Thursday’s matchup between the Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions could very well seal the loser’s postseason fate.
The pregame narrative: Dallas (6-5-1) and Detroit (7-5) sit outside of the postseason picture heading into Week 14. A loss would drop the Cowboys’ playoff chances to 9% and the Lions to 12%, according to The Athletic. Dallas has won three straight following its bye, but is a 3-point road underdog on TNF.
Check out my Cowboys vs. Lions SGP predictions for Dec. 4, featuring CeeDee Lamb and Jahmyr Gibbs.
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Cowboys vs. Lions predictions
SGP: Cowboys moneyline | Lamb 60+ receiving yards | Gibbs 30+ receiving yards (+340)
Cowboys moneyline (+145): I think the Cowboys are a legitimate Super Bowl contender, and placed a future on them to win it all at +6,000 earlier this week.
Dallas’ margin for error has been razor-thin, but pressure creates diamonds, as they say.
Brian Schottenheimer’s group just beat the reigning AFC and NFC champions in consecutive weeks by a combined score of 55-49.
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We all know the offence will perform. Dak Prescott is playing MVP-calibre football, the line is getting push, and George Pickens and Lamb are unquestionably the best WR tandem in the sport.
But the defence is what’s impressed me lately.
The unit looks revitalized after trading for Quinnen Williams and Logan Wilson, and getting some big names back from injury (DeMarvion Overshown, Donovan Wilson).
Detroit is missing Sam LaPorta and is unlikely to have Amon-Ra St. Brown in the mix. On top of that, four-fifths of the team’s offensive line is on the injury report.
I expect Dallas’ top-five scoring offence to outperform Detroit’s hobbled unit in primetime.
Thursday Night Football SGP picks
Lamb 60+ receiving yards (-275): The Lamb/Pickens tandem isn’t a Batman and Robin situation. If anything, Dallas has two Batmans tormenting opposing secondaries.
You could make a good argument for either wideout to hit this milestone, but I want to key in on Lamb, who has been remarkably consistent over eight full games (averages not including Week 3 when Lamb left in the first quarter with an injury):
- 93.0 yards/game
- 10.1 targets/game
- 60+ receiving yards in 8 games
- 70+ receiving yards in 7 games
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Lamb caught seven of nine targets for 112 yards and a score last week against the Kansas City Chiefs.
He shouldn’t have a problem reaching half of that mark against Detroit’s secondary.
Lions corners have allowed a 91.6 passer rating to opposing QBs, which ranks in the 16th percentile, according to RotoWire.
Gibbs 30+ receiving yards (-200): I think Gibbs will make noise on Thursday, but not on the ground.
- Dallas’ defence ranks 10th in EPA per rush and seventh in rush success rate since its bye week, per RBSDM.com.
- The Cowboys’ secondary is still iffy and has given up the third-most receiving yards to RBs this year (536).
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Gibbs is an electric playmaker in space, and Dan Campbell should aim to get him more looks as a pass catcher with LaPorta and St. Brown injured.
The speedy tailback is averaging 36.1 receiving yards per game and is 7-4 against this milestone.
Cowboys vs. Lions predictions made at 1:30 p.m. ET on Dec. 3, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.