Felix Auger-Aliassime looks for another ATP final berth in a semifinal match against Andrey Rublev at Doha on Friday.
The pregame narrative: The Canadian is playing the best tennis of his young career right now and I’m predicting another ATP final appearance. My best bet is on the underdog Auger-Aliassime to win.
Check out my Auger-Aliassime vs. Rublev Qatar Open best bet and the odds for the semifinal match on Feb. 21.
Auger-Aliassime vs. Rublev best bet
Go to full Auger-Aliassime vs. Rublev betting markets.
| Betting markets | Odds |
| Auger-Aliassime to win | +118 |
| Rublev to win | -148 |
| Over 24.5 total games | +102 |
| Under 24.5 total games | -130 |
Tennis odds as of 9:30 p.m. ET on 02/20/2025.
Best Bet: Auger-Aliassime to win (+132)
It would be easy to look at the head-to-head history between these competitors and come to the conclusion that Rublev is in for a cakewalk. But let’s take a deeper dive.
The Russian tennis star holds a 5-1 record over the Canadian but the matches were fairly close.
According to matchstat.com, Auger-Aliassime has won 93 games compared to Rublev’s 99.
That’s unusual for such a lopsided H2H record but it paints the picture of how closely contested these two have been in the past.
I also have to harp on how successful FAA’s 2025 campaign has started. He’s already won two ATP titles (Adelaide and Montpellier) and is 12-3 overall.
Compare that to Rublev’s zero ATP title wins and 7-4 2025 record and it’s obvious the Canadian is playing better tennis right now.
The Russian has yet to reach a final this year, either.
Rublev’s best performance was in Montpellier where he lost in straight sets in the semis to Aleksandar Kovacevic. FAA beat Kovacevic in the final (6-2, 6-7, 7-6).
Auger-Aliassime is the better-rested player, too, which gives him an extra advantage.
According to Tennis Tonic, he’s played just over three hours at the Qatar Open, while Rublev is a tad shy of five hours of on-court time.
Key stat: FAA is 3-0 against top 10 opponents (No. 4 Taylor Fritz, No. 9 Tommy Paul, No. 6 Daniil Medvedev) to start 2025. Rublev currently ranks 10th in the world.
Picks made at 3:54 p.m. ET on 02/20/2025.
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.