The Alabama Crimson Tide and Duke Blue Devils battle in the Elite Eight on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: Both teams have very good offences so I’ll back a teased-down over for this game. This +310 SGP also includes prop picks on Mark Sears and Khaman Maluach.
Check out my Alabama vs. Duke SGP predictions for their Elite Eight matchup on March 29.
Alabama vs. Duke predictions
Parlay: Over 170.5 points | Sears over 19.5 points | Maluach over 8.5 points (+310)
Over 170.5 points (-167): These offensive units are capable of putting up NBA-type numbers.
We saw that with Alabama last time out. It scored 113 points against the BYU Cougars. Duke was just as good, scoring 100 points in a shootout with the Arizona Wildcats.
It’s not surprising considering Alabama ranks fourth in offensive rating (127.5), while Duke ranks first (130.2), per KenPom.com.
Both teams sit near the top in defensive rating, too, but I think the offence can shine through.
Alabama and Duke have each scored 80-plus in all their March Madness games so far.
NCAA SGP legs
Sears over 19.5 points (-157): The Crimson Tide will need Sears to show up if they want a shot at upsetting Duke.
He’s coming off his best game where he dropped 34 points, attempting 16 threes and making 10 of them. Overall, he’s 2-1 against this line at the tournament.
Sears didn’t play well at the SEC tournament, going under this total in all three games. But he cashed this wager in five straight games prior.
That included a 30-point performance over the Florida Gators, 24 points against the Tennessee Volunteers and 30 points against the Kentucky Wildcats.
All of those teams were in the Round of 16, and two were in the Elite Eight.
Sears had a down year but still averaged 19-plus points and did so in three of his five college seasons.
He’s proven to be capable against elite teams and I predict another strong showing when the lights are the brightest.
Maluach over 8.5 points (-124): The 7-foot-2 freshman doesn’t need a lot of volume to surpass this low total.
- Round of 64: 11 points, 5-of-5 shooting
- Round of 32: 8 points, 3-of-3 shooting
- Round of 16: 13 points, 6-of-8 shooting
As the games have become more important, Maluach has received more playing time. Since I feel this game is going to have a ton of points, I also feel he will have above-average volume.
If he does see any sort of uptick in shot attempts, he should smash this total.
Texas Tech vs. Florida predictions made at 3:45 p.m. on 03/28/25
Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.