The Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers meet on Tuesday night for the first time this season, with both teams needing a win.
The pregame narrative: Toronto and Florida sit 16th and 15th in the Eastern Conference entering play on Dec. 2. Both teams are only six points out of a playoff spot, though, meaning there’s plenty of time to turn things around. The Panthers are slight home favourites after dropping their last two games.
Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Panthers SGP predictions on Dec. 2, featuring Matthew Knies and Sam Bennett.
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Maple Leafs vs. Panthers SGP
Parlay: Panthers ML | Bennett 1+ points | Knies 1+ points (+370)
Panthers moneyline (-157): Florida has proven that it can beat Toronto when it matters.
The Panthers eliminated the Leafs from the playoffs last season en route to a second consecutive Stanley Cup title. And two years prior, they beat Toronto in five games.
This isn’t the playoffs, but both teams will be playing with an air of desperation. I trust Florida to get the job done at home even without Matthew Tkachuk and Alexander Barkov.
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Why? Simply put, the Panthers are playing much better hockey.
Corsi rate (an advanced statistic provided by Natural Stat Trick, which measures shot attempt differential) tells the story:
- Florida: 3rd in Corsi rate (53.53%)
- Toronto: 31st in Corsi rate (45.64%)
Toronto did beat the Pittsburgh Penguins 7-2 on the weekend … while being outshot 35-23. That was a somewhat lucky result, and it marked the Leafs’ first regulation win in 11 games.
Florida should win comfortably tonight.
Other NHL predictions
Bennett to score 1+ points (-113): Bennett is built for the postseason, and has a Conn Smythe trophy to prove it, but he’s on a nice little run right now.
He had just five points through the first 18 games of the season. Since then, he’s logged seven points and is 5-1 against this line.
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Playing Toronto in its current form means every player will have opportunities to generate chances.
Bennett centres Florida’s third line with Carter Verhaeghe and A.J. Greer. That trio has been rolling lately, generating a 59.54% Corsi rate together at 5-on-5.
Knies to score 1+ points (-157): Knies has been a bright spot on the Maple Leafs, logging 26 points in 22 games.
He registered two assists on Saturday and is now 11-3 against this line in his last 14 games. In that span, he has 17 points and four goals.
Knies is riding shotgun with Auston Matthews, who is still producing at a solid clip despite an injury absence.
The captain had five goals and nine points in November (nine games), and is -235 to find the stat sheet tonight.
Knies and Matthews both play on the top line and PP1, making the former a better value play in my eyes.
Maple Leafs vs. Panthers SGP made at 10:30 a.m. ET on Dec. 2, 2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.