The Detroit Pistons and Dallas Mavericks are in Mexico City on Saturday for a late-night tip-off.
The pregame narrative: Both teams have played some pretty low-scoring basketball to this point, and I think they’re on a collision course for another defensive struggle tonight. Cooper Flagg is off to a bumpy start and is worth fading as a passer.
Check out my Mavericks vs. Pistons SGP predictions for Nov. 1, featuring a prediction on Cade Cunningham.
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Mavericks vs. Pistons predictions
Parlay: Flagg under 3.5 assists | Cunningham 20+ points | Under 232.5 points (+320)
Flagg under 3.5 assists (+112): Dallas has opted to give the 6-foot-9 Flagg a bunch of looks at point guard out of the gate, which seems like a questionable move for a guy who’s just acclimating to NBA life.
The No. 1 overall pick from this past summer is off to a shaky start purely from a numbers standpoint, averaging 13.4 points and 2.8 assists while shooting 41.0% from the floor.
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Flagg has gone over this assist total in three of five games, but he landed on exactly four assists in two of the overs. He also has two games so far with zero assists.
With Anthony Davis and Dereck Lively both out for the Mavericks, Flagg’s size could be an asset in the frontcourt. If they give him more off-ball opportunities in the paint, that should lessen his ceiling as a passer.
Either way, the Pistons are a good matchup to fade Flagg in. Detroit is currently allowing the fewest assists per game.
NBA SGP legs
Cunningham 20+ points (-345): Cunningham’s shot volume is high enough that he should be cashing this milestone prop pretty much every night.
He’s 4-1 vs. this milestone so far, averaging 22.2 PPG on 19.2 field goal attempts (39.6 FG%).
Efficiency hasn’t been Cunningham’s strong suit, but he’s coming off a career-best 46.9 FG% … so things should get better at some point.
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Cunningham was third-team All-NBA a season ago, and he carved up the Mavericks in both matchups:
- Jan. 31 vs. Dallas: 40 points on 17-of-30 shooting
- March 21 at Dallas: 35 points on 15-of-30 shooting
This should be a cinch for Detroit’s primary ball-handler and scorer.
Under 232.5 points (-167): The Pistons and Mavericks rank eighth and 11th in points allowed per game, and I expect the defences to largely win out in this one.
Not having AD hurts the Mavs from a rim protection standpoint, but they’ll also miss his scoring (especially with Kyrie Irving still months away from returning).
Davis scored 22+ points in all four of his full games, and no one else on the team is averaging north of 15.2 PPG.
This under is 4-1 for both the Pistons and the Mavericks so far. And four of Dallas’ five games have gone under 125 points.
Mavericks vs. Pistons predictions made at 3:30 p.m. ET 11/01/2025.
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Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.