I’m featuring two Americans in my picks for the third round of the Australian Open.
The pregame narrative: Gael Monfils has been on a tear and can go toe-for-toe against Taylor Fritz. Elsewhere, I’m backing Ben Shelton to cover his game spread against Lorenzo Musetti.
Check out my top Australian Open picks for the third round.
Australian Open picks
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Best Bet: Taylor Fritz/Gael Monfils over 3.5 sets (-120)
Both competitors head into this clash in tremendous form.
So far, Fritz has delivered back-to-back straight sets victories, winning 36 of 44 sets played. However, the No. 4-ranked American didn’t come out unscathed.
Fritz hyper-extended his knee in his recent match against Cristian Garin, which could be a problem against an experienced pro like Monfils.
The 38-year-old Frenchman has found a new gear in 2025. He’s won his last seven matches on the hard court while taking home the ASB Classic title in Auckland.
A double fault on match point prevented Monfils from defeating Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in straight sets in the opening round.
What caught my eye is Monfils’ ability to handle pressure. In the last 52 weeks, he’s ranked 17th in under-pressure rating and 20th in break points converted (40.5%).
Coming off an easy straight-set victory, I say Monfils can at least steal a set and make life difficult for Fritz.
Key stat: In 2024, Monfils ranked 34th in service games won (82.4%).
Other picks
Shelton -2.5 games (-112): Shelton has thrived on the outdoor hard courts in Melbourne.
The young American reached the quarterfinal in his debut in 2023, following that with a third-round appearance last year.
His powerful serve — which had the fourth-highest rating on tour in 2024 — is one of his standout weapons and has translated well on this playing surface.
The same can’t be said for Musetti, whose style fits better on clay. The No. 15-ranked Italian is just 60-67 (47.2%) on outdoor hard courts, compared to 54-35 on clay.
Musetti performed well in his straight-sets victory over Denis Shapovalov (7-6, 7-6, 6-2) but was the beneficiary of 15 double faults.
He’s typically solid on the baseline but is susceptible against opponents with massive groundstrokes.
This has the makings of a back-and-forth battle, but I expect Shelton to power through to the next round.
Australian Open picks made at 11:15 a.m. on 01/16/25
