Two teams are securing their spots in the Super Bowl on Sunday, while two others are going home.
NFL conference championship narrative: The New England Patriots find themselves in ultra-rare territory as road favourites in a conference championship game. In the NFC, the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams square up in an NFC West grudge match at Lumen Field.
Check out our staff’s NFL picks against the spread for the conference championship round.
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NFL picks against the spread
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin and Chris Toman offer up their NFL picks against the spread for both playoff games during conference championship Sunday.
NFL odds as of 1:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 22, 2026.
AFC championship ATS predictions
Patriots vs. Broncos (Sunday, Jan. 25: 3:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: New England -4.5
Horrobin says: Jarrett Stidham is in his third year holding a clipboard on Denver’s bench. I’m sure he knows Sean Payton’s system well, and I don’t expect the 29-year-old to look like a rookie.
But I also don’t expect him to be very good, given that Sunday marks his first meaningful NFL action since the 2023 season. And he’s up against a New England team that’s in runaway-freight-train mode.
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The Patriots are 15-1 in their past 16 games, and they’ve covered this number in 12 of those.
Both defences rank in the top five in scoring and top 10 in yards, so the key comparison is on offence. There’s an ocean of difference between Drake Maye, an NFL MVP finalist, and Stidham, a career backup.
Perri says: I have to agree with Jordan — getting New England at -4.5 seems too good to be true.
Maye hasn’t played to his ceiling this postseason, taking 10 sacks and throwing an interception in each game. Still, New England came away with a pair of dominant wins and covers.
If Maye can get settled in, there’s a good chance this will be a wire-to-wire blowout.
The Broncos struggled to beat anybody by margin this year, picking up just four two-score victories. Without Nix, I think Denver’s best-case scenario is a close game heading into the fourth quarter.
From there, it’s a QB battle. Give me the second-team All-Pro over the guy who hasn’t attempted a pass since 2023.
Staff picks: Perri (NE) | Horrobin (NE) | Toman (NE)
-> See all Drake Maye props for the AFC title game
NFC championship ATS predictions
Rams vs. Seahawks (Sunday, Jan. 25: 6:30 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Seattle -2.5
Horrobin says: During the regular season, the Seahawks and Rams both won the home end of their head-to-head series. The games were decided by a combined three points.
It would surprise no one if this game also came right down to the wire, but I think the Seahawks are well-positioned to cover.
- Seattle is 11-4-0 ATS as a favourite this season, according to Team Rankings.
- The Seahawks posted the NFL’s best point differential in the regular season (+191). They’ve also covered a -2.5 spread in 13 of 18 games.
- The Rams were on the road — in the eastern and central time zones — in the first two playoff rounds. Meanwhile, the Seahawks were at home for a bye and a 35-point drubbing of the 49ers.
-> Full Rams vs. Seahawks betting markets. Bet now!
After playing last Saturday, the Seahawks have one extra day of rest… as if they needed another edge.
Perri says: I think the road underdogs can keep this close.
The Rams haven’t lost by more than three points since Week 3, scoring an atomic 31.2 PPG from then onward.
L.A. can keep pace with anybody with Puka Nacua, Kyren Williams and Matthew Stafford running the show.
But, for me, this comes down to Sam Darnold and Chris Shula. The Rams’ defensive coordinator has repeatedly given Darnold fits.
-> Bet on the NFC title game: Props, SGPs & more!
- 2025 wild-card (as member of Vikings): 25-for-40, 1 TD, 1 INT, 9 sacks, 77.6 QBR
- 2025-26 Week 11: 29-for-44, 0 TD, 4 INT, 0 sacks, 45.5 QBR
- 2025-26 Week 16: 22-for-34, 2 TD, 2 INT, 4 sacks, 84.2 QBR
We’ve never seen Darnold in a moment this big, and Stafford has already won it all. I’ll side with the veteran and likely MVP.
Staff picks: Perri (LAR) | Horrobin (SEA) | Toman (LAR)
NFL picks against the spread records: Regular season + playoffs
- Toman: 134-130-8 (3-5-0)
- Perri: 133-131-8 (2-6-0)
- Horrobin: 123-141-8 (5-3-0)
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