Victoria Mboko is the last Canadian standing in Melbourne Park as we enter the fourth round of the Australian Open.
The pregame narrative: Mboko is a sizeable underdog against four-time Grand Slam winner and harcourt assassin Aryna Sabalenka. The Belarusian has won this tournament twice, while Mboko is looking to reach her first-ever Grand Slam quarterfinal.
Check out my top Australian Open fourth-round picks for Jan. 24-25 at Melbourne Park, featuring a prediction on Daniil Medvedev vs. Learner Tien.
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Australian Open fourth-round picks
Best bet: Medvedev over 20.5 games won (-104)
Around this time last year, Tien eliminated Medvedev in the second round of the Australian Open.
That match required five sets, took four hours and 49 minutes, and was the start of a horrible year at the majors for Medvedev.
The Russian crashed out of his next three grand slams, losing in the first round at each tournament while almost inciting a riot at the U.S. Open. Fun stuff.
-> Check out the third-round Australian Open schedule
But it seems like Medvedev has found “it” after bringing on an entirely new coaching staff.
He’s a perfect 8-0 this year, with a win at the Brisbane International, and is 16-2 dating back to the Almaty Open in October.
I’m leaning with Medvedev winning this match, but I don’t want to pay the -225 juice.
This wager provides a couple of strategic benefits, all but guaranteeing a cash if Medvedev wins in four-plus sets (assuming he doesn’t lose 6-2 in the outlier). Additionally, Medvedev could go over 20.5 games in a very tight four-set match or a five-set match where he loses.
Tien has played in one five-set and one four-set match already so far, and he’s 13-2 in his last 15 matches.
This has the makings of another thriller, and I like Medvedev’s chances of racking up games regardless of how it plays out.
Key stat: Medvedev has won at least 20 games in all seven of his Grand Slam matches dating back to last year’s battle against Tien. He is 5-2 against this line in that span.
Victoria Mboko Australian Open prediction
Mboko +4.5 games (+123): Mboko rarely loses, and when she does, it’s not by a big margin.
- The Canadian is 70-16 since the start of last season, and she enters this match winning 15 of her last 17.
- Mboko already has wins over Naomi Osaka, Madison Keys, Coco Gauff, and Elena Rybakina under her belt.
-> Bet on Canadian Victoria Mboko at the Australian Open!
Sabalenka is in a different class, especially on hard courts, where she’s won all four of her Grand Slams.
The 27-year-old is in her prime and posted a 36-6 record on the surface last year — but I still don’t think this will be a demolition derby.
Sabalenka needed a double tiebreak to get past Anastasia Potapova in the third-round, showing that she is human, after all.
Mboko is red hot and has earned my respect even against the game’s best.
Australian Open fourth-round picks made at 3:30 p.m. on Jan. 23, 2026.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.