I’m dialling up four NBA prop picks for Friday’s packed 11-game slate.
Tonight’s NBA prop narrative: There’s plenty to choose from, but I’ve landed on two plus-money plays, dependable Canadian Andrew Wiggins, and Detroit Pistons big man Jalen Duren, who’s my best bet in a juicy matchup vs. the dreadful Brooklyn Nets.
Check out my favourite NBA prop picks for Nov. 7, featuring predictions on Dallas Mavericks teammates Cooper Flagg and P.J. Washington.
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NBA prop picks Nov. 7
Best bet: Duren over 28.5 points/rebounds (-125)
The Nets are at the bottom of the Eastern Conference with a 1-7 record.
Detroit is a 10.5-point road favourite, so this game isn’t expected to be competitive. But Duren should feast while he’s on the court and power the Pistons to a comfortable victory.
- Brooklyn is giving up 124.5 points per game, ranking last in the NBA in defensive rating.
- Only two teams are getting scored on more in the paint, and only two have a lower rebounding rate, making Brooklyn susceptible to big men who crash the boards and can finish.
- The Nets surrender the fifth-most points to centres, per Betting Pros.
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Duren enters averaging a career-best 17.9 points. He does his damage close to the basket, ranking just outside the top 10 in PPG in the paint.
His high-efficiency shots have led to a 61.9% mark from the field, and he’s been excellent from the line (83%).
The 6-foot-10 centre is coming off a monster 22-point, 22-rebound effort, propelling him to seventh in the NBA in RPG.
Key stat: Duren has topped this line in four of his last six games.
NBA player prop predictions
Wiggins over 1.5 threes (-137): The Charlotte Hornets are getting killed on the outside, allowing 15 triples per game on nearly 40% shooting.
They are among the worst perimeter defenders in the league. A strong 3-point shooting team like the Miami Heat should tee up from long range.
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Norman Powell is the best of the bunch, but Wiggins is another threat who’s shooting efficiently.
- The Canadian has nailed multiple triples in four of his last five games.
- Wiggins has never been a high-volume shooter from deep, but he’s dependable, converting at a 38.1% clip since the 2020-21 season.
- Through eight games, he’s connected on 38.9% of his 3-balls.
Miami will be without starting centre and second-leading scorer Bam Adebayo (foot), which should create more usage for Wiggins.
Mavericks predictions vs. Grizzlies
Flagg over 7.5 rebounds (+110): The Memphis Grizzlies are a mess, but the Mavericks are down Anthony Davis, creating potential for a close game and heavy minutes for the starters.
Flagg has been getting plenty of run, logging 34-plus minutes in four straight. The more he’s out there, the more chances he’ll have to contribute on the glass.
-> Bet on No. 1 overall pick Cooper Flagg on Friday night
He has cleared this line three times in his last four games and also corralled 10 rebounds in his NBA debut.
Dallas has the worst rebounding rate in the NBA, but someone has to pick up the slack sans Davis, and Flagg and Washington have been doing just that.
Washington to double-double (+117): The 27-year-old has double-doubled in two straight games, both without Davis.
And he has several other near-misses this season.
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- Oct. 29 vs. Pacers: 9 pts, 11 rebs
- Oct. 27 vs. Thunder: 15 pts, 9 rebs
- Oct. 24 vs. Wizards: 18 pts, 9 rebs
In three games without Davis, Washington has logged 36-38 minutes, averaging 16.7 points and 9.3 rebounds.
The Grizzlies are allowing the third-most points per game in the NBA, leading to scoring upside for Washington, who has dropped 15-plus in six of his eight contests.
Washington is averaging career highs in points and rebounds and getting to the line more than ever before (4.9 attempts/game).
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Chris joined NorthStar Gaming from Covers.com where he was a publishing editor and wrote betting content. Before that, he was the sports editor at VICE Canada, worked for theScore and covered the Blue Jays for MLB.com. In addition to filling out the lineup card each day for the editorial team, Chris writes frequently himself, primarily on the NBA and MLB.