49ers vs. Colts Week 16 Monday Night Football picks: Back the over, George Kittle to have another star performance

49ers vs. Colts picks

The San Francisco 49ers look to win their fifth straight game when they visit the Indianapolis Colts on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: The 49ers are getting healthy and at the right time. They are averaging 31.0 points per game during their winning streak and have another opportunity to put up a ton of points against a struggling Colts’ defence.

Check out my 49ers vs. Colts picks for Dec. 22, featuring a prop bet on George Kittle.

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49ers vs. Colts picks

Best bet: Kittle over 66.5 receiving yards (-109)

When healthy, Kittle is the cream of the crop at the tight end position.

  • He has cleared this yardage total in five straight games.
  • During that time, he averaged 6.6 catches on 7.8 targets for 76.8 receiving yards.

Those are top wide receiver numbers rather than numbers you’d typically see out of a tight end.

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And this line is on the low end for a pass catcher of his calibre.

Then, take into account the matchup, and this starts to look like a smash play.

The Colts give up the second-most passing yards per game (247.6). On a team without an elite receiver, Kittle should be targeted early and often by Brock Purdy.

Key stat: Indianapolis also allows the fifth most yards per game to opposing tight ends (66.2).

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MNF over/under pick

Over 46 points (-109): I believe both teams can contribute enough to cover this modest total on Monday.

As previously mentioned, the Colts have a terrible pass defence, but it doesn’t stop there. They also allow opponents to convert 41.4% of third downs.

That allows teams to consistently move the chains and run up the score.

On the other side, the 49ers don’t have the great defence of seasons past. They have a below-average unit that is highlighted by allowing 227.6 passing yards per game (11th worst in the NFL).

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Philip Rivers looked his age in Week 15, but the Seattle Seahawks have a far superior defence. In fact, they allow the second fewest points per game.

So it makes sense the Colts’ offence was held to 16 points, but even one more touchdown should be enough to push this game over its total.

I foresee the 49ers doing most of the heavy lifting, though. The offence is as healthy as it’s been all season, and Purdy is coming off his best game of the season (three touchdowns, zero interceptions).

San Francisco scored 37 points in that game against the Tennessee Titans, and it finished with a total of 61 points.

The Colts’ offence is just as good as the Titans’, even with Rivers, so a similar result should be expected this week.

49ers vs. Colts picks made at 2:35 p.m. ET Dec. 20, 2025.

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Spencer is a true sports junkie. A graduate of the Sports Journalism program at Centennial College, he first joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2023. He is now a contributing writer. He loves finding the edge to bet on in all sports but has a deep passion for the NBA and UFC. Previous stops include Sportsnet.