The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans close out Sunday’s NFL slate with a playoff-like matchup at Arrowhead Stadium.
The pregame narrative: Kansas City desperately needs a win to stay in the postseason hunt, and is a slight home favourite tonight. The Texans have won four straight games and look to exact some revenge after the Chiefs eliminated them in the postseason last year.
Check out my Texans vs. Chiefs SGP predictions for Dec. 7, featuring Patrick Mahomes and Nico Collins.
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Texans vs. Chiefs SGP
SGP: Chiefs +6.5 | Mahomes under 1.5 passing TDs | Collins 60+ receiving yards (+320)
Chiefs +6.5 (-530): This is the worst version of the Chiefs we’ve seen with Mahomes at the helm, but that doesn’t mean they’re a pushover.
Kansas City is 6-6 with wins over the Detroit Lions and Baltimore Ravens. Its losses have been by a combined 25 points, and it has covered this spread in all but one game (Week 9 at Buffalo).
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Mahomes is still a baller, and the defence is still capable of stifling opponents, especially at home. That’s bad news for Stroud, who has historically struggled on the road:
- KC is allowing 14.0 PPG in its six games at Arrowhead Stadium.
- Houston is 10-11 on the road while averaging 20.4 PPG with Stroud starting.
The Texans went into Arrowhead twice last year and lost, scoring 15 and 19 points in the defeats. I expect the Chiefs to win a gritty, defensively-minded battle.
Sunday Night Football SGP picks
Mahomes under 1.5 passing TDs (-130): I just explained why Kansas City has a good shot to win this game, but allow me to put some respect on Houston’s defence.
The Texans are allowing the fewest yards (265.7) and points (16.5) per game and rank first in RBSDM.com’s EPA per play.
And the most impressive part is they wreak havoc while rarely blitzing and disguising coverages:
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Simply put, DeMeco Ryans has a bunch of dogs lining up on that side of the ball.
Mahomes has had a hyper-efficient year and is coming off a four-touchdown game. But he threw just one TD in the three games prior, and should struggle against the Texans.
Houston is allowing just 1.0 passing TD per game (second-fewest in the NFL).
Collins 60+ receiving yards (-159): Lastly, I’m betting on Collins to reach a modest receiving milestone.
The sixth-year wideout is on a nice five-game stretch, doing most of this damage with Davis Mills at the helm:
- 91.2 yards/game
- 6.2 catches/game
- 9.8 targets/game
Collins caught 5-of-10 passes for 98 yards in Stroud’s return last week and should see a similar workload tonight.
This mark is well within reach, even with Stroud’s road struggles and KC’s solid defence.
Remember, we’re talking about a guy who’s averaged 78.3 receiving yards over the last two seasons.
Texans vs. Chiefs predictions made at 11:15 a.m. ET on Dec. 7, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.