Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic lock horns for an epic Australian Open finale on Sunday.
The pre-match narrative: History will be made one way or another at Melbourne Park. Alcaraz, 22, could become the youngest man to complete the Grand Slam. Djokovic, meanwhile, aims to extend his record of 24 majors and 10 Australian Open titles.
Check out my Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions and the latest tennis odds for the men’s final on Feb. 1, scheduled to take place at 3:30 a.m. ET.
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Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions
Djokovic was a huge +840 underdog heading into his semifinal against Jannik Sinner on Friday morning.
With Alcaraz already through after beating Alexander Zverev in a gruelling five-setter, it seemed like another chapter of a young, budding rivalry was ready to be written.
But Djokovic had other ideas, besting the World No. 2 to reach his first Grand Slam final since 2023.
Alcaraz is a deserving favourite, but this match isn’t expected to end quickly. Get my best bet for the Australian Open final below.
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Australian Open men’s final pick
Best bet: Alcaraz over 20.5 games (-117)
I think Alcaraz will win this match, but not without a fight.
The odds indicate that, too, as Djokovic carries -230 odds to win at least one set.
That said, I think this is the best way to back Alcaraz.
If Alcaraz wins in four sets, with no tiebreakers, he would need to pick up three games in the set he loses. If there is a tiebreaker in one of the sets that Alcaraz wins, he could even afford dropping a set 6-2 to Djokovic.
First, let me explain why Alcaraz should win.
The Spaniard was on a warpath leading up to his semifinal against Zverev, winning each match without dropping a set. He had a 2-0 lead on the German before eventually winning a 6-4, 7-5, 6-7, 6-7, 7-5 war.
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Alcaraz has now won 13 straight matches on hard court at Grand Slams dating back to last year’s Australian Open, when he lost to … Djokovic.
The Spaniard got revenge against Djokovic at the 2025 U.S. Open semifinal later that year.
These two have combined for some spirited battles, and I don’t want to discount the 24-time Grand Slam winner amid his stellar play.
Djokovic will throw everything he has at Alcaraz. I see the young gun winning in four or five competitive sets.
Key stat: Alcaraz has gone over this line in five of his six Grand Slam victories.
Alcaraz vs. Djokovic predictions made at 12 p.m. on Jan. 30, 2026.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.