Sunday’s NBA slate wraps up in Los Angeles when the Lakers host the Miami Heat.
The pregame narrative: Los Angeles has been rolling without LeBron James largely thanks to the stellar play of Luka Doncic and Austin Reaves. The Lakers are favoured at home tonight against a 3-2 Heat squad beginning a California road trip.
Check out my Heat vs. Lakers SGP predictions for Nov. 2, featuring Reaves and Jaime Jaquez Jr.
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Heat vs. Lakers predictions
Parlay: Lakers moneyline | Reaves 6+ assists | Jaquez under 12.5 points (+310)
Lakers moneyline (-195): Los Angeles is missing LeBron, but Doncic is the new sheriff in town.
The Slovenian superstar is averaging 45.3 points, 11.7 rebounds, and 7.7 assists in three games. Granted, it’s only three games, but Doncic’s offensive ceiling is among the highest in basketball.
With him and Reaves — who is averaging 32.0 PPG — leading the back court, I’m confident backing Los Angeles against most teams.
That’s especially true at home. The Lakers went 32-12 at Crypto.com Arena last year, which was tied for the third-best mark in basketball.
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Miami has started strong without its top scorer, Tyler Herro, but it feels overmatched here.
NBA SGP legs
Reaves 6+ assists (-167): Reaves went on a monster three-game heater when Doncic was sidelined, scoring 51 and 41 points, and netting a buzzer-beater in a 28-point outing against the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Backing him as a scorer might seem tempting, but he takes far fewer shots when Doncic is in the lineup.
- With Doncic: 15.0 FGA/game
- Without Doncic: 22.6 FGA/game
Reaves averaged 8.0 assists in the three games with Doncic playing, and is 4-2 against this line on the season.
He’s playing a ton of minutes and should primarily be a facilitator this evening.
-> Bet on Reaves on Sunday night
Jaquez under 12.5 points (-125): Jaquez is off to a red-hot start with Miami.
The third-year guard is averaging 16.2 points, 6.6 rebounds and 4.2 assists coming off the bench while shooting 62.3% at the field.
But I have good reason to fade him tonight.
Jaquez does the vast majority of his damage at the rim or in the short mid-range. Those are two areas of the court that Los Angeles defends very well, thanks to the acquisition of DeAndre Ayton.
The Lakers have the 10th-best rim defence and 11th-best short mid-range defence, per Cleaning the Glass.
Heat vs. Lakers predictions made at 3:30 p.m. ET 11/01/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.