The Super Bowl will be here before you know it, and now it’s time to sort out which teams will be playing for the Lombardi Trophy.
NFL conference championship narrative: Bo Nix’s injury puts the Denver Broncos in rarified air as the largest home underdogs in a conference championship game since the 1970 merger. Later on, the Los Angeles Rams look to get to the Super Bowl the hard way with their third road matchup in as many weeks.
Check out our NFL best bets for the 2026 AFC and NFC conference championship playoff games, featuring prop predictions on RJ Harvey, Sam Darnold and Colby Parkinson.
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NFL best bets
NFL best bets were written by NorthStar Bets writers Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin and Chris Toman.
Seahawks -2.5 (-105): The Seahawks and Rams split their season series, 1-1, with both teams winning at home in games decided by less than a field goal.
For Act III, I like Seattle to cover while continuing its dominant late-season stretch.
- A 21-19 loss in L.A. — in which Sam Darnold threw four interceptions — is Seattle’s only defeat since Week 6.
- Seattle has covered a -2.5 spread in 13 of 17 games this season. Also, the Seahawks are 11-4-0 ATS as favourites, per Team Rankings.
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It’s also worth noting that the Rams and Seahawks have had vastly different experiences in the playoffs.
L.A. scraped by in a pair of road games in the eastern and central time zones, beating the Panthers and Bears by a field goal apiece (0-2 ATS).
Seattle, meanwhile, rested during the wild-card round and then torched the 49ers, 41-6, at home last Saturday.
With an extra day of rest, no travel, and the NFL’s best point differential, give me the Seahawks by three at home.
-Horrobin
NFL playoff prop predictions
Parkinson over 21.5 receiving yards (-112): Puka Nacua will dominate targets, but several Rams can benefit from quarterback Matthew Stafford’s passing volume.
Stafford has attempted 42 passes in back-to-back playoff games and hit the 40-mark in four of his last five contests. That includes Week 16 vs. the Seahawks when he attempted a season-high 49 passes.
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- Parkinson is getting targeted plenty and has come up big for the Rams, scoring nine times since Week 10.
- One of his scores came in the wild-card win over the Carolina Panthers when he caught the game-winning touchdown.
- The surging tight end was limited to a sub-50% snap share in each game through Week 8. But he’s turned into a reliable option in Los Angeles’ passing attack over the back half of the season.
| Game | Targets | Receptions | Yards | Snap count |
| Week 10 | 5 | 4 | 41 | 57% |
| Week 11 | 2 | 2 | 14 | 69% |
| Week 12 | 4 | 4 | 41 | 63% |
| Week 13 | 5 | 4 | 27 | 67% |
| Week 14 | 5 | 3 | 32 | 69% |
| Week 15 | 7 | 5 | 75 | 86% |
| Week 16 | 4 | 2 | 21 | 86% |
| Week 17 | 7 | 6 | 53 | 78% |
| Week 18 | 7 | 4 | 36 | 84% |
| Wild-card | 3 | 2 | 34 | 75% |
| Divisional | 7 | 3 | 56 | 68% |
Parkinson was held under this number in both meetings vs. the Seahawks (Week 11, Week 16). But Seattle isn’t a bad matchup for tight ends, allowing the fifth-most receptions and sixth-most yards in the regular season, per Pro Football Reference.
The 27-year-old is coming off a season-high-tying seven-target outing and has blown past this number repeatedly, reaching the 30-yard mark eight times in his last 11 games.
San Francisco tight end Jake Tonges (filling in for George Kittle) amassed five receptions and 59 yards on six targets in the Niners’ blowout loss to the Seahawks in the divisional round.
–Toman
NFL player prop pick: Fade Darnold vs. Rams
Darnold to throw an interception (-141): Darnold wasn’t asked to do much in last week’s blowout win, completing 12-of-17 passes for a touchdown.
I’m curious to see how the QB stacks up against a much healthier and scarier Rams defence, which has given him fits.
- Darnold threw six interceptions against L.A. this year (four in Week 11, two in Week 16).
- Last year, as a member of the Minnesota Vikings in the playoffs, Darnold completely melted down against the Rams. He threw an interception while taking nine sacks in a blowout loss.
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It sure looks like Rams defensive coordinator Chris Shula knows how to make Darnold uncomfortable.
This wager carries a hefty -141 price tag, but I’m fine playing it as a standalone.
L.A.’s defence is running hot. It picked off Caleb Williams three times last week and Bryce Young once in the wild-card round. Darnold has thrown a pick in nine of 18 games this year.
-Perri
NFL best bets: Anytime touchdown prediction
Harvey to score (+160): Everyone in Sunday’s AFC championship game has plus-money odds to score. It could be an ugly one.
I’ll take my chances with Harvey, who’s the clear-cut No. 1 option for the Broncos near the goal line.
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From Weeks 13-18, Harvey had 10 carries inside the 10-yard line. His teammate, Jaleel McLaughlin, had zero.
Harvey sees decent work as a receiver, too, with 15 catches over his past four games. But I’m more fixated on his red zone rushing volume.
It’s fair to expect the Broncos to struggle on offence with Jarrett Stidham at the helm. But if their defence can give them a short field or two, Harvey should be the top candidate to punch it in.
The rookie tailback has six TDs in his past seven games.
-Horrobin
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