Kevin Durant and LaMelo Ball headline Sunday’s NBA prop bets.
Tonight’s NBA props narrative: Durant has been on a tear for the Houston Rockets, and can do damage against the bottom-feeding New Orleans Pelicans. Elsewhere, expect Ball to stay red-hot from beyond the arc.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Jan. 18, featuring a pick on Chicago’s Matas Buzelis.
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NBA prop picks Jan. 18
Best bet: Durant over 25.5 points (-125)
Houston is a big favourite in this matchup, setting the table for a game with blowout potential.
That’s what the -13.5 spread indicates, at least. But I’m not worried about that.
The Rockets are 3-5 in their last eight games with zero double-digit wins. That’s no fault of Durant, who averaged 29.5 points while shooting 49.7% from the field during that span.
The future Hall of Famer has been an incredibly consistent scorer in his 18th season, reaching another gear lately.
He is 8-3 against this mark in his last 11 games, scoring 30-plus points six times.
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KD has a sky-high shot volume, which is always nice, and now goes up against a Pelicans team which struggles to defend the mid-range.
- New Orleans has the fourth-worst mid-range defence (45.9%) and the third-worst defensive rating (119.2) in the NBA, per Cleaning the Glass.
- Durant takes 60% of his shots from the mid-range. That ranks in the 99th percentile among all forwards.
I don’t expect the Rockets to boatrace a Pelicans team which has kept five straight games within double digits.
That means Durant will get ample opportunities to fill the net.
Key stat: Durant has cleared this mark in four of his last six home games.
Best NBA picks
Ball 4+ threes (+110): When Ball and Kon Knueppel get hot at the same time, watch out.
The former is doing his part to make it rain from beyond-the-arc, putting up some ridiculous numbers since returning from injury on Dec. 18:
- 4.5 makes/game
- 10.1 attempts/game
- 44.7 3PT%
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Ball is 10-6 against this line in that span, and is two games removed from hitting nine 3s against the Los Angeles Lakers.
His opponent tonight, the Denver Nuggets, doesn’t give up a ton from deep, but is also playing on a back-to-back without Christian Braun and Nikola Jokic.
Ball is also playing on no rest, but he’s a career 39.8% three-point shooter on back-to-backs.
Buzelis over 16.5 points (-118): Buzelis gets another crack at the Brooklyn Nets following a disappointing showing on Friday, where he shot 4-for-15 from the field.
Still, the Lithuanian finished just shy of this mark with 15 points.
In his last eight games when playing 20-plus minutes, Buzelis is averaging 19.2 points and is 6-2 against this line. He scored exactly 15 points in both of the outliers.
That’s a great floor to work with, and one he should exceed against Brooklyn.
The Nets have a bottom-10 defensive rating and give up the ninth-most points per game to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Pros.
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NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Jan. 18, 2026.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.