In the final NBA Cup matchup of the quarterfinals, the Los Angeles Lakers host the San Antonio Spurs on Wednesday night.
The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama will miss his 12th consecutive game for the Spurs, whose defence has unsurprisingly taken a big hit in his absence. With him on the court in a matchup on Nov. 5, the Lakers beat the Spurs at home, 118-116.
Check out my +325 Spurs vs. Lakers SGP predictions for Dec. 10, featuring prop bets on De’Aaron Fox and Austin Reaves.
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Spurs vs. Lakers SGP
Parlay: Reaves over 23.5 points | Fox over 23.5 points | Over 232.5 (+325)
Reaves over 23.5 points (-112): When Luka Doncic is out, Reaves has the chance to go nuclear. But even when both players are manning the backcourt, this is a total Reaves tends to crest.
- Across all games this season, Reaves is averaging 28.4 points and is 15-5 vs. this points prop.
- With Doncic on the floor, Reaves is averaging 24.5 PPG and is 10-5 vs. this prop.
Doncic runs the show on offence, but Reaves is still putting up 15-plus shots most nights when they’re out there together.
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Also, Reaves is shooting 87.4% from the free-throw line, where he’s averaging a career-high 9.6 attempts per game.
There’s clearly a concerted effort to get to the line, given that he averaged just 3.6 free-throw attempts in his first four seasons.
Add in the fact that Reaves is attempting a career-high 7.7 threes per game, and we’re looking at a player who’s consistently putting up high-quality shots.
NBA SGP legs
Fox over 23.5 points (+100): When Wembanyama is out, Fox has a chance to put up a big point total. He’s proven it many times over in recent weeks, and I like this price to bet on him doing it again.
- Fox has scored 25+ points in nine of 11 games without Wemby this season.
- In that span, Fox has posted 48.2/39.4/83.5 shooting splits. He’s averaging a healthy volume of shots from 3-point land (6.5 attempts/game) and the free-throw line (7.2).
-> Wager on Reaves & Fox to get buckets!
Fox is set to play the Lakers for the first time as a Spur, but he did face them four times last winter while with the Sacramento Kings. In those games, Fox went 4-0 vs. this point total and posted 28.5 PPG.
Over 232.5 points (-200): I’m picking two players to clear their points props, so backing the over for the game makes sense, right?
This trimmed-down total looks good to me, given how often these teams tend to clear it.
Since the start of the 2023-24 season, the Spurs and Lakers have cashed this over in six of eight head-to-head matchups.
Without Wemby, the two-time reigning blocks champ and heavy Defensive Player of the Year favourite before his injury, it makes sense that the Spurs have had some defensive lapses.
They were sixth in defensive rating before his injury, and they’re 21st in the games since then. The average point total in San Antonio’s past six games is 249.5 points.
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Then you have the Lakers, who’ve been the most overs-friendly team in the NBA (16-7-0, 69.6%), per Team Rankings.
Neither team tends to play at a lightning-quick pace, but expect tons of scoring in this one.
Spurs vs. Lakers predictions made at 10:55 a.m. ET on Dec. 10, 2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.