The 2025 College Football Playoff is here, and I’ve got two TD picks for Saturday’s games.
The pregame narrative: The action begins at noon, when the Texas A&M Aggies host the Miami Hurricanes. A&M is a slim field-goal favourite and might get a boost in its run game with the return of Le’Veon Moss. Later on, Malik Benson should help the Oregon Ducks run up the score.
Check out my best college football TD picks and predictions for the Dec. 20 CFP games.
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College football TD picks: CFP first round
Best bet: Moss anytime TD (+103)
Texas A&M isn’t a team to overlook.
The Aggies sported a perfect 11-0 record heading into rivalry week, before losing to the then No. 16 Texas Longhorns.
Moss’ presence was missed in that matchup, as TAMU’s RBs combined for just 78 yards on 19 carries.
The senior tailback has been sidelined since early October, but had solid numbers before then (six games played):
- 64.8 yards/game
- 5.6 yards/carry
- Six touchdowns
-> Back Moss in No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Miami
Moss’ standout game was against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, when he turned 20 carries into 81 yards and three scores. Without him, there’s a good chance it would be Notre Dame, not Texas A&M, suiting up on Saturday.
I expect Mike Elko to utilize Moss heavily if he returns (which seems likely).
Miami struggles to stop the run, ranking a pedestrian 77th in defensive EPA per rush, per GameOnPaper.
Excluding the game where he left with an injury, Moss averaged 13 carries a game and was the team’s go-to goal-line back.
Key stat: Moss has 16 rushing TDs in 15 games since the start of last season.
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CFP anytime touchdown prediction
Benson anytime TD (-118): Oregon is a 21-point favourite in Eugene on Saturday night, and it would be a shock to see James Madison hang around in this one.
The Dukes are 12-1 and rank fourth in defensive EPA, but haven’t faced an opponent like this.
Oregon’s only loss this season was to the Big 10 champion Indiana Hoosiers. It has an extremely balanced offence, ranking 23rd in both EPA per pass and rush (net No. 4 in EPA per play).
JMU will be forced to respect Oregon’s run game, which Dan Lanning will want to establish early.
That should open up an opportunity for Benson to break one loose for a longer TD.
The speedy wideout leads the team in receiving yards (526) and yards per catch (17.0). He’s also coming off his best game of the season, turning five catches into 102 yards and a score against the Washington Huskies.
College football TD picks made at 12:01 p.m. on Dec. 19, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.