On Wednesday night, the Los Angeles Lakers visit the San Antonio Spurs in a matchup of teams playing on back-to-backs.
The pregame narrative: LeBron James and Victor Wembanyama are both listed as questionable, so I’m turning elsewhere for prop picks. This +440 ticket does feature one superstar, Luka Doncic, but he’s looking fade-worthy tonight.
Check out my Lakers vs. Spurs SGP predictions for Jan. 7, featuring prop bets on Stephon Castle and Julian Champagnie.
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Lakers vs. Spurs SGP
Parlay: Castle 25+ points/assists | Doncic under 37.5 points | Champagnie over 11.5 points (+440)
Castle 25+ points/assists (-132): Statistically speaking, Castle has had some bumps in the road in recent weeks. But I think the path for a productive showing on Wednesday will be smooth.
- According to Fantasy Pros, the Lakers allow the third-most assists to opposing point guards (9.7/game).
- In two matchups vs. L.A. this season, Castle has 46 points and 14 assists (30 PA per game).
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The reigning Rookie of the Year is 1-1 vs. this prop when facing the Lakers, but he landed on exactly 24 points/assists in the under. And that was a game in which he shot an uncharacteristic 3-for-11 from the field.
Overall, the former UConn standout is 15-12 vs. this line.
NBA SGP legs
Doncic under 37.5 points (-167): We’re playing with fire here, as Doncic has the ability to go nuclear on any given night. He is the NBA scoring leader, after all.
But even as the top scorer in the NBA, Doncic’s average (33.5 PPG) falls well below this mark.
He scored 35 points apiece in both previous matchups vs. the Spurs this season. As impressive as that is, it put him under this sky-high line both times.
With Austin Reaves (calf) out, it would’ve been fair to assume that Doncic would shoulder even more of a scoring load for the Lakers. But that hasn’t been true.
In the absence of his backcourt mate, Doncic is averaging 30.7 PPG in 10 games. This under is 9-1 in those matchups.
All things considered, this is a pretty playable price to fade Doncic at a massive point total. On principle, I have to jump on that.
Champagnie over 11.5 points (-139): Devin Vassell’s injury has vaulted Champagnie into a heightened role, and he’s certainly seizing the opportunity to get shots up.
Having landed in the starting lineup in four straight games sans-Vassell, here’s what Champagnie has been up to:
- 22.0 PPG
- 20+ points in three of four
- 13.8 shots/game
- 48.9 3PT%
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Champagnie can easily clear this prop from beyond the arc. He’s averaging 11.3 attempted 3s in the past four games, and if four of those go in, we’re laughing.
This is a solid matchup for Champagnie to do damage, as the Lakers allow the 11th-most made 3s on the sixth-highest 3PT% (37.3).
The fourth-year wing has cashed this bet in both previous matchups vs. the Lakers this season, scoring 14 and 16 points, respectively, in those games.
Lakers vs. Spurs predictions made at 3:20 p.m. on Jan. 7, 2026.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.