We’re at the point in the NFL calendar where some teams are evaluating backups and looking ahead to the offseason, while others are competing for postseason berths and division titles.
The Week 16 narrative: Either way, there are plenty of storylines from the 16-game slate. Among the most important games is Sunday’s matchup between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Detroit Lions, as both teams are walking the tightrope of playoff eligibility.
Check out our staff’s NFL Week 16 ATS picks for predictions on every game.
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NFL Week 16 ATS picks
NorthStar Bets’ Avery Perri, Jordan Horrobin, Spencer Closs, Chris Toman and Steven Psihogios offer up their NFL Week 16 ATS picks for all 16 games.
NFL odds as of 10 a.m. ET on Thursday, Dec. 18, 2025.
Thursday Night Football pick
Rams vs. Seahawks (Thursday, Dec. 18: 8:15 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Seattle -1.5
Horrobin says: It’d be easy to make a case for either team in this marquee matchup, as they both enter with identically glistening records (11-3 SU, 10-4 ATS). I’m going with the Seahawks, who somehow only lost by two vs. L.A. last month despite Sam Darnold’s quartet of interceptions. Davante Adams is very likely out, and the Rams lost as 10.5-point road favourites when they last played outdoors (at Carolina).
Staff picks: Perri (SEA) | Horrobin (SEA) | Closs (SEA) | Toman (LAR) | Psihogios (SEA)
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NFL ATS picks: The Saturday slate
Eagles vs. Commanders (Saturday, Dec. 20: 5:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Philadelphia -6.5
Perri says: It’s win-and-in for the reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles, who are coming off a 31-0 thrashing of the Raiders. That’s the type of performance which should get the ball rolling. Since Philly’s Week 9 bye, the defence has allowed 14.3 PPG while ranking third in EPA per play. Marcus Mariota should be in big trouble with his blindside tackle, Laremy Tunsil, sidelined.
Staff picks: Perri (PHI) | Horrobin (PHI) | Closs (WSH) | Toman (PHI) | Psihogios (WSH)
Packers vs. Bears (Saturday, Dec. 20th: 8:20 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Green Bay -1
Horrobin says: The Packers earned a one-score win at home two weeks ago against the Bears, and I think Chicago is in a great position to return the favour. Micah Parsons is done for the year, while neither Green Bay’s top offensive lineman (Zach Tom) nor its top defensive back (Evan Williams) appears likely to play after exiting last week. Chicago is 5-0 with a +64 point differential in its past five home games.
Staff picks: Perri (CHI) | Horrobin (CHI) | Closs (CHI) | Toman (CHI) | Psihogios (CHI)
NFL ATS picks: The early Sunday slate
Chargers vs. Cowboys (Sunday, Dec. 21: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Dallas -2.5
Perri says: I still think the Cowboys are a good team, even though they won’t be in the dance come January. Few teams can hold a candle to the Dak Prescott-led offence, and that includes the Chargers. CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens have unlocked another gear in the QB, and Justin Herbet hasn’t looked great playing through an injury with a 4:4 TD-to-INT ratio in the last four weeks.
Staff picks: Perri (DAL) | Horrobin (LAC) | Closs (LAC) | Toman (LAC) | Psihogios (DAL)
Vikings vs. Giants (Sunday, Dec. 21: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Minnesota -3
Toman says: The Giants are coming off an eight-point loss to the Commanders, whom the Vikings blanked 31-0 in Week 14. Last week, Minnesota all but eliminated the Cowboys from postseason contention. Recent form isn’t everything, but it matters. And New York has dropped seven straight games by more than three points.
Staff picks: Perri (MIN) | Horrobin (MIN) | Closs (NYG) | Toman (MIN) | Psihogios (MIN)
Bengals vs. Dolphins (Sunday, Dec. 21: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Cincinnati -4.5
Horrobin says: The Dolphins are handing the keys over to seventh-round rookie Quinn Ewers as they slink their way to another failed season. Cincinnati is out of the race, too, but Joe Burrow will remain under centre and should bounce back from a home shutout vs. Baltimore. Prior to last week’s dud, the Bengals had averaged 30.1 PPG over a seven-game span.
Staff picks: Perri (CIN) | Horrobin (CIN) | Closs (MIA) | Toman (CIN) | Psihogios (MIA)
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Buccaneers vs. Panthers (Sunday, Dec. 21: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Tampa Bay -3
Horrobin says: The Buccaneers are slumping hard, and I don’t have it in me to back them on the road against one of the most dangerous underdogs in the NFL. Carolina is 6-5 SU as an underdog this season, pulling off one of the biggest upsets of the year when it last played at home (beating the Rams as a 10.5-point underdog). Tampa is 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS since Week 10.
Staff picks: Perri (CAR) | Horrobin (CAR) | Closs (CAR) | Toman (TB) | Psihogios (TB)
Jets vs. Saints (Sunday, Dec. 21: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: New Orleans -4.5
Perri says: I’m riding the Tyler Shough hype train. The second-round rookie has led the Saints to consecutive underdog wins over divisional opponents and is now favoured for the first time in his career. That makes sense, considering the Jets are starting undrafted rookie Brady Cook and their defence is allowing 29.3 PPG since trading away Sauce Gardner and Quinnen Williams.
Staff picks: Perri (NO) | Horrobin (NO) | Closs (NO) | Toman (NYJ) | Psihogios (NO)
Bills vs. Browns (Sunday, Dec. 21: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Buffalo -10.5
Perri says: I can’t get behind backing Cleveland in any capacity. This is a big number for a team with road struggles, but the Bills have reigning MVP Josh Allen under centre, and the Browns have Shedeur Sanders. On top of that, the Browns’ defence has regressed heavily outside of Myles Garrett. I expect Buffalo to put up at least 25, and I can’t imagine Cleveland keeping up with that number.
Staff picks: Perri (BUF) | Horrobin (CLE) | Closs (BUF) | Toman (BUF) | Psihogios (BUF)
Chiefs vs. Titans (Sunday, Dec. 21: 1:00 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Kansas City -3
Horrobin says: I know the Titans are awful, but it’s somewhat remarkable that the Chiefs continue to lay points… on the road and without Patrick Mahomes, no less. KC is on a six-game ATS losing streak, and it has five outright losses as a favourite in that span. Tennessee is 4-2 ATS in its past six, covering with one-score home losses against the Chargers, Texans and Seahawks in that span.
Staff picks: Perri (TEN) | Horrobin (TEN) | Closs (KC) | Toman (KC) | Psihogios (TEN)
NFL 4 p.m. slate
Falcons vs. Cardinals (Sunday, Dec. 21: 4:05 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Atlanta -2.5
Toman says: There’s maybe only a handful of teams — if that — that I wouldn’t take to beat the Cardinals by a field goal. Arizona is getting throttled on a weekly basis, losing six straight, four of them by 19-plus points. Atlanta has its own problems, but Kirk Cousins is coming off a monster game and has two legit playmakers (Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts) to lean on.
Staff picks: Perri (ATL) | Horrobin (ATL) | Closs (ARI) | Toman (ATL) | Psihogios (ATL)
Jaguars vs. Broncos (Sunday, Dec. 21: 4:05 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Denver -3
Horrobin says: Denver is the only remaining unbeaten team at home, going 7-0 with a +9.7 average victory margin. The Broncos battled back as home dogs to beat the Packers last week, and now they welcome a Jags squad that has beaten up on lesser competition recently. Jacksonville is 3-3 SU (3-3 ATS) against teams currently inside the playoff picture and is 7-1 SU (6-1-1 ATS) against the rest.
Staff picks: Perri (JAX) | Horrobin (DEN) | Closs (DEN) | Toman (JAX) | Psihogios (JAX)
Raiders vs. Texans (Sunday, Dec. 21: 4:25 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Houston -14
Perri says: Houston was already a Super Bowl contender thanks to its top-five defence, and now looks like one of the favourites with C.J. Stroud and the offence finding its form. The Texans are on a six-game heater, beating some really solid teams (Chiefs, Bills, Jaguars). Now, they get to play the league’s worst scoring offence with Kenny Pickett under centre. This should be a blowout.
Staff picks: Perri (HOU) | Horrobin (HOU) | Closs (LV) | Toman (HOU) | Psihogios (HOU)
Steelers vs. Lions (Sunday, Dec. 21: 4:25 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Detroit -7
Perri says: Aaron Rodgers has supplied Lions fans with enough misery for one lifetime, and can twist the knife yet again. I’m confident Pittsburgh’s offence can score enough to cover against an injured Detroit defence, allowing an average 32.3 PPG in its last four. On the other side, the return of Derrick Harmon should solidify Pittsburgh’s run-stopping defence. The Steelers are allowing just 96.0 rushing yards/game when the game-changing rookie is in the lineup.
Staff picks: Perri (PIT) | Horrobin (PIT) | Closs (DET) | Toman (DET) | Psihogios (DET)
Sunday and Monday Night NFL Week 16 ATS picks
Patriots vs. Ravens (Sunday, Dec. 21: 8:20 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: Baltimore -3
Horrobin says: Blowing a 21-point lead last week wasn’t great, but I’m still impressed overall with what the Patriots have been up to. They’d won 10 in a row before that, including road underdog victories in Tampa Bay and Buffalo. I’ll happily bank a field goal with the Pats against a Baltimore squad that is just 3-5 at home with a -28 point differential.
Staff picks: Perri (NE) | Horrobin (NE) | Closs (NE) | Toman (NE) | Psihogios (NE)
49ers vs. Colts (Monday, Dec. 22: 8:15 p.m. ET)
NorthStar Bets line: San Francisco -6
Perri says: Philip Rivers starting in 2025 is a good story, but is it good for the Colts? I don’t think so. The 44-year-old looked his age last week against the Seahawks, lacking mobility and zip on his throws. San Fran’s offence is rounding into form, averaging 31.0 PPG during the team’s four-game winning streak. I expect that unit to torch.
Staff picks: Perri (SF) | Horrobin (SF) | Closs (IND) | Toman (SF) | Psihogios (SF)
NFL ATS picks: Week 15 + season records
- Toman: 7-8-1 (107-110-7)
- Closs: 6-9-1 (106-111-7)
- Psihogios: 6-9-1 (106-111-7)
- Perri: 5-10-1 (99-118-7)
- Horrobin: 6-9-1 (98-119-7)
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