Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills kick off NFL Week 12 action with a Thursday Night Football date in Houston.
The pregame narrative: The Texans, who likely won’t have C.J. Stroud available, are 6-point home underdogs against the Bills. Buffalo has lost two of four games this year as a road favourite.
Check out my Bills vs. Texans SGP predictions for Nov. 20, featuring Allen and Woody Marks.
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Bills vs. Texans predictions
SGP: Allen under 224.5 pass yards | Marks over 60.5 rush yards | Under 47.5 points (+320)
Allen under 224.5 passing yards (-118): Coming off Allen’s epic performance last week, I get that it might be difficult to sell anyone on taking an under with him. But let’s show some respect to the Texans’ defence.
- Houston ranks No. 1 in yards and points allowed this season.
- The Texans have allowed the third-fewest passing yards and are tied for the third-most interceptions (10 in 10 games).
- According to RBSDM.com, Houston’s pass defence ranks No. 1 in EPA per dropback and No. 2 in success rate.
-> Bet on Buffalo vs. Houston on TNF
Yes, Allen had six total TDs last week and has now thrown for 300 yards in back-to-back games. But now he’s facing the toughest defence in the league — and on the road, no less.
Allen has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in three of four road games this year.
Thursday Night Football SGP picks
Marks over 60.5 rushing yards (-118): Marks squandered a juicy matchup last week against the Tennessee Titans, but he’s got an even juicier matchup on Thursday.
The Bills’ run defence is among the very worst in the NFL:
- 32nd in rushing TDs (17)
- 31st in yards per game (153.0)
- 31st in yards per rush (5.4)
- 30th in EPA per rush
-> Build your own SGP featuring Allen and Marks here!
Do I love that Marks only produced 44 rushing yards last week on 18 carries? No, but I am encouraged by that workload, which was a season-high.
Meanwhile, Texans backup Nick Chubb had a season-low three rush attempts.
Marks now has 32 carries in the two games started by Davis Mills, who’s expected to be under centre again Thursday. If Marks is back in that 15-carry range, he should cash this bet.
Under 47.5 points (-200): The venue for Thursday’s game matters, as the Bills haven’t been nearly as potent on the road.
Check out their home/road splits so far:
- Home (six games): 32.5 PPG, 399.0 yards/game
- Road (four games): 24.3 PPG, 370.0 yards/game
Another way to illustrate the chasm is through Josh Allen’s passer rating, which is 115.9 at home and 88.3 on the road.
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Remember, the Texans’ defence is No. 1 in the NFL in both points and yards allowed. And the fact that this game is in Houston means points should be at an even greater premium for the Bills.
Unders are 3-1-1 in Houston’s home games this year. The average total in those matchups has been 40.8 points.
Bills vs. Texans predictions made at 2:25 p.m. ET 11/19/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.