A pair of young point guards are highlighted in Thursday night’s NBA prop picks.
Today’s NBA props narrative: Stephon Castle has built off an award-winning rookie campaign to be the primary facilitator for the San Antonio Spurs, and he should be active in that role tonight. Elsewhere, look for Anthony Black to take advantage of an outsized role caused by injuries.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec 18, featuring Jalen Duren.
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NBA prop picks Dec. 17
Best bet: Black over 4.5 assists (+123)
With Jalen Suggs (hip) ruled out for tonight, the Orlando Magic will hand starting point guard duties over to Black tonight in Denver.
At just 3.3 assists/game on the season, this line would normally look too aggressive for Black. But with starter’s minutes — and the plus-money price — I see a prop worth buying in on.
- Black has 4+ assists in nine of his past 11 games, so he’s been knocking on this door rather consistently in recent weeks.
- In that 11-game span, he posted 16 assists across three starts (2-1 vs. this prop).
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Looking just at his past five games, Black has actually been the Magic’s top facilitator — even more than Suggs.
In those games, Black leads the team with 9.2 potential assists/game. Potential assists are any passes that lead directly to a shot.
I’m not sure whether or not this will make a difference, but Black is also in a shooting slump.
He’s 20-for-65 (30.8%) over his past five games. Maybe that poor shooting will further encourage him to dish the rock.
Key stat: Black has at least four assists in five straight games, averaging 5.2 APG in that span.
Best NBA picks
Castle over 6.5 assists (-120): It may not count in his official season stats, but Castle just had 12 assists against the Knicks in the NBA Cup final. That’s the kind of ceiling we’re working with for the second-year player.
After missing nine games, Castle has been back for four and appears to be at full strength. He’s a good bet to put up a big assist total against the Wizards.
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- Washington allows the fourth-most assists to opposing point guards (9.28/game), per Fantasy Pros. The Wizards also allow the most assists per game overall.
- Including the NBA Cup final, Castle is averaging 7.2 APG on the season and has 6+ assists in 11 of 17 games.
Look for the reigning NBA Rookie of the Year to stay active as a passer in a Grade-A matchup.
NBA player prop predictions
Duren 30+ points and rebounds (-103): It’ll be worth monitoring the Dallas Mavericks’ injury report throughout the day to see if Anthony Davis (calf) suits up tonight.
I’m on this prop either way, but it’ll feel safer if the three-time blocks champion sits out for a second consecutive game.
AD was on the shelf when the Mavericks faced the Detroit Pistons early last month, and Duren feasted that night: 33 points and 10 rebounds in 29 minutes.
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Duren is 11-12 vs. this prop this season, but the matchup tonight looks like a good one either way.
Dallas allows the third-most points and fifth-most rebounds to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.
NBA prop picks made at 10 a.m. ET on Dec. 18, 2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.