Two teams with high playoff hopes meet in the Bronx on Friday, as the New York Yankees host the Houston Astros.
The pregame narrative: New York snapped a five-game losing skid on Wednesday and is now in a pick’em against Houston. Tonight marks the first of six matchups between the Yankees and Astros over the next month — with a potential series lining up in October.
Check out my Astros vs. Yankees prop picks for Aug. 8, featuring Aaron Judge and Jesus Sanchez.
Astros vs. Yankees prop picks
Best bet: Judge over 1.5 total bases (+106)
If I can get Judge over 1.5 bases at plus-money odds, I’m going to have a difficult time turning that down.
Judge has a multitude of MLB-best numbers, including:
- .339 BA
- .702 SLG
- 213 OPS+
- 269 total bases
His .711 xSLG, as measured by Baseball Savant, is somehow even higher than his league-high SLG.
Judge is also averaging 2.56 bases per game and is 59-46 vs. this prop. What’s not to like?
Health is the main risk factor, as the outfielder/designated hitter is only two games removed from an injured list stint caused by an elbow issue.
He’s fit enough to swing, though. That makes him a value play at this price.
Astros starter Hunter Brown has a sub-2.50 ERA on the season, but he’s been more hittable lately. In his past six starts, the righty has allowed 31 hits and a 4.64 ERA in 33.0 innings.
Brown throws sinkers and four-seamers roughly 70% of the time to right-hitting opponents. Judge has a .438/.500/.846 slash line on those pitches from RHPs in 130 at-bats.
Key stat: Judge is 2-for-3 with a home run vs. Brown.
Quick pick
Sanchez over 0.5 runs (+120): It’s only been four starts, but New York’s Cam Schlittler hasn’t put together a particularly strong outing yet.
The rookie right-hander has allowed multiple runs in all four starts, posting a 4.58 ERA (5.01 xERA) overall. In 19.2 innings, he’s had 33 baserunners.
With that in mind, I want a piece of the Astros’ lineup tonight in the run prop market. Sanchez, who will likely bat in the No. 2 spot, has an enticing price to score.
The ex-Miami Marlin has doubled in four straight games and crossed the plate in each of his past three.
Sanchez isn’t elite in many bat-to-ball metrics, but he’s prominently above average in a lot of critical ones.
He ranks in the 67th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, barrel rate and average exit velocity.
Astros vs. Yankees prop picks made at 2 p.m. ET on 08/08/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.