The potential top pick in this year’s NBA draft will be in Lubbock, Texas on Monday night, as the No. 11 Texas Tech Red Raiders host the No. 14 Kansas Jayhawks.
The pregame narrative: Darryn Peterson has missed a slew of games this season with various leg injuries, though he put on a show with a reduced workload last time out. The freshman standout hopes to help the Jayhawks build on a five-game winning streak tonight.
Check out my college basketball same-game parlay Kansas vs. Texas Tech picks, featuring a prop bet on JT Toppin.
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Kansas vs. Texas Tech picks
SGP: Peterson over 2.5 threes | Toppin 20+ points | Kansas +7.5 (+350)
Peterson over 2.5 threes (+110): Peterson played a season-low 20 minutes on Saturday, sitting on the bench in the second half while his team nearly blew a big lead at home.
There was some speculation online that Peterson’s agent got involved to ensure the prized prospect wasn’t overworked. But after the game, Kansas coach Bill Self said Peterson was sidelined due to cramping.
Believe whatever you want, but just know that Peterson’s workload could be curtailed again tonight. Then again, he didn’t appear on the injury report, which is a positive sign.
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Some uncertainty regarding his minutes volume is presumably priced into this prop. Because otherwise, I wouldn’t expect to see plus-money odds for a guy averaging 2.9 made 3s on 43.2% shooting.
Peterson is 9-2 vs. this prop. He’s also 16-for-34 (47.1%) from deep in five road games, so a hostile environment shouldn’t be a factor.
College basketball prop pick
Toppin 20+ points (-245): Peterson isn’t the only NBA-bound hooper being showcased in the Lone Star State tonight.
In fact, Toppin has a great chance of being the game’s highest scorer when the final buzzer sounds.
- The talented forward is averaging 22.4 PPG and is 12-8 vs. this scoring milestone (landing on 19 points twice).
- In his past five games, Toppin is 5-0 vs. this prop while averaging 27.6 PPG.
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The 6-foot-9 junior largely operates inside the perimeter, but he’s found some recent success from 3-point land. Since Jan. 14, Toppin is 8-for-17 from deep (47.1%).
In his lone matchup vs. Kansas last year, Toppin fouled out after playing just 22 minutes. But he still cashed this prop, scoring 21 points on 9-of-15 shooting.
Toppin isn’t related to either NBA player that shares his surname (Obi, Jacob), but he’s doing a great job of building his own legacy at Texas Tech.
Jayhawks/Red Raiders ATS prediction
Kansas +7.5 (-200): Kansas is rarely an underdog, and I’ve teased tonight’s spread up to a point that I feel really good about.
- The Jayhawks have a 14-7-0 ATS record overall. That’s tied for 10th-best in NCAA Division I men’s basketball.
- They’re 3-1 SU in their past four games as underdogs, dating back to Nov. 26. The only loss was against UConn (61-56 on Dec. 2), and the Jayhawks still covered this spread.
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Texas Tech should win, don’t get me wrong. The team is 11-0 at home, with impressive wins over Houston, Duke and BYU.
But I think Kansas will at least keep it close, and a pair of reputable NCAA basketball analytics sites agree.
KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com are both projecting a two-point win for TTU.
Kansas vs. Texas Tech picks made at 2:45 p.m. on Feb. 2, 2026.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.