Avery Perri

Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 23: Back Derrick White and Tyler Herro, fade Evan Mobley

NBA prop bets

I’ve got three prop bets for Sunday’s all-day NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: First up, back Derrick White to have a game against the New York Knicks. Then, back Tyler Herro against the Milwaukee Bucks and fade Evan Mobley against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 23.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: White over 13.5 points (-120)

White isn’t the first, second or third option on the Celtics but that’s what makes them a championship-calibre team.

Boston has scoring depth littered throughout its lineup and I expect White to provide some pop today.

The shooting guard is averaging 16.1 PPG while shooting 37.8% from his deep. And he’s been on a nice little tear over the last 10 games:

  • 17.6 PPG
  • 41.9 3PT%
  • 15+ points in 8/10 games

One of those games was against the Knicks on Feb. 8 when White scored 17 points while making 4-of-7 threes in a blowout effort (he only played 25 minutes).

Assuming this game is closer, I like White’s chances of racking up points by exploiting the NBA’s worst 3-point defence.

Key stat: White is 2-0 against this line while playing the Knicks this year, shooting a combined 10-for-17 in those games.

Quick picks

Herro over 23.5 points (-118): Herro is poised for a monster night. Jimmy Butler is out which means the sharpshooting guard is officially top dog.

That was the case most of the year to begin with, as Herro has posted career-highs in points (23.9), 3s made (3.7) and 3s attempted (9.7).

He scored 28 points against the Toronto Raptors in his first game since the all-star break and has cleared this line in three of his last six games.

Now, Herro gets a Milwaukee Bucks team which allows the most points per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Mobley under 18.5 points (-120): Mobley is having the best scoring year of his career but this is a prime fade spot.

The Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in basketball, ranking seventh in defensive rating (111.0) and third in opponent field goal percentage (45.1%).

Mobley does a lot of his damage in the mid-range and Memphis has the best mid-range defence in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.

Cleveland’s power forward is efficient but only takes 12.6 shots per game. I can see the Grizzlies making his life difficult.

Picks made at 9:43 a.m. ET on 02/22/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 23: Back Derrick White and Tyler Herro, fade Evan Mobley

NBA prop bets

I’ve got three prop bets for Sunday’s all-day NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: First up, back Derrick White to have a game against the New York Knicks. Then, back Tyler Herro against the Milwaukee Bucks and fade Evan Mobley against the Memphis Grizzlies.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 23.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: White over 14.5 points (-110)

Embed: #110039

White isn’t the first, second or third option on the Celtics but that’s what makes them a championship-calibre team.

Boston has scoring depth littered throughout its lineup and I expect White to provide some pop today.

The shooting guard is averaging 16.1 PPG while shooting 37.8% from his deep. And he’s been on a nice little tear over the last 10 games:

  • 17.6 PPG
  • 41.9 3PT%
  • 15+ points in 8/10 games

One of those games was against the Knicks on Feb. 8 when White scored 17 points while making 4-of-7 threes in a blowout effort (he only played 25 minutes).

Assuming this game is closer, I like White’s chances of racking up points by exploiting the NBA’s worst 3-point defence.

Key stat: White is 2-0 against this line while playing the Knicks this year, shooting a combined 10-for-17 in those games.

Quick picks

Herro over 23.5 points (-118): Herro is poised for a monster night. Jimmy Butler is out which means the sharpshooting guard is officially top dog.

That was the case most of the year to begin with, as Herro has posted career-highs in points (23.9), 3s made (3.7) and 3s attempted (9.7).

He scored 28 points against the Toronto Raptors in his first game since the all-star break and has cleared this line in three of his last six games.

Now, Herro gets a Milwaukee Bucks team which allows the most points per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Mobley under 18.5 points (-115): Mobley is having the best scoring year of his career but this is a prime fade spot.

The Grizzlies are one of the best defensive teams in basketball, ranking seventh in defensive rating (111.0) and third in opponent field goal percentage (45.1%).

Mobley does a lot of his damage in the mid-range and Memphis has the best mid-range defence in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.

Cleveland’s power forward is efficient but only takes 12.6 shots per game. I can see the Grizzlies making his life difficult.

Picks made at 9:43 a.m. ET on 02/22/2025.

NHL parlay picks Feb. 22: Back the Maple Leafs and Jets on Saturday

NHL parlay picks

I’ve got a three-leg, +295 parlay for Saturday as the NHL returns from the 4 Nations Face-Off.

The pregame narrative: I’m trying to capitalize on a goalie mismatch by backing the Winnipeg Jets on the moneyline. Elsewhere, take the Toronto Maple Leafs and Anaheim Ducks as puck line underdogs.

Check out the full NHL parlay picks for Feb. 22.

NHL parlay picks

Parlay: Jets moneyline | Maple Leafs +1.5 | Ducks +1.5 (+295)

Jets moneyline (-138): Connor Hellebuyck and Jordan Binnington just went head-to-head in a thrilling 4 Nations finale between Canada and USA on Thursday.

It surely took a lot out of both netminders, and Hellebuyck is slated to rest on Saturday night, with Eric Comrie confirmed in goal. It’s unclear if Binnington will start or not, but I’m going to lean with no.

And even if he does, his NHL numbers haven’t been great because the team in front of him plays awful defence. Backup netminder Joel Hofer ranks outside of the top 25 in goals allowed average (2.88) and save percentage (.903).

Comrie has a respectable 2.58 GAA and .912 SV% and has won back-to-back starts while allowing just two goals.

Winnipeg entered the break on an eight-game winning streak while St. Louis has lost six of its last eight.

Other picks

Maple Leafs +1.5 (-250): Toronto’s top dogs all played in the 4 Nations but head coach Craig Berube scoffed at the idea that they would be rested on Saturday.

The Maple Leafs own a stellar 19-11-0 home record and get to choose between two of the better goaltenders in the NHL.

It’s unclear if Joseph Woll or Anthony Stolarz will start, but both rank inside the top 20 for goals saved above expected on a 60-minute basis, according to Money Puck.

Carolina is 12-13-3 on the road, failing to cover as -1.5 favourites in 20 of 28 games.

Ducks +1.5 (-154): TD Garden was rocking on Thursday when Team Canada sent American fans home with a loss. I expect more pain to be coming for Bostonians, who are finally seeing their team regress after years of dominance.

The Bruins are a mediocre 27-24-6 with the worst puck line record in the NHL, according to Scores and Odds.

Charlie McAvoy suffered an AC joint sprain against Sweden and will be out for a while, which is massive hit for the struggling team.

Boston lost four of its last six games heading into the break while allowing an average of 3.83 goals per game.

The Ducks aren’t a great team but have the best puck line record in the league (36-18) and have won six of their last seven.

Picks made at 3:20 p.m. on 02/21/2025.

NHL parlay picks Feb. 22: Back the Maple Leafs and Jets on Saturday

NHL parlay picks

I’ve got a three-leg, +320 parlay for Saturday as the NHL returns from the 4 Nations Face-Off.

The pregame narrative: I’m trying to capitalize on a goalie mismatch by backing the Winnipeg Jets on the moneyline. Elsewhere, take the Toronto Maple Leafs and Anaheim Ducks as puck line underdogs.

Check out the full NHL parlay picks for Feb. 22.

NHL parlay picks

Parlay: Jets moneyline | Maple Leafs +1.5 | Ducks +1.5 (+320)

Embed: #109944

Jets moneyline (-130): Connor Hellebuyck and Jordan Binnington just went head-to-head in a thrilling 4 Nations finale between Canada and USA on Thursday.

It surely took a lot out of both netminders, and Hellebuyck is slated to rest on Saturday night, with Eric Comrie confirmed in goal. It’s unclear if Binnington will start or not, but I’m going to lean with no.

And even if he does, his NHL numbers haven’t been great because the team in front of him plays awful defence. Backup netminder Joel Hofer ranks outside of the top 25 in goals allowed average (2.88) and save percentage (.903).

Comrie has a respectable 2.58 GAA and .912 SV% and has won back-to-back starts while allowing just two goals.

Winnipeg entered the break on an eight-game winning streak while St. Louis has lost six of its last eight.

Other picks

Maple Leafs +1.5 (-250): Toronto’s top dogs all played in the 4 Nations but head coach Craig Berube scoffed at the idea that they would be rested on Saturday.

The Maple Leafs own a stellar 19-11-0 home record and get to choose between two of the better goaltenders in the NHL.

It’s unclear if Joseph Woll or Anthony Stolarz will start, but both rank inside the top 20 for goals saved above expected on a 60-minute basis, according to Money Puck.

Carolina is 12-13-3 on the road, failing to cover as -1.5 favourites in 20 of 28 games.

Ducks +1.5 (-148): TD Garden was rocking on Thursday when Team Canada sent American fans home with a loss. I expect more pain to be coming for Bostonians, who are finally seeing their team regress after years of dominance.

The Bruins are a mediocre 27-24-6 with the worst puck line record in the NHL, according to Scores and Odds.

Charlie McAvoy suffered an AC joint sprain against Sweden and will be out for a while, which is massive hit for the struggling team.

Boston lost four of its last six games heading into the break while allowing an average of 3.83 goals per game.

The Ducks aren’t a great team but have the best puck line record in the league (36-18) and have won six of their last seven.

Picks made at 3:20 p.m. on 02/21/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks Feb. 21: Back Jalen Green and Anthony Edwards

Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks

The Houston Rockets host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday as both teams return from the all-star break.

The pregame narrative: Fred VanVleet has been ruled out, which has me eyeing Jalen Green’s assist total. I will also back Anthony Edwards to clear his 3-point line.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks for Feb. 21.

Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks

Best bet: Green over 3.5 assists (-150)

This seems too good to pass up, even with juiced odds.

Green is a scorer first and passer second, but he has dished the ball well when VanVleet is sidelined. Check out his stats in his last eight games without the point guard:

  • 4.3 assists/game
  • 3+ assists seven times
  • 4+ assists six times
  • 5+ assists five times

That’s a super reliable floor to work with, and it gives me confidence he’ll be around this number regardless of the opponent.

The Timberwolves are a stingy defensive team that allows the fifth-fewest assists per game. But Green racked up five helpers against them on Feb. 6 (without VanVleet), and I like his chances of doing so again.

Key stat: Green has cleared this line in four of his last five games against the T-Wolves while averaging 5.2 assists.

Quick pick

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-125): I am a big fan of Edwards and know he’s going to put us in a good position to cash this wager.

  • Edwards is averaging 4.1 threes per game on 10.1 attempts (41.4%).
  • In February, those numbers are up to 4.8 threes per game on 13.3 attempts (36.3%).
  • He’s hit 3+ threes in eight straight games, cashing this bet five times.

On the season, Ant Man is 35-19 against this line (65.8%). That exceeds the 58.5% implied probability of this wager.

He’s played Houston three times this year and cleared this line twice while shooting 3-for-12 from deep in the outlier.

Picks made at 12:18 p.m. ET 02/21/2025.

Heat vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Feb. 21: Bet on Quickley and Herro in +285 wager

Heat vs. Raptors predictions

The Toronto Raptors and Miami Heat return from the all-star break for a Friday night matchup at Scotiabank Arena.

The pregame narrative: Miami entered the break with four straight losses and Toronto is mostly healthy, which has me looking to back the hosts on an alternate spread. Prop bets on Immanuel Quickley and Tyler Herro round out this +285 wager.

Check out my Heat vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 21.

Heat vs. Raptors predictions

Parlay: Raptors +5.5 | Quickley 6+ assists | Herro 3+ threes (+285)

Embed: #109932

Raptors +5.5 (-162): It’s been a rarity for Toronto to field a fully-healthy lineup this season and that won’t change on Friday with Jakob Poeltl sidelined.

Still, a starting five of Quickley, Gradey Dick, RJ Barrett, Scottie Barnes and Jonathan Mogbo is competitive.

The Heat have a Jimmy Butler-sized hole in their starting lineup that Andrew Wiggins can’t fill.

They’re 0-4 since trading Butler away and have lost six of their last eight. In that span, they’ve only picked up wins against the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers and Victor Wembanyama-less San Antonio Spurs.

Toronto is an impressive 16-8-1 ATS as a home underdog this year and I like its chances of winning this game outright.

SGP legs

Quickley 6+ assists (-112): Quickley should be in full facilitation mode this evening.

The Heat allow the fourth-fewest points and fifth-most assists to point guards, according to Fantasy Pros. Barnes and Barrett are both capable scorers and I expect IQ to dish them the rock.

He hasn’t played a ton this season but is averaging 5.3 assists this month, clearing this mark in two of six games while landing on five assists twice.

In a plus matchup, he should have an above-average outing.

Herro 3+ threes (-286): Adding Herro to hit three 3s is a nice leg for any Heat SGP. The sharpshooting guard’s best scoring year has been buoyed by an elite perimeter game.

  • Herro is averaging 3.7 threes on 9.7 attempts per night (both career-highs).
  • He’s hit 3+ threes in 37/51 starts (72.5%).

Herro has hit four-plus 3s in all three games against the Raptors this season while shooting a combined 48.2% from beyond the arc.

Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET 02/21/2025

Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks Feb. 21: Back Jalen Green and Anthony Edwards

Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks

The Houston Rockets host the Minnesota Timberwolves on Friday as both teams return from the all-star break.

The pregame narrative: Fred VanVleet has been ruled out, which has me eyeing Jalen Green‘s assist total. I will also back Anthony Edwards to clear his 3-point line even with unsavoury odds.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks for Feb. 21.

Timberwolves vs. Rockets prop picks

Best bet: Green over 3.5 assists (-118)

Embed: #109928

This seems too good to pass up.

Green is a scorer first and passer second, but he has dished the ball well when VanVleet is sidelined. Check out his stats in his last eight games without the point guard:

  • 4.3 assists/game
  • 3+ assists seven times
  • 4+ assists six times
  • 5+ assists five times

That’s a super reliable floor to work with, and it gives me confidence he’ll be around this number regardless of the opponent.

The Timberwolves are a stingy defensive team that allows the fifth-fewest assists per game. But Green racked up five helpers against them on Feb. 6 (without VanVleet), and I like his chances of doing so again.

Key stat: Green has cleared this line in four of his last five games against the T-Wolves while averaging 5.2 assists.

Quick pick

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-141): Am I in love with these odds? No. But I am a big fan of Edwards and know he’s going to put us in a good position to cash this wager.

  • Edwards is averaging 4.1 threes per game on 10.1 attempts (41.4%).
  • In February, those numbers are up to 4.8 threes per game on 13.3 attempts (36.3%).
  • He’s hit 3+ threes in eight straight games, cashing this bet five times.

On the season, Ant Man is 35-19 against this line (65.8%). That exceeds the 58.5% implied probability of this wager.

He’s played Houston three times this year and cleared this line twice while shooting 3-for-12 from deep in the outlier.

Picks made at 12:18 p.m. ET 02/21/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 21: Back Zion Williamson, fade De’Aaron Fox on Friday

NBA prop bets

Zion Williamson headlines Friday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: I expect the big man to feast as the New Orleans Pelicans take on an injury-riddled Dallas Mavericks squad. Elsewhere, fade De’Aaron Fox and back Darius Garland.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 21.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Williamson over 31.5 points and rebounds (-118)

This is shaping up to be a monster night for Zion.

The Mavericks, who are missing Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford, are slated to start 6-foot-6 P.J. Washington at centre, according to RotoWire.

It’s also worth noting that New Orleans’ standout rookie centre, Yves Missi, is questionable with a knee injury.

Williamson is averaging 24.4 points and 7.4 rebounds, which puts him right in line with this total.

He should be able to feast on the glass and score at will against a team missing all of its size and defensive prowess.

The Mavericks have struggled to contain power forwards to begin with this season, and are ceding the ninth-most points and 11th-most rebounds per game to that position, according to Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Williamson has cleared this line in seven of his last nine games while averaging 27.1 points and 7.2 rebounds.

Quick picks

Fox under 24.5 points (-118): Fox is a solid scorer and will have to take the reins in San Antonio with Victor Wembanyama out for the season. With that said, I believe this is a prime fade spot.

  • Fox is 3-12 against this line in his last 15 games (2-4 since joining SAS).
  • He narrowly cleared this mark with 26 points last night but has struggled on back-to-backs this season, averaging 22.2 points on 41.9% shooting (nine-game sample).

The Spurs are playing a Detroit Pistons squad allowing the ninth-fewest PPG to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros. All signs are pointing to a dud.

Garland over 2.5 threes (-143): You know who’s not fazed by back-to-backs? Garland. Cleveland’s point guard is averaging 24.6 PPG while shooting 50.9% on zero rest this season (nine-game sample).

He’s cleared this mark in four of his last five back-to-backs and 11 of his last 15 games overall.

Garland was a member of this year’s 3-point contest and is about as dangerous as it gets from deep, canning 3.0 threes per game on 42.9% shooting.

And tonight, he gets to play a New York Knicks team with the worst 3-point defence in the NBA.

Picks made at 9:59 a.m. ET on 02/21/2025.

Best NBA prop bets Feb. 21: Back Zion Williamson, fade De’Aaron Fox on Friday

NBA prop bets

Zion Williamson headlines Friday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: I expect the big man to feast as the New Orleans Pelicans take on an injury-riddled Dallas Mavericks squad. Elsewhere, fade De’Aaron Fox and back Darius Garland.

Check out how I’m betting on them in the best NBA prop bets for Feb. 21.

Best NBA prop bets

Best bet: Williamson over 36.5 PRA (-113)

Embed: #109923

This is shaping up to be a monster night for Zion.

The Mavericks, who are missing Anthony Davis, Dereck Lively and Daniel Gafford, are slated to start 6-foot-6 P.J. Washington at centre, according to RotoWire.

It’s also worth noting that New Orleans’ standout rookie centre, Yves Missi, is questionable with a knee injury.

Williamson is averaging 24.4 points, 7.4 rebounds and 5.0 assists (36.8 PRA), which puts him right in line with this total.

He should be able to feast on the glass and score at will against a team missing all of its size and defensive prowess.

The Mavericks have struggled to contain power forwards to begin with this season, and are ceding the ninth-most points and 11th-most rebounds per game to that position, according to Fantasy Pros.

Key stat: Williamson has cleared this line in eight of his last 10 games while averaging 38.8 PRA.

Quick picks

Fox under 25.5 points (-125): Fox is a solid scorer and will have to take the reins in San Antonio with Victor Wembanyama out for the season. With that said, I believe this is a prime fade spot.

  • Fox is 3-12 against this line in his last 15 games (2-4 since joining SAS).
  • He narrowly cleared this mark with 26 points last night but has struggled on back-to-backs this season, averaging 22.2 points on 41.9% shooting (nine-game sample).

The Spurs are playing a Detroit Pistons squad allowing the ninth-fewest PPG to opposing shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros. All signs are pointing to a dud.

Garland over 2.5 threes (-136): You know who’s not fazed by back-to-backs? Garland. Cleveland’s point guard is averaging 24.6 PPG while shooting 50.9% on zero rest this season (nine-game sample).

He’s cleared this mark in four of his last five back-to-backs and 11 of his last 15 games overall.

Garland was a member of this year’s 3-point contest and is about as dangerous as it gets from deep, canning 3.0 threes per game on 42.9% shooting.

And tonight, he gets to play a New York Knicks team with the worst 3-point defence in the NBA.

Picks made at 9:59 a.m. ET on 02/21/2025.

Clippers vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions Feb. 20: Back L.A. to cover, Leonard on the glass at +310

Clippers vs. Bucks predictions

I’m bullish on the Los Angeles Clippers when they play the Bucks in Milwaukee on Thursday night.

The pregame narrative: Milwaukee entered the all-star break on a skid and I expect more trouble against a healthy L.A. squad. Back the Clippers on an alternate spread and take James Harden and Kawhi Leonard to be productive.

Check out my Clippers vs. Bucks same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 20.

Clippers vs. Bucks predictions

Parlay: Clippers +3.5 | Harden over 20.5 points | Leonard over 5.5 rebounds (+310)

Embed: #109878

Clippers +3.5 (-200): Giannis Antetokounmpo (calf) and Damian Lillard (hamstring) are both listed as questionable on the NBA’s 10:30 a.m. ET injury report.

If they’re out, great, but I love this number even if both superstars suit up.

The Bucks are 3-6 in their last nine games, and 0-3 in their last three with both Giannis and Lillard playing, losing each matchup by double digits.

To put it bluntly, Doc Rivers hasn’t got the most out of this group. The Bucks are 47-44 since he took over as head coach and are a miserable 24-29-1 ATS this year (10th-worst mark in the NBA).

L.A. is 32-22 ATS, has won three straight games, and handed the Bucks (with Giannis and Lillard) a 10-point loss on Jan. 25.

SGP legs

Harden over 20.5 points (-152): Harden was the driving force behind that win, scoring a game-high 40 points on 50.0% shooting — I’m asking for just over half of that production tonight.

The Bucks have gotten torched by point guards since acquiring Lillard last season, giving up the most points to that position on a per-game basis (26.9), according to Fantasy Pros.

Harden has cleared this mark in seven of his last 10 games while attempting 16.9 shots a night.

This is a smash play in my book.

Leonard over 5.5 rebounds (-118): Leonard seemingly has his minutes restriction lifted and played north of 30 minutes in three straight games heading into the all-star break.

He fell short of this number in each contest, but that doesn’t worry me.

  • Leonard has 5+ rebounds in seven of his last eight games, clearing this mark four times.
  • The Bucks allow the third-most rebounds per game (8.24) to small forwards.

Leonard is right around this total on a nightly basis. In a plus matchup, I expect the board man to get paid.

Picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 02/20/2025.