Mitch Marner takes the spotlight on Friday as the former Maple Leaf returns to Toronto for the first time as a member of the Vegas Golden Knights.
The pregame narrative: Marner left the Maple Leafs sitting fifth on the team’s all-time scoring list, but the oft-embattled forward is expected to receive a heavy dosage of boos tonight. Vegas beat Toronto in a 6-5 thriller last week and is a slight road favourite in this rematch north of the border.
Check out my Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs picks and NHL predictions for Jan. 23, featuring a prop bet on Auston Matthews.
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Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs picks
Best bet: Matthews to score (+116)
New year, old Matthews.
Toronto’s captain has caught fire in January after a slow start to the season, ripping home 10 goals in 11 games. Check out his league-wide ranks during that span, with stats provided by Natural Stat Trick:
- 1st in goals (11)
- 1st in scoring chances (61)
- 10th in shots (39)
That’s the Rocket Richard-winning version of No. 34 hockey fans have come to know.
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Matthews has a 25.6% shooting percentage in January, so it’s fair to expect a bit of regression there. But his career average was around 16.5% before last year, which is still among the elite of the elite.
Confidence is everything, and Matthews is feeling it right now.
Vegas hasn’t confirmed its netminder yet, but all signs point to Adin Hill since Akira Schmid played yesterday against Boston.
Hill has a 3.01 GAA and .873 SV% this year, which would rank 45th and 55th had he played enough games to qualify.
Key stat: Matthews has 11 goals in 13 games against Vegas and has scored in three of his last four versus the Golden Knights (including last week with Hill in net).
NHL predictions for Marner’s Toronto return
Over 6 goals (-117): If Hill plays, this would be his third start since returning from a lengthy injured reserve stint.
The early results have been ugly: Five goals allowed against Toronto, and two goals on 17 shots against the Philadelphia Flyers.
In October, Hill posted an .888 SV% in five games.
Toronto’s offence has been among the league’s best since Christmas, averaging a blistering 3.5 goals across 14 games. For context, the Tampa Bay Lightning’s 3.5 goals per game rank second this year.
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I’m confident the Leafs can get after Hill, or whoever plays (all four of Vegas’ goalies have a sub-.900 SV%), and I believe the Golden Knights will get their licks in, too.
Toronto’s defensive corps is decimated with Oliver-Ekman Larsson, Brandon Carlo, and Chris Tanev sidelined.
Vegas out-gunned Toronto for a 6-5 win last week and is 6-2-1 against this line in its last nine games.
Golden Knights vs. Maple Leafs picks made at 10:05 a.m. ET Jan. 23, 2026.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.