The Toronto Maple Leafs and Philadelphia Flyers meet for a Hockey Night in Canada matchup in Philadelphia.
The pregame narrative: This game is practically a pick’em, with Toronto slightly favoured at -127 at the time of writing. The Maple Leafs’ defence and goaltending has been suspect lately, leading to six straight games going over a 6.5-goal total.
Check out my Maple Leafs prop picks vs. the Flyers for the game on Nov. 1, featuring Matvei Michkov and John Tavares.
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Maple Leaf prop picks vs. Flyers
Best Bet: Michkov to record a point (-117)
This might be the least-watched Maple Leafs game in history with the Blue Jays playing in Game 7 of the World Series back in Toronto.
The Jays’ run has taken hold of the city, and deservedly so, meaning no one is really talking about how bad the Maple Leafs have played lately.
- Toronto has a 2-4 record in its last six games. It has allowed 4.3 goals per game in that span with at least three goals in each contest.
- Goaltending was a strength for the Leafs last season. But Anthony Stolarz has a 3.27 GAA and .886 SV% in eight starts. His understudy, Cayden Primeau, has been even worse (4.30 GAA, .838 SV%).
-> Bet on Nylander and Michkov tonight!
Michkov is playing top-line minutes for Philadelphia alongside Owen Tippett and the newly-acquired Trevor Zegras.
He only has five points in 10 games, but I’m not too worried about that. The 2023 No. 7 overall pick had a stellar rookie campaign last year, logging 63 points in 80 games.
Some positive regression seems likely, and the Maple Leafs are in a rut.
Key stat: Michkov is 4-3 against this line in his last seven games.
Best NHL prop picks
Tavares under 2.5 shots (+100): We’re only 10 games into the season, but the Rick Tocchet effect is apparent in Philly.
The Flyers are off to a 6-3-1 start while playing amazing defensive hockey. They’re giving up the fifth-fewest shot attempts (52.31) and shots (23.84) on a 60-minute basis, per Natural Stat Trick.
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Tavares has cleared this line in five straight games, but he went under this line in six straight games before that.
All in all, he’s averaging 2.81 shots per game this season. Expecting him to go under that mark against the Flyers seems reasonable to me.
Maple Leafs prop picks made at 12:15 p.m. ET 11/01/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.