The Toronto Raptors test their mettle in a road matchup against the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday.
The pregame narrative: Toronto sits fourth in the Eastern Conference and has won three straight games by double digits. Still, Oklahoma City is laying 12 points at home. The defending champs have the best net rating (+12.9) and record (37-9) in the NBA.
Check out my Raptors vs. Thunder SGP predictions for Jan. 25, featuring Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Scottie Barnes.
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Raptors vs. Thunder SGP
Parlay: Raptors +14.5 | Barnes 8+ rebounds | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (+270)
Raptors +14.5 (-157): Betting against OKC in any capacity at home is dangerous.
The Thunder are 20-3 at Paycom Center with a +13.6 net rating. For context, the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls’ +13.4 net rating was the best in history.
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But this isn’t a fully-healthy Thunder squad.
Jalen Williams, Isaiah Hartenstein, Alex Caruso and Ajay Mitchell are out, and Aaron Wiggins is questionable.
OKC just lost at home on Friday to the Indiana Pacers, and has failed to cover this number in four of its last five games at Paycom Center.
Toronto is running hot, has covered this number in 14 of its last 15 games, and is 9-4-0 ATS as a road underdog.
NBA SGP legs
Barnes 8+ rebounds (-132): Toronto should thrive on the glass tonight.
Oklahoma City ranks 29th in rebounding rate since Hartenstein went down with an injury on Dec. 28. And while Chet Holmgren is tall, he lacks the frame to be a truly dominant rebounder.
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Barnes is averaging a career-high 8.2 rebounds per game and has been right around this number in his last 20 games:
- 7+ rebounds 16 times
- 8+ rebounds 11 times
The power forward is cashing this more often than not, and should over-index against one of the league’s worst rebounding teams.
Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-275): Finally, I’m turning to SGA to reach what, for him, is a modest scoring milestone.
The Canadian is in pole position to win a second-straight MVP for good reason:
- 32.3 PPG (second)
- 67.4 TS% (fifth)
- 55.7 FG% (14th)
SGA has reached this milestone in four straight games and in six of his last eight. He’s also entering this off back-to-back 40-plus point games.
Toronto struggles to defend the point guards, allowing the eighth-most points per game to the position, per Fantasy Pros.
There is more than enough leeway for SGA to reach this milestone and for Toronto to cover a +14.5 spread.
Raptors vs. Thunder predictions made at 12:25 p.m. on Jan. 25, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.