Two of the most exciting stars in the NBA will meet tonight, as Luka Doncic’s Los Angeles Lakers host Victor Wembanyama’s San Antonio Spurs.
The latest: Doncic has scored 40+ points in three of four games so far and will once again headline a Lakers squad that’s missing LeBron James. Wembanyama, meanwhile, has played as a more traditional big this season but could opt to attack the Lakers from deep.
Check out my Spurs vs. Lakers picks for Wednesday, Nov. 5, featuring Julian Champagnie.
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Spurs vs. Lakers picks
Best bet: Doncic under 33.5 points (-124)
Doncic has been on fire through four games, and I get that NBA fans (and bettors) might not want this run to end.
But that’s not how life works, and even a guy like Doncic isn’t going to average 41.3 points per game for a season.
Tonight’s matchup against San Antonio is a logical come-back-to-Earth game. The Spurs’ defence has been elite in the first couple of weeks:
- 1st in PPG
- 2nd in defensive rating
- 2nd in defensive rebound rate
- 3rd in blocks
- 4th in opponent FG%
Wembanyama, who leads the NBA in defensive rebounds and blocks per game, is certainly the key cog in all of this. But defence is played collectively, so I still think Doncic will be challenged even if he tries to dodge the Spurs’ 7-foot-4 superstar.
-> Check out tonight’s Spurs vs. Lakers prop markets
Also, avoiding Wembanyama in the offensive halfcourt is a lot easier said than done.
Wemby is staying home in the paint a lot more now than in past years, and with his length, that means he can challenge anything inside the perimeter on a consistent basis.
Doncic attempts 40% of his shots from mid-range, per Cleaning The Glass, which ranks in the 65th percentile. The Spurs allow the sixth-lowest FG% on mid-range shots.
Key stat: Doncic failed to hit the 30-point mark in any of his three matchups vs. the Spurs last season (and Wemby only played in one of those games).
-> Wager on Wednesday’s 11-game NBA slate
Wembanyama prop prediction
Wembanyama over 1.5 threes (-112): Wembanyama averaged 3.1 threes last year on a whopping 8.8 attempts. When he’s given the green light, he’s happy to let it fly.
His 3-point volume has been drastically scaled back this year (3.5 attempts/game), but I still think it’s too early to put a ton of stock into that.
-> Bet on Doncic and Wemby in Los Angeles!
Do I expect Wembanyama to return to nearly nine 3s attempted on a nightly basis? Certainly not. But somewhere in the range of five or six 3s wouldn’t surprise me.
- Wembanyama has attempted 5+ threes in three of his past four games.
- As a rookie in 2023-24, he averaged 5.5 attempted 3s per night.
Wembanyama went 2-0 vs. this prop against L.A. last year, and this year’s Lakers are yielding the seventh-most attempted 3s per game.
Champagnie over 1.5 threes (-106): Though he’s not a household name like Wembanyama, Champagnie comes in at almost the same price for the same prop market. Count me in.
- The undrafted wing attempts corner 3s on 41% of his shots, which is the highest rate in the NBA.
- L.A. allows the seventh-highest 3PT% on corner 3s (41.0%).
Last season, Champagnie went 3-1 vs. this prop when facing the Lakers. He averaged 6.5 attempted 3s per game.
He hasn’t gotten off to a great start from beyond the arc, mind you, but the 24-year-old has attempted at least four 3-pointers in four of his past five games.
Spurs vs. Lakers picks made at 9:36 a.m. ET on 11/05/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.