The NFL divisional round is often heralded as the most exciting slate of the year. This weekend features four tight matchups split between Saturday and Sunday.
NFL divisional round narrative: The Seattle Seahawks (-7) are the largest favourites on the board against their NFC West rival San Francisco 49ers. Every other game features a spread of four points or fewer, including a pick’em between Josh Allen’s Buffalo Bills and Bo Nix’s Denver Broncos.
Check out our staff’s NFL ATS predictions for the divisional round.
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NFL ATS predictions
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin and Chris Toman offer up their NFL ATS predictions for every playoff game on wild-card weekend.
NFL odds as of 2 p.m. ET on Thursday, Jan. 15, 2026.
Sunday’s against the spread playoff picks
Texans vs. Patriots (Sunday, Jan. 18: 3:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: New England -3
Horrobin says: I think I’d prefer the under rather than an ATS play after seeing how both of these defences performed during wild-card weekend. But I do like the Pats to cover a field goal at home.
New England, which dominated in a 16-3 win over the Chargers last Sunday, has been at home all month.
The Texans, meanwhile, played on Monday in Pittsburgh before hitting the road again.
Houston’s defence is ferocious, and it put up a couple of defensive scores in the wild-card round, so that’s a concern. But MVP candidate Drake Maye, who led the NFL in completion percentage, is responsible enough to trust.
New England is 8-3-1 ATS as a home favourite, and the team is 12-2-1 vs. this spread since Week 4.
I still don’t trust C.J. Stroud in road outdoor games, where he’s 7-8 with an 83.9 passer rating (average NFL passer rating this year was 91.4).
Staff picks: Perri (NE) | Horrobin (NE) | Toman (HOU)
Rams vs. Bears (Sunday, Jan. 18: 6:30 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Los Angeles -4
Perri says: Chicago is coming off a potentially franchise-altering win, erasing an 18-point deficit to eliminate the Green Bay Packers at Soldier Field. I think the Bears got their postseason jitters out of the way and can strike while the iron is hot.
Caleb Williams and Co. are 7-2 at home this year with a +68 point differential. The Bears covered a +4 spread in both losses, too.
Los Angeles’ defence hasn’t impressed me recently, giving up 29.75 PPG over the final four weeks of the regular season before allowing the Carolina Panthers to score 31 points in the wild-card round.
In the cold, I expect the L.A.-based Rams to struggle.
Staff picks: Perri (CHI) | Horrobin (CHI) | Toman (CHI)
NFL regular season + playoff ATS records:
- Toman: 134-130-8 (2-2-0)
- Perri: 133-131-8, (0-4-0)
- Horrobin: 123-141-8, (2-2-0)
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