The Toronto Raptors face the Miami Heat for the first time this season in hopes of turning their fortunes around.
The latest: Toronto has dropped six of its past seven games to slide into the mediocre middle of the Eastern Conference’s playoff picture. But Miami has dropped five of six, so one team is destined to snap out of a slump on Monday night.
Check out my Raptors vs. Heat prop bets for the Dec. 15 game at Kaseya Center, featuring predictions on Brandon Ingram and Immanuel Quickley.
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Raptors vs. Heat prop bets
Best bet: Ingram over 22.5 points (-118)
After years of being a methodical, muck-it-up NBA team, the Heat are playing at by far the quickest pace in the NBA. As long as they keep that up, I expect Ingram to have the necessary opportunities to cash this bet.
- For context, Miami ranked 27th in possessions per 48 minutes last year, averaging 97.08. This season, the Heat are No. 1 at 105.30 possessions.
- As you’d expect, more possessions have led to more scoring. Miami is allowing 118.2 points per game this year (22nd), compared to 110.0 PPG last year (seventh).
In his first healthy season for the Raptors, Ingram has embraced the role of their go-to shooter. He’s averaging team highs in points (21.5), field goal attempts (17.0) and free throw attempts (4.9).
That scoring average falls a tick below what is being asked of him tonight, but I’m hoping a high-possession game takes care of that.
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Especially with RJ Barrett (knee) still sidelined. Barrett is one of three Raptors averaging north of 19.0 points this season, so his absence really matters.
In nine games without Barrett, Ingram is averaging 23.1 PPG. And he hit the 30-point threshold in back-to-back games entering tonight.
Key stat: Miami allows the fifth-most PPG to opposing small forwards (24.66), per Fantasy Pros.
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Raptors picks and predictions
Quickley over 6.5 assists (+100): Some Quickley-to-Ingram buckets would be ideal, contributing to both of my predictions. At even money, IQ is worth a look in this matchup.
At 6.2 assists per game, Quickley is the leader of a team that treats playmaking as a by-committee task.
Barrett (3.8 APG) is a contributing member of that group when healthy, and Quickley has upped his game a bit in Barrett’s absence.
- Without Barrett (8 games): 6.6 APG, 12.0 potential assists/game, 4-4 vs. this prop
- With Barrett (17 games): 6.0 APG, 9.9 potential assists/game, 7-10 vs. this prop
-> Bet on Quickley & Ingram tonight!
Note that potential assists are any passes that lead directly to shots. So Quickley is averaging about two additional assist opportunities sans Barrett.
Miami allows an NBA-high 9.6 APG to opposing point guards, which is another reason to buy in on Monday.
Raptors vs. Heat prop bets made at 9:25 a.m. ET on Dec. 15, 2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.