LeBron’s 8.3 assists per game was the fourth-best mark in the NBA last year.

Other picks

Adebayo under 4.5 rebounds (-143): You’re going to have to pay some juice on this line but I believe this is worth it.

Adebayo is a solid player but there are simply too many cooks in Steve Kerr’s kitchen.

Anthony Davis has been having a fantastic tournament defensively and Joel Embiid just had a monster game to close out Serbia. Getting those two minutes should be Kerr’s priority and that leaves Adebayo as the odd man out.

The Miami Heat centre played 10 minutes in the semifinal and logged just one counting stat (an assist) in his cardio game.

Picks made at 3:00 p.m. ET on 08/09/2024.

Victor Wembanyama Olympics props for France vs. USA: Gold medal men’s basketball odds and best bet

Victor Wembanyama and France are one win away from gold.

The pregame narrative: France pulled off back-to-back upsets over Canada and Germany and now faces its toughest test in the star-studded United States. Wembanyama will need to completely take over to lead his country to victory as 17-point underdogs.

Check out these Victor Wembanyama props for the Aug. 10 gold medal game between France and USA.

Victor Wembanyama props vs. USA

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Wembanyama markets	Betting odds
Over 15.5 points	-118
Under 15.5 points	-118
Over 9.5 rebounds	-125
Under 9.5 rebounds	-112
Over 3.5 assists	-139
Under 3.5 assists	+100
Over 2.5 blocks	+165
Over 3.5 steals/blocks	-118
Over 28.5 points/rebounds/assists	-139
Under 28.5 points/rebounds/assists	+100
To record a double-double — Yes	-155
To record a double-double — No	+110

Go to full France vs. USA betting markets.

Best Wembanyama prop bet

Best bet: Under 15.5 points (-118)

This is a line Wembanyama routinely blew by in his rookie NBA season, but I think it’s far too high against Team USA.

The 7-foot-4 phenom has looked his age in France’s last two matchups.

He scored seven points on 2-of-10 shooting against Canada and followed that up with 11 points on 4-of-17 shooting against Germany.

You could argue that he should go over this line if he keeps the volume up. But the Americans are loaded with show-stopping defenders like Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo.

Wembanyama is going to be the focal point of Steve Kerr’s defensive game plan and I expect him to be double-teamed at all times.

That should open up shots for the rest of France’s team, which makes the over on his 3.5 assist total (-139) another intriguing option.

If other French players are open, so be it. But I would be shocked to see the USA give Wembanyama any easy, uncontested looks.

Key stat: Wembanyama has gone under this total in three straight games.

Pick as of 10:55 a.m. ET on 08/09/2024.

Best MLB prop bets Aug. 9: Back Elly De La Cruz and Alec Bohm

A trio of hitters are in the spotlight for today’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Alec Bohm looks to extend a 10-game hitting streak and Elly De La Cruz faces a struggling righty. Elsewhere, Matt Olson’s bases prop has an enticing price at hitter-friendly Coors Field.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for Aug. 9.

MLB prop bets

Visit today’s full MLB markets

Best Bet: Bohm over 1.5 bases (+105)

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I backed Bohm to clear this total last night and he came through with a fourth-inning double.

Philadelphia’s third baseman has now cashed this bet seven times during his 10-game hitting streak.

He has seven extra-base hits in that span (five doubles, one triple, one HR) and should stay hot against Ryne Nelson and the Arizona Diamondbacks.

Nelson has had a mixed bag of starts lately and owns a 4.65 ERA on the season. His .268 xBA ranks in Baseball Savant’s 19th percentile while his 5.9% walk rate ranks in the 82nd percentile.

The righty doesn’t issue a lot of free passes and also doesn’t strike out many batters (17th percentile K rate).

That means Bohm should have plenty of opportunities to put the ball in play.

Key stat: Bohm is 3-for-4 with two doubles against Nelson.

Quick picks

De La Cruz to score (+107): I also took this bet yesterday and it also cashed with ease. De La Cruz went 3-for-5 (with a walk) and scored two runs.

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Reaching base safely four times is music to my ears and that’s the third time he’s done so in the past four games. De La Cruz has scored seven runs and has a .619 OBP in that span.

With numbers like that, why wouldn’t I run it back?

The 22-year-old phenom gets to go up against Aaron Civale, who has been a mess since joining the Milwaukee Brewers at the trade deadline.

Civale has a 5.40 ERA and 5.70 FIP in five starts with Milwaukee. De La Cruz is slashing .298/.375/.575 vs. RHPs this year.

Olson over 1.5 bases (-103): Olson finished fourth in NL MVP voting last year after blasting an MLB-best 54 home runs with a .604 SLG.

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The 30-year-old’s production has fallen off a cliff this season (18 HR, .414 SLG) but this is a nice spot to back him.

Coors Field profiles as the most hitter-friendly park according to Baseball Savant’s MLB park factors. But you don’t need analytics to figure that out. Denver’s high altitude means the ball goes further.

The Rockies are starting rookie Tanner Gordon (6.75 ERA), who gave up eight hits, five earned runs, and two home runs in his only home start this year.

Picks made at 10:07 a.m. ET on 08/09/2024.

How to bet on the CFL: Point spreads, totals, futures and more

Curious about how to bet on the CFL? We got you covered.

Canadians love the NFL but they also have their own storied football league to wager on. Though it may not be as popular as its American counterpart, the CFL is a big part of the Canadian sporting identity.

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With unique rules — such as the rouge and three downs — and an entire fan base known for wearing watermelons on their heads, you could say the CFL has its quirks.

How to bet on the CFL

The CFL has a strong betting market with an abundance of opportunities for its loyal Canadian followers to get in on the action.

From point spreads to player props, we’ll run you through the most popular ways to bet on the CFL. Let’s start with the moneyline.

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Moneyline

While moneyline (ML) betting remains more popular in lower-scoring sports, such as the NHL and MLB, it still has its place in the CFL.

The concept of the moneyline is simple: pick the team that will win the game. If you’re correct, the bet cashes, regardless of if the game goes to overtime or not.

In a moneyline bet, each team participating will be labelled as either a favourite or an underdog. The favourite will have a minus (-) sign before its odds and the underdog will be denoted by a plus (+) symbol.

To explain moneyline betting more, let’s say the Toronto Argonauts are -230 in a home game against the +220 Hamilton Tiger-Cats.

Being a -230 favourite means that the sportsbook is placing a near-70% implied probability of the Argonauts winning. That directly correlates to the potential return on investment.

-> Want to see current CFL moneyline prices? Check the latest at NorthStar Bets

Here are some examples of how much you would win depending on both the odds and the amount wagered.

-120 odds: You would have to wager $120 to win $100.
-230 odds: You would have to wager $230 to win $100.
+220 odds: You would win $220 on a $100 wager.
+600 odds: You would win $600 on a $100 wager.

While the Argos are viewed as the likely team to win this game, betting on a heavy favourite is not always the best decision because of the low return on investment. You won’t profit as much when betting a favourite on the moneyline as you would an underdog because your chances of winning are greater.

If you believe a heavy underdog can win outright, though, there’s a chance for a large payday.

If you aren’t feeling great about picking either team on the moneyline, then betting on the point spread could be a better option for you. Below we’ll take a look at how to bet on CFL point spreads.

Point spread

Betting the spread is one of the more popular ways to wager on CFL games.

A spread is a number given to determine the amount of points the book believes the favourite will win by. If the team wins by more than the number given, they cover the spread. The underdog can lose but still cover the spread as long as it’s below the assigned number.

Let’s say the Winnipeg Blue Bombers are facing the Saskatchewan Roughriders and are favoured by 6.5 points. That means the Blue Bombers would have to win by seven-plus points to cover. If you were to bet the Roughriders, they could lose by six or fewer or win outright and you would win your bet.

The odds for a spread are generally set at -110 for each side, meaning a $110 bet would win $100 — the extra $10 is known as the “vig”.

This creates an even way to bet on an uneven matchup by giving the underdog a cushion it can lose by.

The spread can change for a variety of reasons. For example, the spread would drastically lower in the Roughriders’ favour if Zach Collaros pulled his groin the day before the game and was unable to play.

The Blue Bombers could drop to around 1.5-point favourites or perhaps even underdogs.

Let’s assume Collaros is playing, however, and the spread stayed at Winnipeg -6.5. If you were confident in a Blue Bombers blowout, then it is possible to choose an alternate spread. You could get different odds that would increase your potential return at a higher number.

An example of this would be betting on the Blue Bombers to cover a 9.5-point spread at +170 odds. You are adding another three points that Winnipeg would need to cover, but are risking that for a larger payout.

A $100 bet would now win you $170.

Now that you understand point spreads, let’s take a look at how to bet on CFL totals.

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Totals

Totals are another common way to wager on the CFL. It requires one to predict the number of total points scored in a contest. Totals are also referred to as the over/under or O/U.

An over/under in the CFL would be set somewhere between 40-50 points which is right around the same as most NFL games.

There are many factors that dictate what the total is set at, including injuries, matchups and weather. This is the Canadian Football League after all, and only one of the nine teams has a stadium with a roof (BC Place in Vancouver, and it’s retractable).

The over/under for a game played during a sunny day in September would surely be higher than one played in late November.

Let’s use a hypothetical November matchup between the Edmonton Elks and Calgary Stampeders as an example and place the O/U at 39.5 points. If 40 points or more are scored during the contest, the over cashes. If the total lands at 39 or lower, the under wins.

It’s a simple concept, and much like in the NFL, bettors often use mental math to determine how many scores will be needed to reach the over once the game begins.

There is no rouge in the NFL, though, and that crazy, unique rule can often dictate the razor-thin margin between the total going over or under. The rouge, also known as a single, is a one-point score.

Just like the spread, bettors can choose alternate totals for either a higher payout or greater probability of winning with altered odds.

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Player Props

Prop betting has exploded throughout the CFL. There are several options to choose from in any given game.

You can bet on how many passing yards Bo Levi Mitchell will have, how many yards Brady Oliveira will rush for or if Justin McInnis will score a touchdown, among others.

To win a prop, the bettor is choosing the over or the under just like in totals betting. It would look something like this:

Bo Levi Mitchell O/U 250.5 passing yards.

https://twitter.com/Ticats/status/1802703642421514746

The odds on props are generally set around -110 per side, but there is more variance in this market compared to the spread and totals.

The odds for touchdown scorers will very drastically. Chad Kelly of the Argonauts is a regular to the end zone thanks to his rushing skills and his odds will typically be lower than most.

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from TD scorers, passing yards and much more

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from TD scorers, passing yards and much more

How to bet on CFL parlays

A parlay involves combining multiple bets into one larger ticket for an increased payout. The ticket has to have two or more bets (known as legs) attached to it. In order to win a parlay, every leg must win. If one leg loses, the entire parlay does.

Parlays can be enticing but also carry greater risk because you need to predict multiple outcomes correctly.

The possible combinations are endless as bettors can combine any individual bet — be it a moneyline, spread or prop — into a parlay.

Let’s take a look at what a hypothetical CFL parlay could look like:

Elks ML (+300)
Lucky Whitehead over 72.5 yards (-120)
Argonauts vs. Tiger-Cats under 42.5 (-110)
Winnipeg Blue Bombers -6.5 (-119)

This bet would have odds of +2472. That means you would win $2472 on a $100 bet if all four of those outcomes were correctly predicted.

That’s a significantly greater payout than if you were to make single-event wagers on any of the above examples. But it’s also much harder to win that type of bet.

-> Build your own CFL same-game parlay when you join NorthStar Bets

Live betting

If you can’t get your bets in before game time, have no fear because live betting is here.

Live betting gives CFL fans the option to bet on the game after it has already started. The odds can shift drastically based on what is occurring.

For example: The Calgary Stampeders, a 5.5-point favourite, go down 7-0 early and become a live underdog. If you’re confident in the Stamps making a comeback, betting them on the moneyline at plus-money odds could be a smart play.

This same logic applies to totals. If a total is set at 44.5 and the first quarter ends with no points scored, the live O/U would drop to around 33.5 points.

If the weather is getting worse and you believe this trend will continue, live betting the under could be advantageous.

While not as robust as pregame options, many of the same betting markets are available in-game.

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How to bet on CFL futures

The futures market in the CFL allows bettors to wager on what will happen months down the line.

By far the most popular futures bet is who will win the Grey Cup. If you believe the Alouettes will defend their Grey Cup, you can place a bet on that.

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This is sometimes labelled as winning outright and each team will be assigned odds based on their probability of winning.

These odds could drastically swing by the time the season begins depending on the draft, injuries, and signings. These odds could then change even further once play is underway based on performance and injuries.

Beyond outright betting, there are other future markets that can be wagered on. These include who will win the Most Outstanding Player award, lead the league in rushing yards or score the most touchdowns.

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Key NBA betting strategies you should know

The NBA is one of the most popular sports to wager on but it can be difficult for newcomers.

You never want to blindly bet on a game, so familiarizing yourself with the best strategies and stats for NBA betting is a good way to dip your toes into the water.

-> New to NBA wagering? Sign up at NorthStar Bets to get the latest odds, insights and betting tools throughout the season.

That’s what we’ll do here to help you avoid making rookie mistakes before placing your next basketball bet.

NBA betting strategies

There are many different markets to choose from when betting on the NBA. In a league that consists of 30 teams and hundreds of players, there’s an endless amount of possible betting combinations any day there’s action.

For an in-depth analysis of how these markets operate, check out our NBA betting guide.

In this piece, we’ll be looking at betting strategies for NBA point spreads, moneylines, totals and props.

-> Before you get started, create your NorthStar Bets account to explore live odds and daily NBA markets.

Moneyline and ATS betting

Ride the hot hand

Bet on teams that are playing well. The NBA is a league of streaks. This can be driven by individual player performance and injuries, but as a whole, teams can go cold or catch fire at any given moment.

Sometimes it takes operators a while to catch up to hot teams, and you can often find advantageous lines as a result.

Take a look at how teams are performing in their last five games — both offensively and defensively —before you make any bets.

Health is wealth

Teams need their star players to compete. When a key player goes down with an injury the wheels can completely fall off any squad.

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Let’s use Luka Doncic as an example. In the 12 games played without Doncic last season, the Dallas Mavericks had a 4-8 record. When Luka did play last year, the Mavs went 46-24.

When an entire offence revolves around a player and that player gets hurt, that team will always face a substantial drop-off in production.

*Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is one of the best young players in the league.* *Photo by Nate Billings/AP.*

Even teams without bonafide superstars rely on healthy rosters for success. Scottie Barnes missed 22 games last year with an injury. Just one injury to a young core player impacted their success and led to a 25-57 record.

These statistics demonstrate why our next point — patience — is so important.

Patience is a virtue

One of the biggest problems plaguing the NBA from a viewership standpoint is load management. Players are often listed as questionable throughout the day and only hours before tip-off is their status revealed.

This can drastically swing betting lines and is an important factor to consider when placing bets.

Be patient and don’t rush to bet on games before you are aware of who will, or won’t, be playing.

While star players missing games can be frustrating for the viewer, it can be used to a bettor’s advantage. Keep a close eye on beat reporters and insiders to see how players are being rested and how injuries are progressing.

Let’s assume the Milwaukee Bucks are 4.5-point favourites at home against the Denver Nuggets. You already like the line to begin with and are leaning toward betting on the Bucks.

If Nikola Jokic is listed as a game-time decision and you see his status change to out, the line of -4.5 becomes far more valuable. Of course, the books will try to rectify this as quickly as possible, but there are windows of opportunity to sneak a bet in.

When the line re-opens it could have the Bucks listed as an 8.5-point favourite or higher, which is still a solid play as the Nuggets would now be without the 2020-21 MVP.

Rest versus rust

This adage is typically reserved for playoff matchups but holds a lot of water when applied to regular-season betting.

When betting on a game, look to see if one of the teams is playing on the second night of a back-to-back. Certain squads are better at this than others.

For example, from 2023-2024 the Los Angeles Lakers were 4-11 ATS on the second leg of a back-to-back. The Boston Celtics, meanwhile, had an impressive 10-4 ATS record on no rest. If L.A. and Boston were playing and both were on a back-to-back, it would have been advantageous to back the Celtics in this position.

Good teams don’t always cover

While it’s important to bet on streaking teams in the NBA, there can be outliers when it comes to covering the spread. Just because a team is winning lots of games doesn’t necessarily mean it will cover the spread.

-> Ready to try spread betting? Join NorthStar Bets and explore live, moving lines daily.

It’s a common mistake to see a team with a good record and assume it will cover. Make sure to take a closer look at ATS stats before placing a wager.

*The Dallas Mavericks have proven to be a good bet in recent seasons. Photo by Tony Gutierrez/AP.*

The San Antonio Spurs were a strong 44-38 ATS from 2023-2024 but had a record of 22-60.

As the famous saying goes: Good teams win, great teams cover. The Dallas Mavericks won 61% of their games over that span, while also covering 59% of the time — that’s a great team.

NBA betting strategies for totals

Push the pace (efficiently)

Two of my favourite stats for betting totals revolve around pace factor and offensive efficiency — the number of possessions a team uses per game and the number of points scored per 100 possessions. More possessions generally lead to more points scored, which is why this stat lends itself so strongly to totals.

Betting on the under isn’t necessarily fun but can certainly be profitable. If you see a team with bad shooting efficiencies and a slow pace, start taking the under.

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Team Totals

When betting totals in the NBA, it’s generally true that both teams must play well for the over to hit. That’s why there are situations where betting a team total is a better play than the game total.

Let’s say the Utah Jazz are playing the Portland Trail Blazers and the over is set at 219.5 points. If the Jazz blowout the Trail Blazers 123-90 then the over is a loser.

Betting on just Utah to cover a team total of 115.5 points would have won.

Some teams are buoys while others are cinderblocks when it comes to totals — try to find out which teams belong to which category. Many sites track a team’s over/under record and that’s something you should pay attention to.

NBA betting strategies for props

Expose uneven matchups in props

Prop betting can be one of the most fun and profitable ways to bet on the NBA. Look for uneven matchups when placing prop bets.

Domantas Sabonis led the NBA in rebounds per game during the 2023-2024 season. The Charlotte Hornets averaged 40.2 rebounds per game that season, the fewest in the league. If Sabonis was lined up against the Hornets, this would be a good opportunity to bet him to go over his rebounding total.

*Domantas Sabonis is one of the best rebounders in the NBA. Photo by Randall Benton/AP.*

If you want to bet a player’s points prop, look for matchups against teams with bottom-tier defensive efficiencies.

The same applies to other prop bets, like 3-pointers made. If a good 3-point shooter is facing a team that struggles to contain the long ball, it presents a good opportunity to bet the over on his prop. The same logic applies to under bets as well.

Don’t be afraid to bet the under if all the evidence points to a tough matchup.

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting triple-doubles to points and more

-> Check out the latest player props every day at NorthStar Bets – from betting triple-doubles to points and more

Player prop ladders

Let’s say there’s a prop you really like. It could be advantageous to layer bets on alternate lines. This is known as a prop ladder. If a player averaged four assists per game but went on a hot streak averaging 9.5 assists over their last three contests, their assist prop could lag behind at an over/under of 4.5.

If you were confident the player was going to continue this streak, start by safely betting the line at over 4.5 (-115) then incrementally lower your stake while taking him to make six, seven, or eight assists. It could look like this:

Over 4.5 assists (-115), over 5.5 assists (+175), over 6.5 assists (+290), over 7.5 assists (+430), over 8.5 assists (+740).

Similarly, players like Jalen Brunson or Jayson Tatum can turn into total flamethrowers. Both usually have their 3-point prop line set at 3.5. If you think they’re going to go off, it could be smart to layer their 3-pointers made prop at over 3.5 (-120), over 4.5 (+190) and over 5.5 (+350).

Layering props can be very effective when injuries come into play. If Julius Randle was out, Brunson has a better chance of hitting more 3-pointers. If Giannis Antetokounmpo is out, there will be more rebounds available for Brook Lopez.

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Key golf betting strategies you should know

Anyone who has played golf will tell you it’s a fickle sport. Betting is no different — anything can happen on any given day.

Without the proper knowledge, it can be tough to get a handle on how to bet on golf. Going into a tournament and betting blindly isn’t the way to go. Simply picking your favourite golfers isn’t the smartest way to wager, either.

Luckily, there are strategies that you can follow to make better golf bets. Let’s take a look.

Golf betting strategies

Every golf event has a number of markets that are available to bet on. Each will be influenced by several factors that include weather, player form and course fit, among other things. Identifying the significance of these factors is important when deciding the best way to place your wager.

We already established our basics of how to bet on golf, now let’s move on to some more intricate strategies and statistics, starting with strokes gained.

What is strokes gained?

Strokes gained is a way of analyzing how a golfer is playing relative to the rest of the field.

A player’s total SG is a combination of five categories: putting, around the green, approach, off the tee, and tee to green. When looking at strokes gained, it’s always framed within a certain data set.

You can analyze strokes gained at a particular course or over a certain period of time, but it’s always relative to the golfer’s competition.

Throughout this piece, we will be referencing SG stats provided by Data Golf.

Ride the hot hand

A player’s swing can come and go at any given moment. Riding the hot hand is imperative in golf betting and is perhaps the most important factor when wagering on any market. A player can be a perfect fit for a course, but if they have the yips it doesn’t matter.

Let’s use Jordan Spieth as an example. The Texas native stormed onto the PGA Tour in 2013, winning 11 tournaments in four years, including four majors. He had 47 top-five finishes in 152 starts (30.92%) and then went ice cold.

Spieth only had one top-five finish in 41 starts (2.43%) during the 2019 and 2020 seasons.

*Jordan Spieth has shown flashes of being really hot but also really cold. Photo by Julio Cortez/AP.*

In 2021, Spieth found his game. He had seven top-five finishes in 28 starts and a victory at the Valero Texas Open (his first win since 2017).

Finding players who are running hot is essential to success. A one-off poor performance can be discarded, but check on how a player has performed over their last 10 events or so.

Each-way betting

Each-way (E/W) betting is a way to pick a player to win outright, while also getting a strong return if they finish in the top five. This is a great way to uncover value when you find a golfer who’s on a hot streak.

An each-way ticket would look like this:

Jordan Spieth E/W 1/4 5 places +2,000.

Those odds tell us that Spieth is +2,000, meaning a $100 outright bet would net $2,000 profit if he won. He only won once in 2021 while recording seven top-five finishes. That’s why each way has you covered. A $100 E/W stake is essentially two $50 bets — one at +2,000 and one at +500 (1/4 of +2,000).

If Spieth won the event, both portions of the E/W bet would cash, netting you $1,250 profit ($1,000 from the outright bet at +2,000 and $250 from the top-five finish at +500). If he came third, you would only win the top-five portion of the bet ($50 at +500 for $250 profit).

Top Finishes

The same concept applies to top finishes. Top 20 is a common betting market that often provides odds with a reasonable ROI even for top-end talent. Sticking with Spieth, he finished in the top 20, from 2017-19, 73.9% of the time. That number dropped to just 26% from 2019-20.

Who’s hot and cold is constantly evolving, so keep an eye on all players to find undervalued golfers who can provide a great return on an E/W or top-20 bet.

There are opportunities to find under-the-radar players sitting around +7,500 odds. For players with longer odds, you don’t necessarily have to bet on an E/W finish. Top 10 and top-20 finishes would still provide great ROIs and are a safer alternative.

Course history

One of the most beautiful things about golf is that every course is different. Each venue presents its own quirks and challenges — it’s the job of the golfer to figure out how to analyze and dissect these nuances. It’s the job of the bettor to find who does that best.

When looking to bet on golf outrights, top finishes, matchups and so on, it’s imperative to pick a golfer that performs well at the course. Tiger Woods won eight times each at Firestone, Torrey Pines and Bay Hill.

Data Golf has a comprehensive course history tool that indicates a player’s SG at any given course and the number of rounds they played.

*Tiger dominates certain courses better than others. Photo by Scott Audette/AP.*

For example, at Bay Hill, Tiger played 40 rounds with an SG of +2.72, meaning every round he was gaining an average of 2.72 strokes on the field.

Another example is Jon Rahm at Torrey Pines, where he boasts an average +2.46 SG in 22 rounds played. He has finished top 10 in his last five starts with one win (2021 U.S. Open).

Knowing Rahm’s course history, he would be a solid choice whenever an event is held there.

Golf betting strategies: Course fit

Course history is important, but sometimes there isn’t a sufficient data set to back up your prediction. Maybe a player you’re keen on betting is a rookie. The course could be a new addition to the tour or perhaps it’s an uncommon major venue.

Search up the course and see how it’s composed. What’s the yardage? How many par-5s are there? Can you drive without care or are there a lot of hazards? These are all important questions to ask. Familiarize yourself with the course and try to pick players you envision succeeding there.

If the course is 7,900 yards long with little danger, someone like Bryson DeChambeau could be a good choice. If the course requires precision accuracy from tee to green, on the other hand, then a pure ball-striker like Collin Morikawa may be a solid decision.

You can use course stats to weed out players as well. Joel Dahmen was 173rd in par-5 scoring in 2021 — if the course has an abundance of par 5s, try and avoid players like him.

Weather and live betting

Golf conditions get crazy sometimes, which allows bettors to capitalize on an opportunity.

Let’s say the course is wet following a rain delay. Drives don’t go as far, approach shots stay closer to where they land, and it’s far easier to putt. These kinds of conditions would favour ball strikers who are extremely accurate.

Look at Hideki Matsuyama’s 2021 Masters win — specifically, his moving day performance.

After a 77-minute weather delay, Matsuyama was two strokes off the lead through 10 holes while being -1 on the day. The course was soaked and he was one of the last groups out there.

*Certain conditions favour certain golfers and that can be important when live betting. Photo by John Minchillo/AP.*

Over the past two years, Matsuyama has the eighth-best SG approach (+0.80) while being 139th in SG putting (-0.33). These conditions favoured his game. He went -6 through the final eight holes and ended the day with a four-shot lead, going on to win the tournament.

When inclement weather disrupts a tournament, try to analyze who this would benefit and see if there is any value on outright winners or end-of-round leaders.

Golf betting strategies: Majors

The PGA season revolves around four main events: The Masters, PGA Championship, U.S. Open and Open Championship. This is also where fans will find the most betting action.

Some players rise to the occasion, while others collapse. Someone who succeeds at regular tour events could develop struggles at majors.

Justin Thomas has picked up nine tour wins since winning the 2017 PGA Championship, but his major record has been less than stellar. He has three top 10s, one top-five finish and three missed cuts. In 2021, his best finish was T-19 at the U.S. Open.

While he may be considered a favourite to win at a major, there isn’t much value due to his recent form at the big events.

Brooks Koepka, on the other hand, is notorious for showing up at majors. He has won four times since 2017 while finishing top five in 53% of those tournaments.

Louis Oosthuizen has four top-five finishes in his last seven major starts (3rd, T2, 2nd, T3). He hasn’t missed a cut since the 2017 Open Championship.

Finding players like Koepka and Oosthuizen, who provide consistent results, is a key golf betting strategy when wagering on majors.