I’ve got a trio of NBA prop picks from Wednesday night’s doubleheader, featuring two predictions from the Memphis Grizzlies vs. Minnesota Timberwolves game.
Today’s NBA props narrative: The plus-money price on Naz Reid’s 3s prop is worth a look as the big man continues to score in bunches. On the flip side of tonight’s Memphis/Minnesota matchup, Santi Aldama will likely struggle to score against a potent defence.
Check out my top NBA prop picks for Dec 17, featuring Jarrett Allen.
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NBA prop picks Dec. 17
Best bet: Reid over 2.5 threes (+123)
Reid is on fire from 3-point range right now, and he’s facing a team that should help him keep that rolling.
- The Grizzlies allow the fifth-most made 3s (14.5/game) and the sixth-most attempted 3s (39.5/game) in the NBA.
- Reid is 5-1 vs. this prop in December.
On the season, Reid is shooting 39.1% from deep on a career-high 6.2 attempts per game.
That’s not quite as much volume as I’d typically want to see for this prop, but Reid’s volume has been trending up.
-> See full props for Grizzlies vs. Timberwolves!
- First 12 games: 5.2 attempts, 32.3 3PT%, 3-9 vs. this prop
- Last 14 games: 7.1 attempts, 43.4 3PT%, 9-6 vs. this prop
In a favourable matchup, these plus-money odds definitely have my attention.
Key stat: Reid is 4-1 vs. this 3s prop in his past five matchups against the Grizzlies, shooting 19-for-33 (57.6%) from deep in those games.
Best NBA picks
Aldama under 14.5 points (-107): This line seems a bit lofty for Aldama, who’s averaging 13.1 points this season.
That’s a career-high mark for the fifth-year power forward, and it doesn’t rise to the number that’s being asked of him tonight.
-> Full betting markets for Wednesday’s NBA doubleheader!
Against a team with a top-10 defensive rating, I wouldn’t expect Aldama to have an above-average performance. Especially given how he usually fares in this matchup.
The Timberwolves have held Aldama to 8.4 PPG on 37.0% shooting in their past five matchups against him (since January 2024). This under cashed all five times.
This season, Aldama has gone under this point total in 18 of 26 games.
NBA player prop predictions
Allen under 9.5 rebounds (-129): On paper, the Chicago Bulls are a team Allen should dominate on the boards.
After all, they play fast and allow the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres, per Fantasy Pros.
But Allen’s minutes workload and rebounding output are at their lowest since his rookie season nine years ago. And I can’t trust him to hit the 10-rebound mark.
-> Bet on Cavaliers vs. Bulls in Chicago!
- Allen is averaging 7.3 rebounds and 25.9 minutes, which are his lowest marks since 2017-18.
- This under is 12-4 in Allen’s 16 games this season.
- He only had three rebounds in his lone matchup vs. the Bulls (Nov. 8).
Allen is one game removed from a six-game absence due to a finger injury, so it’s also possible that his minutes will be capped against the run-and-gun Bulls.
NBA prop picks made at 12 p.m. ET on Dec. 17, 2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.