For the second time in the season’s first three weeks, the Toronto Raptors are in Atlanta to face the Hawks.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has responded with three straight wins after four straight losses to get back to .500. The Raptors opened their season with a dominant win in Atlanta, and now they’ll face that squad again — but this time, without Trae Young.
Check out my Raptors vs. Hawks SGP, featuring picks on Jalen Johnson and Jamal Shead.
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Raptors vs. Hawks SGP predictions
Parlay: Raptors moneyline | Johnson under 1.5 threes | Shead over 3.5 assists (+475)
Raptors moneyline (+104): Toronto dominated in its season opener against Atlanta, winning by 20 points while boasting a +20 rebound advantage.
It’s surprising — and impressive — that Toronto was able to win by such a significant margin despite shooting just 6-for-25 (24.0%) from deep and sending the Hawks to the free throw line 37 times.
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Young was 11-for-13 from the line and matched a team-high with 22 points, and he won’t be in tonight’s rematch. Advantage, Toronto.
The Raptors are modest underdogs, and I expect them to run it back with a win of some kind. They’re rolling off three straight wins, and they’ve dominated a full-strength Hawks team already.
Toronto has a +2.4 net rating so far, while Atlanta’s net rating sits at -0.9.
NBA SGP legs
Johnson under 1.5 threes (-150): Johnson is scoring more than ever before, and he’s doing so at a career-best efficiency. But the production isn’t coming from beyond the arc.
- Through seven games, Johnson is averaging 20.6 PPG on 58.0% shooting.
- His free-throw attempts and 2-point attempts are up, while his 3-point attempts (2.1/game) are lower than either of the two previous seasons.
Johnson has yet to attempt more than three 3s in a matchup this season, and this under is 7-0.
On opening night, Johnson scored 22 points on 13 shots vs. Toronto, but he was 0-for-2 from deep. This prop is playable as a standalone, even with all the extra juice.
Shead over 3.5 assists (-134): Again, there’s some extra juice on this prop, but I think this one is very playable as a standalone.
Shead comes off the bench for the Raptors and typically plays fewer than 20 minutes per game. But when he’s out there, the objective is to tee up his teammates for buckets.
- Despite being a bench player, Shead leads the Raptors in potential assists per game (10.9), which denotes the quantity of passes that lead directly to a shot.
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- He’s averaging 5.4 APG through eight games and is 8-0 vs. this prop.
In Shead’s first go-round against Atlanta, he chipped in 10 points and five assists off the bench in 19 minutes.
Raptors vs. Hawks SGP made at 9:30 a.m. ET 11/07/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.