Avery Perri

The last two No. 1 overall picks, Cooper Flagg and Victor Wembanyama, headline Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Flagg has done it all for the Dallas Mavericks lately and has an outsized opportunity with Anthony Davis sidelined. Wembanyama is still on a minutes restriction, but is catching the Boston Celtics on a back-to-back.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 10, featuring a prediction on Jaime Jaquez Jr.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 10

Best bet: Flagg over 36.5 PRA (-109)

Flagg is playing point guard for the Dallas Mavericks with Kyrie Irving on the mend, and that’s put him in a great position to stuff the stat sheet.

Look at what the 6-foot-9 unicorn has done in his last 12 games (35.9 PRA):

• 22.6 points/game
• 7.2 rebounds/game
• 6.1 assists/game

In that span, he’s gone 6-6 against this line, logging 30+ PRA eight times.

Flagg is coming off a huge game against the Utah Jazz: 26 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists. I’m bullish he can back that up tonight.

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With Davis sidelined, Flagg’s shot volume and rebounding opportunities should increase.

The rookie has been particularly consistent on the glass, logging six-plus boards in nine straight and at least seven in every game since the calendar turned.

Also, Chicago plays at the third-fastest pace in the NBA (102.88 possessions per 48 minutes) and is 25th in defensive rating, per NBA.com.

More possessions mean more opportunities to log counting stats.

Key stat: Flagg is averaging 25.4 points, 6.8 rebounds, and 4.8 assists in five games without Davis (37.0 PRA).

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Best NBA picks

Wembanyam over 8.5 rebounds (–150): Do I like playing props with -150 juice? No. But I think it’s worth it tonight.

Wembanyama hasn’t played 30-plus minutes since Nov. 14, and it hasn’t stopped him from being a menace on the glass.

Case in point, he just logged 14 rebounds in 26 minutes against the Los Angeles Lakers.

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At 7-foot-4, he is literally a cut above everyone else on the court as a rebounder.

Wembanyama is 6-3 against this line in his last nine games, recording double-digit boards in each instance it cashed.

Boston is playing its third game in four nights, and that should give a slight edge to the French phenom.

NBA player prop predictions

Jaquez over 11.5 points (-124): Jaquez is officially listed as questionable, but I love his chances of clearing this total should he play tonight.

The third-year forward was on a tear over his last 13 games before exiting after 10 minutes against the Minnesota Timberwolves with an ankle injury on Nov. 3:

• 17.9 PPG
• 55.6 FG%
• 10+ points in every game

In that span, he went 10-3 against this line.

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It’s worth noting that Tyler Herro was out for most of those contests and is now back in the Miami Heat’s lineup.

But Jaquez came off the bench in all but one of his last 13 games, and has a great matchup tonight.

The Indian Pacers have the third-worst mid-range defence in the NBA (48.8%), per Cleaning the Glass.

Jaquez takes 45% of his shots from that area of hte court, which ranks in the 92nd percentile among all forwards.

NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 10, 2026.

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The Toronto Raptors carry a three-game winning streak into Friday’s road matchup against the Boston Celtics.

The pregame narrative: Toronto is a 9.5-point underdog with Scottie Barnes (knee) listed as doubtful. Brandon Ingram (thumb) is also questionable, which should open up opportunities for RJ Barrett and Collin Murray-Boyles to produce.

Check out my Raptors vs. Celtics picks for Jan. 9 at TD Garden, featuring prop predictions on Barrett and Murray-Boyles.

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Raptors vs. Celtics picks

Best bet: Barrett 20+ points (-125)

Barrett has five games under his belt following a lengthy injury absence. He started off slowly but has some encouraging numbers in his last three:

• 32.3 MPG
• 24.7 PPG
• 17+ points in each game
• 17+ FGA in each game

The Torontonian will have to step it up for his hometown team with Barnes likely out. And Ingram’s injury is to his shooting thumb, so even if he suits up, it’s unclear what we’ll get from a scoring perspective.

I feel great about this number if Barrett plays north of 30 minutes and takes around 20 shots.

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Boston allows the eighth-fewest PPG to opposing small forwards, per Rotowire, but this is about opportunity.

Barrett played a game against the Celtics last year without Barnes and erupted for a 25-point triple-double.

Key stat: Barrett is 4-0 against this milestone vs. Boston since joining Toronto. He shot 51.3% from the field in those contests.

Raptors prop predictions

Murray-Boyles over 6.5 rebounds (-150): This is a lot of juice to pay, but I’ll happily do it tonight. Murray-Boyles, the No. 9 overall pick out of South Carolina, has been humming on the glass lately:

• 9.6 rebounds/game over his last 6
• 12+ rebounds three times

The rookie is playing big minutes during that stretch (at least 25 in every game) and should see another uptick in playing time tonight with Barnes and Jakob Poeltl sidelined.

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Barnes is averaging 8.4 rebounds this season and 9.8 during that same six-game stretch mentioned earlier.

Boston is a solid rebounding team. But again, this is more about opportunities than anything else. If Ingram can’t play, this should be a smash play.

Raptors vs. Celtics picks made at 1:46 p.m. ET on Jan. 9, 2026.

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The Los Angeles Lakers and Milwaukee Bucks close out Friday’s NBA slate with a banger.

The pregame narrative: Anytime Luka Doncic and Giannis Antetokounmpo go toe-to-toe is must-see TV. Los Angeles has won four of its last six, and is a 3-point home favourite with LeBron James questionable. Milwaukee sports a clean bill of health heading into this contest.

Check out my Bucks vs. Lakers SGP predictions for Jan. 9, featuring Doncic and AJ Green.

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Bucks vs. Lakers SGP

Parlay: Lakers +4.5 | Doncic over 8.5 assists | Green 3+ threes (+300)

Lakers +4.5 (-335): I’m teasing Los Angeles 7.5 points into underdog status. LeBron’s dubious availability has a little to do with that, but it’s always nice to get some cushion in an SGP.

The Lakers got walloped by the Spurs in San Antonio on Wednesday, but have generally performed well against bottom-feeding teams.

L.A. has won 13 of its last 14 games against non-play-in teams, including a 119-95 beatdown of the Bucks in Milwaukee back in November.

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Austin Reaves (who remains out) was playing in that game, but LeBron wasn’t. It was also on the road, where the Lakers tend to struggle. At home, they sport a solid 10-6 record.

Giannis is a game-changer and has been on a heater since returning from injury. But his supporting cast is awful, and I can’t see the Bucks running away with this one.

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NBA SGP legs

Doncic over 8.5 assists (-139): Doncic can do it all, ranking fourth in assists (8.8/game) on top of leading the league in scoring (33.7 points/game).

With eyes-in-the-back-of-his-head vision, the Slovenian is liable to clear this mark on a nightly basis.

Reaves’ absence means opposing defences can really key in on stopping Doncic, which should mean more wide-open shots for his teammates.

Doncic has gone 3-3 against this line since Reaves went down, landing on exactly eight assists twice and seven assists once. That’s a solid floor to work with.

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He should over-index tonight against a Bucks team allowing the seventh-most assists per game to opposing point guards, per Fantasy Pros.

Green 3+ threes (-129): Green would be a money bench piece for any title contender, with above-average defence and lights-out 3-point shooting.

Milwaukee’s poor roster construction has him starting — and out of position as a small forward — but that’s fine by me.

The scrappy swingman is averaging 2.9 threes per game on 42.9% shooting. Playing just under 30 minutes a night, he should get enough run to capitalize on a plus matchup.

Los Angeles allows the 13th-most 3s per game at the eighth-highest rate.

Green has cleared this line in three of his last four games and drained five triples against L.A. earlier this year.

Bucks vs. Lakers SGP predictions made at 12:30 p.m. on Jan. 9, 2026.

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The Golden State Warriors are massive home favourites on Friday night against the lowly Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: Golden State is laying 14.5 points at Chase Center against a Sacramento team sporting an awful 3-16 road record. The Kings have lost six straight games ahead of this contest, five of which came by double-digits.

Check out my Kings vs. Warriors SGP predictions for Jan. 9, featuring Steph Curry and Dennis Schroder.

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Kings vs. Warriors SGP

Parlay: Warriors -10.5 | Curry 5+ threes | Schroder 10+ points (+260)

Warriors -10.5 (-190): This is a big-time mismatch. Golden State isn’t among the league’s elite, but it is still a great team at home:

• 12-5 record
• +5.5 net rating (10th)
• 111.6 defensive rating (8th)

And Sacramento doesn’t just lose on the road, it loses big.

• 7-12 ATS
• -12.7 average point differential
• -12.0 net rating (28th)

The Kings are missing arguably their best player (more on that later), and have lost by double-digits in five straight road games.

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This should be an intra-state beatdown.

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NBA SGP legs

Curry 5+ threes (-132): Curry is in Year 17, and bettors still have to pay juice on him to hit five-plus 3s. That’s a testament to his longevity, and tonight, I think it’s well worth the squeeze.

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• Curry is averaging the most makes (4.7) and attempts (12.1) from deep this year, netting out at a tidy 39.1% clip.

• He’s cleared this mark in three of his last five games, landing on four 3s in one of the outliers.

Sacramento ranks a middling 14th in 3-point defence, but is missing its best perimeter defender, Keegan Murray, tonight.

Murray, who hurt his ankle on Sunday, is averaging 1.6 blocks and 1.2 steals per game and is routinely tasked with stopping the opposition’s top scorer.

Steph should have free rein to let it fly tonight.

Schroder 10+ points (-150): The Kings will need a tertiary scorer besides DeMar DeRozan and Zach LaVine with Murray out.

Russell Westbrook is in a big shooting slump right now, and I think Schroder can fill that role.

He has reached this milestone in 12 of 16 games without Murray, including each of his last six. When the Kings played the Warriors earlier this year sans Murray, Schroder scored 18 points and took 17 shots.

This is also a solid matchup for the German.

Schroder takes 46% of his shots from the mid-range, which ranks in the 80th percentile among all guards, per Cleaning the Glass.

Golden State ranks 22nd in mid-range defence.

Kings vs. Warriors SGP predictions made at 10:15 a.m. on Jan. 9, 2026.

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The Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz close out Thursday’s four-game NBA slate in Salt Lake City.

The pregame narrative: Utah played last night and nearly knocked off the defending champion Oklahoma City Thunder, losing 129-125 in overtime. The Jazz are 5-point home underdogs playing on the second leg of a back-to-back.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Jazz SGP predictions for Jan. 8, featuring Cooper Flagg and Lauri Markkanen.

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Mavericks vs. Jazz predictions

Parlay: Mavericks moneyline | Flagg over 6.5 rebounds | Markkanen under 2.5 threes (+295)

Mavericks moneyline (-190): Utah threw the kitchen sink at OKC and fell short, and now I expect an exhausted Jazz squad to get hammered by the defensively-minded Mavericks.

• Dallas ranks 10th in defensive rating while holding opponents to the seventh-lowest field-goal percentage in the NBA (45.9%).

• The Mavs have won eight of their last 12 games that Anthony Davis has started and finished, allowing an average of 115.3 PPG.

• That includes wins in their last two (vs. Rockets, at Kings), while allowing 202 total points.

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I think Dallas has the makings of a dangerous team next year with Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively II in the mix. The Mavs have been competitive without those two, and I trust Flagg and Davis to carry the load tonight.

Utah has lost five straight and nine of its last 11.

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NBA SGP legs

Flagg over 6.5 rebounds (-150): Speaking of Flagg, the 2025 No. 1 pick has been very reliable as a rebounder in his last 10 games:

• 6.9 rebounds per game
• 6+ rebounds nine times
• 7+ rebounds five times

Night in and night out, he’s threatening to clear this number.

The Jazz are missing big man Walker Kessler and might be without Jusuf Nurkic (toe), who’s questionable after playing 33 minutes yesterday.

-> Back Rookie of the Year frontrunner Cooper Flagg on Thursday

Again, fatigue should play a role in Utah’s tenacity on the glass. This is a good spot for Flagg to keep rolling.

Markkanen under 2.5 threes (-136): The biggest reason why Dallas can cause fits defensively is its perimeter defence.

The Mavericks allow the second-fewest 3s per game (11.7) while holding opponents to the lowest 3-point percentage (33.2%).

Markkanen is a big 3-point shooter, averaging 8.0 attempts per game. He’s cleared this number in consecutive games, but is 5-10 against it in his last 15 contests.

That includes a matchup against Dallas, where he went 1-for-6 from deep.

Mavericks vs. Jazz SGP made at 3:45 p.m. ET on Jan. 8, 2026.

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Two guards, Keyonte George and Tyler Herro, are the focus of Thursday’s NBA prop bets.

Tonight’s NBA props narrative: I’m looking to stay hot after going 3-for-3 on yesterday’s picks. George is having a career year, but he’s a strong fade candidate against the Dallas Mavericks. Herro is making his second start since returning from an 11-game injury absence, and there’s value on his 3s prop.

Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 8, featuring a fade on Pascal Siakam.

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NBA prop picks Jan. 8

Best bet: George under 25.5 points (-118)

Entering play on Jan. 8, George sits third on the Most Improved Player odds board at 12-to-1, behind Jalen Johnson (+200) and Deni Avdija (-177).

It’s pretty easy to see why, looking at his scoring numbers:

• 2024-25 (67 games): 16.8 PPG, 39.1 FG%, 34.3 3PT%
• 2025-26 (35 games): 24.3 PPG, 45.0 FG%, 37.2 3PT%

But his per-game average sits below this total, he’s on a cold streak, and this is a tough matchup.

-> Bet on George prop markets for tonight’s Mavericks vs. Jazz matchup!

George is a mid-range assassin, taking 48% of his shots from that area of the court. That ranks in the 97th percentile among all guards, per Cleaning the Glass.

Dallas owns the third-best mid-range defence in the NBA, holding opponents to a 41.6 FG% in that area of the court. It also has the best 3-point defence to boot (33.2%).

On the second leg of a back-to-back, I expect the third-year guard to struggle.

Key stat: George has gone under this total in three straight games to start the new year while shooting 40.9% from the floor.

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NBA player prop predictions

Herro 3+ threes (+130): Herro returned to action on Tuesday, scoring 17 points in 29 minutes while going 1-for-4 from deep.

He’s only played seven games this year, averaging 2.3 threes on 39.0% shooting. That isn’t much to go off, but we all know the type of scorer Herro can be if he gets rolling.

The guard averaged 3.0+ threes in three straight seasons before this one, averaging 3.3 threes on 8.7 attempts last year (37.5%).

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Given his 29 minutes last night, we shouldn’t have to worry about a big minutes restriction.

It’s only a matter of time before this market will be priced odds-on, perhaps at unplayable numbers.

The Chicago Bulls, tonight’s opponent, allow the eighth-most 3s per game (13.9) at the 10th-highest rate (36.7%).

Siakam under 36.5 PRA (-115): I wanted to fade Siakam as a rebounder tonight against the Charlotte Hornets, but the under on his 7.5 total carries far too much juice (-155).

Charlotte is great on the glass, ranking second in rebounding rate.

The Hornets’ standout rookie centre, Ryan Kalkbrenner, remains sidelined. But they’re still second in rebounding rate since his injury on Dec. 20.

They’ve also held three straight opponents under 100 points, beating the Thunder in Oklahoma City on Jan. 5.

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All that said, taking the under on his PRA line seems fine to me. Siakam has gone under this mark in three of his last five games, landing on exactly 37 PRA in one of the outliers.

He also went under this mark against the Hornets earlier this year, totalling 33 PRA in 37 minutes.

NBA prop picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Jan. 8, 2026.

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