A titanic matchup between Real Madrid and Manchester City headlines Wednesday’s Champions League fixtures.
The pregame narrative: Erling Haaland and Kylian Mbappe are both scoring at a historic pace, but the latter might be sidelined after missing Tuesday’s training with leg discomfort. Haaland is suiting up, though, and I like his chances of scoring in Madrid.
Check out my best Champions League Matchday 6 picks for Dec. 10.
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Champions League Matchday 6 picks
Best bet: Haaland to score (-125)
Haaland is putting up video-game-like numbers this year, but what else is new?
- 15 goals in 15 Premier League games
- 5 goals in 5 Champions League games
- 13 goals in 5 World Cup qualifier games
The Norwegian striker is on a bit of a cold streak right now, with just one goal in his last four starts across all competitions. But it hasn’t been for a lack of effort.
Haaland generated 3.2 xG in those four meetings, per FBRef, while taking 12 shots.
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He ranks in the 96th percentile for non-penalty goals per 90 and in the 95th percentile for non-penalty xG per 90, compared to positional peers in the Men’s Big 5 Leagues, UCL and UEL over the last year.
Oh, and he takes penalties as well.
Real Madrid missed out on hardware last year because of its defensive structure, and it has struggled to keep the ball out of their net lately.
Xabi Alonso’s squad suffered a shock 2-0 loss to Celta Vigo in La Liga on Sunday, and gave up three goals in a win over Olympiacos in its last UCL fixture.
Overall, Real has conceded eight goals in its last five games.
Key stat: Haaland has scored 13 goals in his last 14 UCL games.
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Club Brugge vs. Arsenal best bet
Arsenal half-time/full-time (-115): The Gunners have begun the annual tradition of dwindling their Premier League lead after picking up just three points in their last three domestic fixtures.
Man City is now right on its tail heading into Christmas. But Arsenal still tops the UCL table with a perfect 5-0-0 record and a tournament-best +13 goal differential.
It ranks second in FotMob match rating (7.30), has four clean sheets, and has only conceded once all tournament.
Mikel Arteta’s squad is levels clear of Club Brugge, which sits 27th out of 36 teams in this competition and holds a 1-1-3 record.
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This should be a start-to-finish rout for the North London club.
Champions League Matchday 6 picks at 2:30 p.m. on Dec. 9, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.