Staff Writer

NFL Week 17 odds and betting lines: Bears battle 49ers in huge SNF matchup

The penultimate week of the NFL’s regular season begins with an underwhelming Christmas Day tripleheader.

The latest: Every Christmas game has at least one team eliminated from the playoffs, and that includes the Patrick Mahomes-less Kansas City Chiefs. Not very festive, is it? The weekend’s action is much better, headlined by a huge game between the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers.

Check out the latest NFL Week 17 odds below.

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NFL Week 17 odds: Betting insights

The Chicago Bears picked up their first signature win in the Ben Johnson era, dispaching the Green Bay Packers in Week 16. Now, they take on a red-hot 49ers team in Santa Clara. Chicago can clinch the NFC North with a win in primetime.

The Christmas slate isn’t fully irrelevant. The Denver Broncos are hunting for the AFC’s top seed and take on KC. Elsewhere, the Detroit Lions are in the midst of a heated battle to get into the playoffs. J.J. McCarthy’s Minnesota Vikings are heating up and would love to play spoiler to their divisional rival.

Two playoff hopefuls in the AFC, the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers, do battle on Saturday. Both teams currently sit in a wild-card spot and are walking on a tight rope with two games to play.

-> NFL Week 17 betting odds

Christmas Day tripleheader

Dallas Cowboys vs. Washington Commanders

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Detroit Lions vs. Minnesota Vikings

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Denver Broncos vs. Kansas City Chiefs

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Saturday, Dec. 27 doubleheader

Houston Texans vs. Los Angeles Chargers

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Green Bay Packers

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NFL Week 17 schedule: Sunday’s 1 p.m. slate

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins

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New England Patriots vs. New York Jets

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Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Cleveland Browns

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Arizona Cardinals vs. Cincinnati Bengals

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New Orleans Saints vs. Tennessee Titans

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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Indianapolis Colts

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Seattle Seahawks vs. Carolina Panthers

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NFL 4 p.m. slate

New York Giants vs. Las Vegas Raiders

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Philadelphia Eagles vs. Buffalo Bills

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SNF & MNF Week 17 games

Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers

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Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 21: Back Wembanyama, Quickley and Durant on Sunday

Victor Wembanyama headlines Sunday’s NBA prop bets.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Wembanyama has been eased in since returning from injury, and is still on a minutes restriction. But he’s capable of doing big damage in small amounts of time, and has a great matchup against the Washington Wizards.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 21, featuring Immanuel Quickley and Kevin Durant.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 21

Best bet: Wembanyama over 19.5 points (-118)

San Antonio is a 15.5-point favourite in this matchup, so the biggest worry is that Wembanyama will play fewer than 15 minutes in a blowout win.

That’s pretty much what happened when these teams met on Thursday, in a game the Spurs won by 25:

17 minutes
15 points
11 field-goal attempts

Wemby fell shy of this number, but has had at least 18 points in each of his other three games since returning from injury. That includes a 26-point outing on Friday night in 21 minutes.

-> See full props for Spurs vs. Wizards!

I could see a world where Wembanyama scores 20 points in just 15 minutes of play against Washington.

The Wizards have the worst defensive rating in the NBA and rank 25th in opposing true shooting percentage.

And it’s not like Wembanyama hasn’t torched them before.

Key stat: Before Thursday, Wembanyama averaged 31.8 PPG in four games against Washington and went 4-0 against this line.

Best NBA picks

Quickley over 15.5 points (-110): The Toronto Raptors are on the second leg of a back-to-back after falling to the Boston Celtics last night.

That shapes up well for Quickley, who has been an assassin on no rest this year (five games played):

19.6 PPG
47.9 FG%
40.0 3PT%

All three of those marks are a notable tick up from his season-long numbers.

Quickley was awful yesterday, going 1-for-12 from the floor against Boston, but I like his chances of bouncing back against the Brooklyn Nets.

The point guard has scored 20-plus points in four of his five meetings against Brooklyn since joining Toronto.

And the Nets have the fourth-worst 3-point defence in the NBA, meaning Quickley can rack up points hastily.

-> Full betting markets for Sunday’s NBA slate

NBA player prop predictions

Durant 25+ points (-125): Durant is still one of the purest bucket-getters in the game.

He’s averaging 25.4 PPG this year, which is his lowest mark since 2016-17, but is shooting a clinical 51.5% from the field and 44.3% from deep.

He’s been even better from 3-point land in December, cashing 2.5 threes per game at a 55.6% clip.

-> Bet on Durant to reach the 25-point milestone!

I expect Durant to lean on his mid-range game tonight, though.

His opponent, the Sacramento Kings, have the second-worst mid-range defence in the NBA, letting opponents shoot 50.3% from that area of the court, per Cleaning the Glass.

KD attempts 61% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 100th percentile among all forwards.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 21, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 21: Back Wembanyama, Quickley and Durant on Sunday

Victor Wembanyama headlines Sunday’s NBA prop bets.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Wembanyama has been eased in since returning from injury, and is still on a minutes restriction. But he’s capable of doing big damage in small amounts of time, and has a great matchup against the Washington Wizards.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 21, featuring Immanuel Quickley and Kevin Durant.

-> Join NorthStar Bets & start betting on the NBA!

NBA prop picks Dec. 21

Best bet: Wembanyama over 18.5 points (-120)

San Antonio is a 15.5-point favourite in this matchup, so the biggest worry is that Wembanyama will play fewer than 15 minutes in a blowout win.

That’s pretty much what happened when these teams met on Thursday, in a game the Spurs won by 25:

17 minutes
15 points
11 field-goal attempts

Wemby fell shy of this number, but has had at least 18 points in each of his other three games since returning from injury. That includes a 26-point outing on Friday night in 21 minutes.

-> See full props for Spurs vs. Wizards!

I could see a world where Wembanyama scores 20 points in just 15 minutes of play against Washington.

The Wizards have the worst defensive rating in the NBA and rank 25th in opposing true shooting percentage.

And it’s not like Wembanyama hasn’t torched them before.

Key stat: Before Thursday, Wembanyama averaged 31.8 PPG in four games against Washington and went 4-0 against this line.

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Best NBA picks

Quickley 15+ points (-129): The Toronto Raptors are on the second leg of a back-to-back after falling to the Boston Celtics last night.

That shapes up well for Quickley, who has been an assassin on no rest this year (five games played):

19.6 PPG
47.9 FG%
40.0 3PT%

All three of those marks are a notable tick up from his season-long numbers.

Quickley was awful yesterday, going 1-for-12 from the floor against Boston, but I like his chances of bouncing back against the Brooklyn Nets.

The point guard has scored 20-plus points in four of his five meetings against Brooklyn since joining Toronto.

And the Nets have the fourth-worst 3-point defence in the NBA, meaning Quickley can rack up points hastily.

-> Full betting markets for Sunday’s NBA slate

NBA player prop predictions

Durant 25+ points (-129): Durant is still one of the purest bucket-getters in the game.

He’s averaging 25.4 PPG this year, which is his lowest mark since 2016-17, but is shooting a clinical 51.5% from the field and 44.3% from deep.

He’s been even better from 3-point land in December, cashing 2.5 threes per game at a 55.6% clip.

-> Bet on Durant to reach the 25-point milestone!

I expect Durant to lean on his mid-range game tonight, though.

His opponent, the Sacramento Kings, have the second-worst mid-range defence in the NBA, letting opponents shoot 50.3% from that area of the court, per Cleaning the Glass.

KD attempts 61% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 100th percentile among all forwards.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 21, 2025.

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49ers vs. Colts MNF Week 16 SGP predictions: Back Taylor and McCaffrey at +295

Two of the game’s best running backs clash on Monday Night Football when Jonathan Taylor’s Indianapolis Colts host Christian McCaffrey’s San Francisco 49ers.

The pregame narrative: Indianapolis’ playoff hopes would be virtually non-existent with a loss, and hinge on 44-year-old Philip Rivers, who is making his second start since coming out of retirement. San Francisco is on a four-game winning streak and is a sizeable road favourite.

Check out my 49ers vs. Colts predictions, featuring a prop on both RBs in this +295 SGP.

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49ers vs. Colts predictions

SGP: 49ers -6.5 | McCaffrey anytime TD | Taylor over 2.5 receptions (+290)

49ers -6.5 (+102): Rivers and the Colts nearly toppled the NFC-best Seattle Seahawks on the road last week, so you would think they have a puncher’s chance of beating the Niners at home.

But I don’t. Rivers was extremely immobile and struggled to put any power or speed behind his throws. It’s sort of what you would expect from a man who was out of the league for five years.

-> Bet on Monday Night Football

The Niners have averaged 31.0 PPG during their four-game winning streak and should be able to put up a boatload of points against the Colts’ defence.

Indianapolis is missing several big names on that side of the ball, especially in the secondary, with Sauce Gardner headlining the inactives.

I just can’t picture Rivers keeping pace with San Francisco.

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Monday Night Football SGP picks

McCaffrey anytime TD (-210): McCaffrey is still as reliable as they come for finding the end zone.

He’s scored 14 times this year

That includes five of his last six games, where he has eight total TDs.

Since joining the 49ers, CMC has 53 touchdowns in 51 regular-season and playoff games.

Kyle Shanahan isn’t shy to give his bell cow looks, as McCaffrey touches the ball 24.6 times per game.

With that type of volume, and Purdy’s ability to move the ball down the field, he’s always in a good spot to find pay dirt.

->Back McCaffrey at NorthStar Bets

Taylor over 2.5 receptions (-175): Shane Steichen, much like Shanahan, will want to feed his star RB however possible.

Taylor will obviously get a ton of touches as a rusher, but should be active as a pass-catching back on Monday.

Rivers didn’t have much time to throw last week, and he isn’t going to scramble. That means check-downs will become available, and many should be directed to JT.

-> Visit NorthStar Bets to see all MNF player props!

Taylor caught three of his four targets last week and has generally been reliable against this number.

He has two-plus catches in 13 of 14 games, going over this mark nine times.

49ers vs. Colts predictions made at 2:36 p.m. ET on Dec. 21, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 20: Fade Ausar Thompson, back Mark Williams, Shaedon Sharpe

I’ve got three NBA prop picks from Saturday’s loaded slate.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Ausar Thompson is worth fading against a sneakily good Charlotte Hornets defence. Elsewhere, look for Mark Williams and Shaedon Sharpe to clear their respective rebounding and point totals.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 20.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 20

Best bet: Thompson under 18.5 PRA (-118)

Hornets? Sneakily good defence? Ok, I should clarify by saying the Hornets have a sneakily good interior defence.

Charlotte gets torched from beyond the arc, allowing 3s at the second-highest rate in the NBA (38.5%).

But Thompson rarely shoots from deep (he’s attempted four 3s in his last 15 games) and will have to navigate past rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner in the paint.

Kalkbrenner earned the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Award with Creighton last year, and now, Charlotte has the eighth-best rim defence in the league, per Cleaning the Glass.

-> See full props for Hornets vs. Pistons!

Thompson isn’t a big scorer to begin with, averaging 11.4 points to go along with 5.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists.

That 19.6 PRA average is right in line with this number and is worth fading in a tough matchup.

Key stat: The Hornets are allowing the seventh-fewest rebounds and 11th-fewest assists per game to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

Best NBA picks

Sharpe over 24.5 points (-118): I wanted to find one Trail Blazer to back in tonight’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings.

Sacramento is one of the league’s worst teams, ranking 27th in defensive rating and 29th in net rating. It has lost eight of its last nine games while allowing 121.1 points a night.

Enter Sharpe, who is running hot and just lit up the Kings for 26 points on Thursday.

-> Full betting markets for Friday’s five-game NBA slate

The fourth-year guard is averaging 24.3 PPG this month and doesn’t rely heavily on the 3-point ball. Sharpe takes 36% of his shots at the rim and another 32% in the mid-range.

Sacramento has the worst rim and mid-range defence in the NBA.

NBA player prop predictions

Williams 10+ rebounds (+110): One of the first things I do when searching for player props is see who the Warriors are playing.

If it’s a team with a solid big man, like Williams, I’ll consider taking the over on his rebounding total.

Golden State has one of the most undersized lineups in the NBA, with just one rotational player standing above 6-foot-8. That’s sophomore 7-foot centre Quinten Post, and he doesn’t do much on the glass.

Post is averaging 5.3 rebounds in just over 25 minutes a night in December.

-> Bet on Williams vs. the Warriors!

Williams is having a rough go lately, but he will be the biggest body whenever he’s on the court, and had a monster 16-rebound game against the Warriors earlier this year.

The big man just played Golden State and had four rebounds in 19 minutes, but I don’t expect a repeat performance on Saturday.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 20, 2025.

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Patriots vs. Ravens Week 16 Sunday Night Football picks: Back New England and Drake Maye

The Baltimore Ravens host the New England Patriots in a must-see Sunday Night Football matchup.

The pregame narrative: It was a no-brainer for the NFL to flex this into primetime. New England is alive for the AFC’s top seed and controls its destiny to win the AFC East. Baltimore, meanwhile, needs to keep pace with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North to potentially backdoor into the playoffs.

Check out my Patriots vs. Ravens picks for Dec. 21, featuring a prop bet on Drake Maye.

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Patriots vs. Ravens picks

Best Bet: Patriots +3.5 (-134)

I’m willing to pay a little more juice to back the Patriots as a field goal dog plus the hook.

Hopefully, it’s not needed, because New England should win this game outright. The only thing standing between the Pats and an 11-game winning streak was blowing a 21-0 lead at home last week.

But that was against Josh Allen, and the reigning MVP completely took over the game.

New England is elite on both sides of the ball, and I don’t think Lamar Jackson is capable of pulling off an Allen-like performance right now.

-> Bet on the Patriots on Sunday Night Football

Jackson is clearly banged up and has posted some very underwhelming numbers since the start of November:

56.4 completion percentage
189.5 passing yards/game
25.5 rushing yards/game
5 total TDs, 6 total turnovers

In that span, he ranks 28th in EPA per play and completion and 29th in completion percentage above expected, per RBDSM.com. Maye ranks eighth and second.

Boiling this game down to a quarterback duel makes enough sense to me, but I don’t trust the Ravens’ defence either.

Baltimore shut out the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but had given up 59 points in the two weeks before (both losses). On the season, it is allowing the 10th-most yards per game.

Key stat: New England has a +106 point differential (best in the AFC). Baltimore has a +15 point differential.

SNF prop prediction

Maye over 242.5 passing yards (-118): Maye’s MVP odds took a hit this week, mainly because of how electric Matthew Stafford was on Thursday Night Football.

I say the Patriots’ signal caller responds with a master class of his own.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Sunday Night Football!

Maye came out of the gates firing against the Buffalo Bills before going dead quiet in the second half. It was a rare sight for the sophomore, given what he’s done all year long:

1st in completion percentage (70.9)
3rd in passer rating (109.1)
5th in passing yards/game (254.8)

Maye had at least 200 passing yards in every game leading up to last week, going 10-3 against this line.

And he had cleared this total in six straight matchups before facing the Bills while averaging 278.0 passing yards.

This is a perfect matchup for him to bounce back.

The Ravens are allowing 245 passing yards per game to opposing QBs (ninth-most in the NFL). Maye is among the league’s best, so I expect him to smash this line.

Patriots vs. Ravens picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET Dec. 20, 2025.

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Patriots vs. Ravens Week 16 Sunday Night Football picks: Back New England and Drake Maye

The Baltimore Ravens host the New England Patriots in a must-see Sunday Night Football matchup.

The pregame narrative: It was a no-brainer for the NFL to flex this into primetime. New England is alive for the AFC’s top seed and controls its destiny to win the AFC East. Baltimore, meanwhile, needs to keep pace with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North to potentially backdoor into the playoffs.

Check out my Patriots vs. Ravens picks for Dec. 21, featuring a prop bet on Drake Maye.

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Patriots vs. Ravens picks

Best Bet: Patriots +3.5 (-136)

I’m willing to pay a little more juice to back the Patriots as a field goal dog plus the hook.

Hopefully, it’s not needed, because New England should win this game outright. The only thing standing between the Pats and an 11-game winning streak was blowing a 21-0 lead at home last week.

But that was against Josh Allen, and the reigning MVP completely took over the game.

New England is elite on both sides of the ball, and I don’t think Lamar Jackson is capable of pulling off an Allen-like performance right now.

-> Bet on the Patriots on Sunday Night Football

Jackson is clearly banged up and has posted some very underwhelming numbers since the start of November:

56.4 completion percentage
189.5 passing yards/game
25.5 rushing yards/game
5 total TDs, 6 total turnovers

In that span, he ranks 28th in EPA per play and completion and 29th in completion percentage above expected, per RBDSM.com. Maye ranks eighth and second.

Boiling this game down to a quarterback duel makes enough sense to me, but I don’t trust the Ravens’ defence either.

Baltimore shut out the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but had given up 59 points in the two weeks before (both losses). On the season, it is allowing the 10th-most yards per game.

Key stat: New England has a +106 point differential (best in the AFC). Baltimore has a +15 point differential.

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SNF prop prediction

Maye over 233.5 passing yards (-113): Maye’s MVP odds took a hit this week, mainly because of how electric Matthew Stafford was on Thursday Night Football.

I say the Patriots’ signal caller responds with a master class of his own.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on Sunday Night Football!

Maye came out of the gates firing against the Buffalo Bills before going dead quiet in the second half. It was a rare sight for the sophomore, given what he’s done all year long:

1st in completion percentage (70.9)
3rd in passer rating (109.1)
5th in passing yards/game (254.8)

Maye had at least 200 passing yards in every game leading up to last week, going 10-3 against this line.

And he had cleared this total in six straight matchups before facing the Bills while averaging 278.0 passing yards.

This is a perfect matchup for him to bounce back.

The Ravens are allowing 245 passing yards per game to opposing QBs (ninth-most in the NFL). Maye is among the league’s best, so I expect him to smash this line.

Patriots vs. Ravens picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET Dec. 20, 2025.

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Best NBA prop picks Dec. 20: Fade Ausar Thompson, back Mark Williams, Shaedon Sharpe

I’ve got three NBA prop picks from Saturday’s loaded slate.

Today’s NBA props narrative: Ausar Thompson is worth fading against a sneakily good Charlotte Hornets defence. Elsewhere, look for Mark Williams and Shaedon Sharpe to clear their respective rebounding and point totals.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec. 20.

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NBA prop picks Dec. 20

Best bet: Thompson under 19.5 PRA (-120)

Hornets? Sneakily good defence? Ok, I should clarify by saying the Hornets have a sneakily good interior defence.

Charlotte gets torched from beyond the arc, allowing 3s at the second-highest rate in the NBA (38.5%).

But Thompson rarely shoots from deep (he’s attempted four 3s in his last 15 games) and will have to navigate past rookie Ryan Kalkbrenner in the paint.

Kalkbrenner earned the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year Award with Creighton last year, and now, Charlotte has the eighth-best rim defence in the league, per Cleaning the Glass.

-> See full props for Hornets vs. Pistons!

Thompson isn’t a big scorer to begin with, averaging 11.4 points to go along with 5.4 rebounds and 2.8 assists.

That 19.6 PRA average is right in line with this number and is worth fading in a tough matchup.

Key stat: The Hornets are allowing the seventh-fewest rebounds and 11th-fewest assists per game to opposing small forwards, per Fantasy Pros.

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Best NBA picks

Sharpe over 24.5 points (-113): I wanted to find one Trail Blazer to back in tonight’s matchup against the Sacramento Kings.

Sacramento is one of the league’s worst teams, ranking 27th in defensive rating and 29th in net rating. It has lost eight of its last nine games while allowing 121.1 points a night.

Enter Sharpe, who is running hot and just lit up the Kings for 26 points on Thursday.

-> Full betting markets for Friday’s five-game NBA slate

The fourth-year guard is averaging 24.3 PPG this month and doesn’t rely heavily on the 3-point ball. Sharpe takes 36% of his shots at the rim and another 32% in the mid-range.

Sacramento has the worst rim and mid-range defence in the NBA.

NBA player prop predictions

Williams 10+ rebounds (-106): One of the first things I do when searching for player props is see who the Warriors are playing.

If it’s a team with a solid big man, like Williams, I’ll consider taking the over on his rebounding total.

Golden State has one of the most undersized lineups in the NBA, with just one rotational player standing above 6-foot-8. That’s sophomore 7-foot centre Quinten Post, and he doesn’t do much on the glass.

Post is averaging 5.3 rebounds in just over 25 minutes a night in December.

-> Bet on Williams vs. the Warriors!

Williams is having a rough go lately, but he will be the biggest body whenever he’s on the court, and had a monster 16-rebound game against the Warriors earlier this year.

The big man just played Golden State and had four rebounds in 19 minutes, but I don’t expect a repeat performance on Saturday.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 20, 2025.

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NFL Week 16 TD picks: Back Josh Allen and Kyle Pitts on Sunday

Kyle Pitts is coming off a monster game and headlines this week’s NFL touchdown picks.

The pregame narrative: Pitts found the end zone three times last week, and draws a great matchup against the Arizona Cardinals during Sunday’s afternoon window. On Saturday, I expect Saquon Barkley to score in a potential playoff-clinching game for the Philadelphia Eagles

Check out my top NFL Week 16 TD picks, featuring a pick on Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen.

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NFL Week 16 TD picks

Best bet: Pitts to score (+140)

Did we just see the “real” Kyle Pitts? Or was last week’s performance against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers just a flash in the pan?

11 catches
166 yards
3 TDs

I’m not sure, but I think it’s fair to say Kirk Cousins has unlocked the tight end.

Pitts only had one 10-plus target game in all of his games with Michael Penix Jr. starting. He now has back-to-back games of 10-plus targets with Cousins at the helm.

-> Go to full Falcons vs. Cardinals prop markets

The former No. 4 overall pick is averaging eight catches and 112.6 yards in his last three contests. He should stay hot in this week’s Grade-A matchup.

Arizona has allowed the eighth-most yards (893) and sixth-most touchdowns (seven) to opposing tight ends this year.

The Cardinals’ linebacking corps is awful in pass coverage, and that should be a matchup that Cousins and Pitts exploit again and again.

Key stat: Quarterbacks have a 108.3 passer rating when targeting Arizona’s tight ends, per RotoWire.

-> Don’t miss out — Bet on NFL Week 16!

NFL Week 16 touchdown bets

Allen to score (-112): Allen’s MVP case is getting louder by the week, and I say he puts together another monster performance on Sunday against the Cleveland Browns.

The QB threw for three TDs last week to upend the New England Patriots, and logged 11 carries for 48 yards on the ground.

He didn’t find the end zone himself, but was really close on a few occasions.

-> Bet on NFL Sunday prop markets

Allen has 12 rushing TDs on the season, and has cashed this bet in six of his last eight games.

Cleveland has the best defensive player in the game, but Myles Garrett can only do so much. The rest of the squad has regressed big time, and the Browns’ defence has been sieve-like in recent weeks.

Barkley to score (-121): This price seems too good to pass up.

Barkley has really struggled from an efficiency standpoint this year, but he still gets a ton of looks and finds the end zone at a respectable rate:

240 carries (fourth)
37 red zone carries (10th)
Eight total TDs (22nd)

The dynamic tailback scored 15 TDs in last year’s OPOY-winning season with the Eagles, so we’ve seen a decent fall off, but Barkley should feast against the Washington Commanders.

Washington allows the seventh-most points (26.8) and second-most yards (382.6) per game and ranks 31st in defensive EPA play.

Barkley scored seven touchdowns in his three regular-season and playoff games against a much better version of this Commanders team last year.

NFL TD picks made at 3 p.m. ET on Dec. 19, 2025.

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College Football Playoff TD picks: Back Le’Veon Moss, Malik Benson in Saturday’s CFP games

The 2025 College Football Playoff is here, and I’ve got two TD picks for Saturday’s games.

The pregame narrative: The action begins at noon, when the Texas A&M Aggies host the Miami Hurricanes. A&M is a slim field-goal favourite and might get a boost in its run game with the return of Le’Veon Moss. Later on, Malik Benson should help the Oregon Ducks run up the score.

Check out my best college football TD picks and predictions for the Dec. 20 CFP games.

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College football TD picks: CFP first round

Best bet: Moss anytime TD (+103)

Texas A&M isn’t a team to overlook.

The Aggies sported a perfect 11-0 record heading into rivalry week, before losing to the then No. 16 Texas Longhorns.

Moss’ presence was missed in that matchup, as TAMU’s RBs combined for just 78 yards on 19 carries.

The senior tailback has been sidelined since early October, but had solid numbers before then (six games played):

64.8 yards/game
5.6 yards/carry
Six touchdowns

-> Back Moss in No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Miami

Moss’ standout game was against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, when he turned 20 carries into 81 yards and three scores. Without him, there’s a good chance it would be Notre Dame, not Texas A&M, suiting up on Saturday.

I expect Mike Elko to utilize Moss heavily if he returns (which seems likely).

Miami struggles to stop the run, ranking a pedestrian 77th in defensive EPA per rush, per GameOnPaper.

Excluding the game where he left with an injury, Moss averaged 13 carries a game and was the team’s go-to goal-line back.

Key stat: Moss has 16 rushing TDs in 15 games since the start of last season.

-> Don’t miss out — bet on this weekend’s college football action!

CFP anytime touchdown prediction

Benson anytime TD (-118): Oregon is a 21-point favourite in Eugene on Saturday night, and it would be a shock to see James Madison hang around in this one.

The Dukes are 12-1 and rank fourth in defensive EPA, but haven’t faced an opponent like this.

Oregon’s only loss this season was to the Big 10 champion Indiana Hoosiers. It has an extremely balanced offence, ranking 23rd in both EPA per pass and rush (net No. 4 in EPA per play).

JMU will be forced to respect Oregon’s run game, which Dan Lanning will want to establish early.

That should open up an opportunity for Benson to break one loose for a longer TD.

The speedy wideout leads the team in receiving yards (526) and yards per catch (17.0). He’s also coming off his best game of the season, turning five catches into 102 yards and a score against the Washington Huskies.

College football TD picks made at 12:01 p.m. on Dec. 19, 2025.

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