The Toronto Maple Leafs’ six-game road trip ends in Raleigh with a Thursday night showdown against the Carolina Hurricanes.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is a +170 underdog as both teams search for a third straight win. The Maple Leafs have gotten solid goaltending lately out of Joseph Woll, who is expected to start tonight. At the time of writing, it’s unclear who will be in goal for the Hurricanes.
Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes SGP predictions on Dec. 4, with prop bets on Seth Jarvis and William Nylander.
-> Join NorthStar Bets to start betting on the NHL
Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes SGP
Parlay: Hurricanes 60-min ML | Jarvis 1+ points | Nylander 1+ points (+310)
Hurricanes 60-minute moneyline (-121): I would love to see Brandon Bussi between the pipes for Carolina. The 27-year-old rookie is 7-1-0 with a 2.11 GAA and has cashed this bet in 62.5% of his starts.
But the Hurricanes should still dominate the Leafs even if they start an out-of-form Frederik Anderson.
-> Bet on Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes at NorthStar Bets!
You have to scroll down the page on the league-wide standings to see the gap between No. 5 Carolina (16-7-2) and No. 25 Toronto (12-11-3).
And the analytics confirm the eye test.
Corsi is an advanced statistic provided by Natural Stat Trick, which measures shot attempt differential, and these teams are on the complete opposite ends of the spectrum.
- Carolina: 1st in Corsi rate (60.12%)
- Toronto: 31st in Corsi rate (45.76%)
In October, the Hurricanes beat the Leafs, 5-4, while out-shooting them 47-20 and generating 71.77% of chances. The xG in that matchup was 5.09 to 2.23.
Nothing Toronto has done lately shows it is capable of hanging with a team like Carolina.
Other NHL predictions
Jarvis to score 1+ points (-190): Jarvis was a surprise addition to Canada’s 4 Nations squad last year, and he seems like a lock for Milan — assuming the stadium gets built.
The 23-year-old winger has 15 goals (10th in NHL) and 22 points in 25 games.
That puts him on pace to break his career highs in both categories, and the shocking part is that he only has one power-play point so far.
-> Don’t miss out — make your own SGP here!
Jarvis had at least 19 PP points in each of the last two seasons, so bettors should expect some positive regression there.
But I’m confident he can get the job done at even strength tonight, given Toronto’s defensive deficiencies.
Nylander to score 1+ points (-225): This leg massively boosts the parlay’s payout from +128 to +310 thanks to some negative correlation.
Nylander is on pace for his first 100-point campaign and ranks 10th in points (32) despite missing four games due to injury/illness.
The winger was held off the stat sheet on Tuesday against the Florida Panthers, but he’d logged a point in 17 of 18 games before that. Toronto lost 10 of those contests, including seven in regulation.
Maple Leafs vs. Hurricanes SGP made at 9:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 4, 2025.
-> Sign up to NorthStar Bets today!
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.