The Baltimore Ravens host the New England Patriots in a must-see Sunday Night Football matchup.
The pregame narrative: It was a no-brainer for the NFL to flex this into primetime. New England is alive for the AFC’s top seed and controls its destiny to win the AFC East. Baltimore, meanwhile, needs to keep pace with the Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North to potentially backdoor into the playoffs.
Check out my Patriots vs. Ravens picks for Dec. 21, featuring a prop bet on Drake Maye.
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Patriots vs. Ravens picks
Best Bet: Patriots +3.5 (-136)
I’m willing to pay a little more juice to back the Patriots as a field goal dog plus the hook.
Hopefully, it’s not needed, because New England should win this game outright. The only thing standing between the Pats and an 11-game winning streak was blowing a 21-0 lead at home last week.
But that was against Josh Allen, and the reigning MVP completely took over the game.
New England is elite on both sides of the ball, and I don’t think Lamar Jackson is capable of pulling off an Allen-like performance right now.
-> Bet on the Patriots on Sunday Night Football
Jackson is clearly banged up and has posted some very underwhelming numbers since the start of November:
- 56.4 completion percentage
- 189.5 passing yards/game
- 25.5 rushing yards/game
- 5 total TDs, 6 total turnovers
In that span, he ranks 28th in EPA per play and completion and 29th in completion percentage above expected, per RBDSM.com. Maye ranks eighth and second.
Boiling this game down to a quarterback duel makes enough sense to me, but I don’t trust the Ravens’ defence either.
Baltimore shut out the Cincinnati Bengals last week, but had given up 59 points in the two weeks before (both losses). On the season, it is allowing the 10th-most yards per game.
Key stat: New England has a +106 point differential (best in the AFC). Baltimore has a +15 point differential.
SNF prop prediction
Maye over 233.5 passing yards (-113): Maye’s MVP odds took a hit this week, mainly because of how electric Matthew Stafford was on Thursday Night Football.
I say the Patriots’ signal caller responds with a master class of his own.
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Maye came out of the gates firing against the Buffalo Bills before going dead quiet in the second half. It was a rare sight for the sophomore, given what he’s done all year long:
- 1st in completion percentage (70.9)
- 3rd in passer rating (109.1)
- 5th in passing yards/game (254.8)
Maye had at least 200 passing yards in every game leading up to last week, going 10-3 against this line.
And he had cleared this total in six straight matchups before facing the Bills while averaging 278.0 passing yards.
This is a perfect matchup for him to bounce back.
The Ravens are allowing 245 passing yards per game to opposing QBs (ninth-most in the NFL). Maye is among the league’s best, so I expect him to smash this line.
Patriots vs. Ravens picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET Dec. 20, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.